LA-04 Runoff, Predictions and Results

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Please post your predictions for how the Runoff in La-04 will turn out. Then later we can track the results as the come in. Will Black turnout be just like it was in GA? Will Republicans forget about this race and stay home? Who will win and by how much. I will post my predictions after a good nights sleep and review of the latest polls, districts compostion and demographics.

[Tender Branson]

Carmouche (D) - 50.2
Fleming (R) - 48.1

[Ronnie]

Fleming 50, Carmouche 47.5

[Sam Spade]

If what happened in Georgia happens here (under the radar), Fleming should win.  Of course, there's nothing that says it will.  LA runoffs often don't back national trends anyway.

Honestly, I have no clue.  Zero.  Don't know who's got the better turnout operation or whatever.

Just because of who's going to being Prez, I'll say Fleming.  By a few.

[Franzl]

Fleming by 2, but I hope I'm wrong.

What time do polls close?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Which party currently holds this seat?

[Franzl]

Which party currently holds this seat?

GOP, but it's an open seat now.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Which party currently holds this seat?

GOP, but it's an open seat now.

Yes its Jim McCrery's(I hope I am spelling that right) seat and he has had it since the 80's I believe.

I did some research and found that the seat has a PVI of R+13 but it is also 33% AA. So I am just as lost as before as to how it will go. Sam is right LA usually ignores National trends(Just look at the Presidential results). Also as someone else pointed out on the topic about LA-02 that with the exception of La-01 and 02 when a district becomes open in LA it changes parties(La-06 in the special election in 2008, La-03 and 07 swapped hands when they were open in 2004)

However considering that LA clearly is not found of Obama and how AA turnout was down so low in GA I will Guess it will be

Fleming(R) 51%
Carmouche(D) 48% 

[Holmes]

Fleming: 57%
Carmouche: 43%

If the Georgia runoff taught us anything...

[Ronnie]

By the way, at what time do polls open/close?

[Mr.Phips]

Im going to say Carmouche 50%, Fleming 48%. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't know. Just don't know. I wouldn't be surprised at a very, very close race... I also wouldn't be surprised if it isn't close at all. There are too many factors and too volatile an electorate to be sure of much.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

By the way, at what time do polls open/close?

Polls close at 8 PM Central.

[Nhoj]

Fleming: 57%
Carmouche: 43%

If the Georgia runoff taught us anything...

georgia doesnt really apply here as Carmouche is well known in the district possibly liked and its not like its a senate seat either the house is firmly in democratic control already and hes a Conservative dem. but i wont say your flatout wrong as you could be right but im betting this will be closer then georgia.

[Holmes]

^ Maybe, I'm just saying that it's similar in terms of the whole runoff and lower turn out, and there's are two times as much whites than blacks... not that I'm harping on black people, but yeah.

Hopefully I'm wrong. Not that a conservative dem in Louisiana is very important to me...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

53-45 Fleming. The early voting looks bad for Carmouche.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Giving the high AA population in the district that came out for Obama but like most likely stay home and I'm going out on a limb and saying:

Fleming 60%
Carmouche 39%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

53-45 Fleming. The early voting looks bad for Carmouche.

Details or a link would be welcomed

[JohnnyLongtorso]

53-45 Fleming. The early voting looks bad for Carmouche.

Details or a link would be welcomed

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/Portals/0/elections/pdf/1126StatewideStats.pdf

Subtracting Orleans, Jefferson and Terrebone gives 7,378 early votes: 5,816 white (78.8%), 1,428 black (19.4%), 134 other (1.8%). Given that the district is a third AA, it doesn't sound very promising to me.

[Mr.Phips]

53-45 Fleming. The early voting looks bad for Carmouche.

Details or a link would be welcomed

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/Portals/0/elections/pdf/1126StatewideStats.pdf

Subtracting Orleans, Jefferson and Terrebone gives 7,378 early votes: 5,816 white (78.8%), 1,428 black (19.4%), 134 other (1.8%). Given that the district is a third AA, it doesn't sound very promising to me.

The early vote in Louisiana is always heavily Republican. 

[Mr.Phips]

Giving the high AA population in the district that came out for Obama but like most likely stay home and I'm going out on a limb and saying:

Fleming 60%
Carmouche 39%

Oh, please, dont make me laugh too hard.  Carmouche is a highly popular district attorney, while Fleming is a nobody in a district with a heavy Dem registration advantage.  If Fleming does win, its going to be narrowly. 

[Ronnie]

Giving the high AA population in the district that came out for Obama but like most likely stay home and I'm going out on a limb and saying:

Fleming 60%
Carmouche 39%

Sorry DWTL, but no.  Obama did poorly in the district, and Fleming would have won if this election was held on election day.  Don't forget that Cazayoux won his runoff in a district with the same political atmosphere as this one.

I still think that Fleming will win, but it will be super narrow.

[Lunar]

Giving the high AA population in the district that came out for Obama but like most likely stay home and I'm going out on a limb and saying:

Fleming 60%
Carmouche 39%

[The Mikado]

Fleming 52 Carmouche 48.  But, really, I have no clue.

[Ronnie]

Honestly, this election is pretty much win-win.  It's pretty much a Republican versus a Republican.