LA-04 Runoff, Predictions and Results

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Stevens' margin of defeat was lower than Jefferson's, and this is a far more Democratic district than Alaska is Republican.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Stevens' margin of defeat was lower than Jefferson's, and this is a far more Democratic district than Alaska is Republican.

Don't crow to loudly BRTD. Your party did reelect some very crooked people yourselves like Kanjorski, Murtha, Mollohan, and your party did give Jefferson a standing ovation in the House as well. Most of our corrupt people retire(Weller,Renzi, Doolittle and Craig) yours just keep running and usually get reelected.

[rbt48]

Finally the SOS site has all Parishes reported for CD 4.

The Shreveport Times, I'm sure one of the nation's more reputable rags, reports Fleming as the apparent winner:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20081206/NEWS01/81206017

[Ronnie]

Finally the SOS site has all Parishes reported for CD 4.

The Shreveport Times, I'm sure one of the nation's more reputable rags, reports Fleming as the apparent winner:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20081206/NEWS01/81206017

Yep, Fleming won.  For some reason, I was just marginally supporting him.  Hm.

[??????????]

LA 4 had a guy named "Catfish" running. I'd have supported him for having such a cool nickname.

[??????????]

http://bothpartiesarescrewingyou.com/

Awesome!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Finally the SOS site has all Parishes reported for CD 4.

The Shreveport Times, I'm sure one of the nation's more reputable rags, reports Fleming as the apparent winner:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20081206/NEWS01/81206017

Yep, Fleming won.  For some reason, I was just marginally supporting him.  Hm.

I actually had a feling that the rest of Caddo would drop Carmouche to 58% or below and Bossier would put him over the top. I just felt it rolling that way as the results came in. 

[Cylon Candidate]

Sounds like we shouldn't have been surprised by the Cao win:  http://www.nola.com/timespic/stories/index.ssf?/base/news-0/1228028660197320.xml&coll=1

This is a major Republican resurgence with the two apparent wins tonight.  Well ... more seriously, consider this:

I'd have expected that we'd have a black as President before I would have guessed that Louisiana would have ever had the son of Indian immigrants as governor or a Vietnamese immigrant as the Congressional representative from New Orleans.

Cao is a one term wonder who knocked off a corrupt Democrat because a lot of Democrats voted for him just to get rid of Jefferson, including Cylon Candidate. 

Yep.  I won't be voting for Cao again unless he proves to be an amazing rep and the Democrats nominate Jefferson again.

[The Mikado]

Stevens' margin of defeat was lower than Jefferson's, and this is a far more Democratic district than Alaska is Republican.

Don't crow to loudly BRTD. Your party did reelect some very crooked people yourselves like Kanjorski, Murtha, Mollohan, and your party did give Jefferson a standing ovation in the House as well. Most of our corrupt people retire(Weller,Renzi, Doolittle and Craig) yours just keep running and usually get reelected.

Do you have any evidence that Alan Mollohan is actually corrupt, or is it just that he's a huge pork-barreller?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Stevens' margin of defeat was lower than Jefferson's, and this is a far more Democratic district than Alaska is Republican.

Don't crow to loudly BRTD. Your party did reelect some very crooked people yourselves like Kanjorski, Murtha, Mollohan, and your party did give Jefferson a standing ovation in the House as well. Most of our corrupt people retire(Weller,Renzi, Doolittle and Craig) yours just keep running and usually get reelected.

Do you have any evidence that Alan Mollohan is actually corrupt, or is it just that he's a huge pork-barreller?

Can you name me a large pork barreler who your are sure Isn't corrupt?  Most are or at the very least push the limits.

[Ronnie]

Finally the SOS site has all Parishes reported for CD 4.

The Shreveport Times, I'm sure one of the nation's more reputable rags, reports Fleming as the apparent winner:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20081206/NEWS01/81206017

Yep, Fleming won.  For some reason, I was just marginally supporting him.  Hm.

I actually had a feling that the rest of Caddo would drop Carmouche to 58% or below and Bossier would put him over the top. I just felt it rolling that way as the results came in. 

It's funny that that part of my prediction was exactly correct.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[cinyc]

Stevens' margin of defeat was lower than Jefferson's, and this is a far more Democratic district than Alaska is Republican.

Don't crow to loudly BRTD. Your party did reelect some very crooked people yourselves like Kanjorski, Murtha, Mollohan, and your party did give Jefferson a standing ovation in the House as well. Most of our corrupt people retire(Weller,Renzi, Doolittle and Craig) yours just keep running and usually get reelected.

Do you have any evidence that Alan Mollohan is actually corrupt, or is it just that he's a huge pork-barreller?

The way Mollohan has been handling his pork sounds awfully suspicious - funneling money to nonprofits run by his business partners.  He's not your ordinary, run-of-the-mill, send pork home to West Virginia and name everything after me! pork barrel politician.

[rbt48]

Finally the SOS site has all Parishes reported for CD 4.

The Shreveport Times, I'm sure one of the nation's more reputable rags, reports Fleming as the apparent winner:

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20081206/NEWS01/81206017

Yep, Fleming won.  For some reason, I was just marginally supporting him.  Hm.

I actually had a feling that the rest of Caddo would drop Carmouche to 58% or below and Bossier would put him over the top. I just felt it rolling that way as the results came in. 

It's funny that that part of my prediction was exactly correct.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm extremely impressed as 58% in Caddo was the magic number after all. 

Apparently, the later reporting precincts from Caddo were the more suburban parts of Shreveport.

[Lief 🗽]

http://bothpartiesarescrewingyou.com/

Awesome!

Well, I retroactively endorse him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's how Carmouche did percentagewise compared to Landrieu:

Allen: ?, 54.54 Carmouche
Beauregard: 39.70 Landrieu, 31.00 Carmouche (-8.70%)
Bienville: 57.53 Landrieu, 52.13 Carmouche (-5.40%)
Bossier: 39.23 Landrieu, 34.48 Carmouche (-4.75%)
Caddo: 58.44 Landrieu, 56.83 Carmouche (-1.61%)
Claiborne: 52.72 Landrieu, 43.45 Carmouche (-9.27%)
DeSoto: 52.26 Landrieu, 53.31 Carmouche (+1.05%)
Natchitoches: 54.51 Landrieu, 46.72 Carmouche (-7.79%)
Red River: 58.59 Landrieu, 52.68 Carmouche (-5.91%)
Sabine: 38.04 Landrieu, 32.11 Carmouche (-5.93%)
Vernon 40.15 Landrieu, 26.71 Carmouche (-13.44%)
Webster: 48.89 Landrieu, 49.05 Carmouche (+0.16%)

Allen is split between LA-04 and LA-06, so I don't know what her numbers there were for Landrieu. Looks like he really flopped in the south half of the district.

[Sam Spade]

Allen is split between LA-04 and LA-06, so I don't know what her numbers there were for Landrieu. Looks like he really flopped in the south half of the district.

I'll have to examine the precincts in Allen.

More likely in the southern part, he was just viewed as another Democrat, instead of the DA of Caddo Parish, which gives a certain amount of name/face prestige and disconnects him from you-know-who...

[Ronnie]

In LA-02, the percentage that the Democrat will get in 2010 will be depressing.

[Holmes]

Depends if Cao is good to the people of New Orleans and Jefferson parish votes overwhelmingly for Cao. Though it really just takes a generic Democrat to win LA-02.

[Ronnie]

Depends if Cao is good to the people of New Orleans and Jefferson parish votes overwhelmingly for Cao. Though it really just takes a generic Democrat to win LA-02.

Cao would have to be massively popular and pretty much have a household name in New Orleans to have a chance in '10.  He would have to appeal to the black community like no other Republican has.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In LA-02, the percentage that the Democrat will get in 2010 will be depressing.

It happens in these districts. You think Walt Minnick has a shot at winning against any non-Bill Sali Republican in 2010?

[Ronnie]

In LA-02, the percentage that the Democrat will get in 2010 will be depressing.

It happens in these districts. You think Walt Minnick has a shot at winning against any non-Bill Sali Republican in 2010?

Ur, it's different.  Minnick will be able to build a reputation, just as people like Charlie Melancon have, who ran unopposed for his house seat.  I agree that the Republican will be the favorite in any case, though.

If Cao wants a political future, though, he would run against Vitter in the Republican primary rather than be a sacrificial limb in the 2010 race.  I frankly think he has a chance if he shows to be a competent congressman.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Melancon's district is not even remotely comparable, as it's largely a conservative Democrat seat. Plus Melancon was initially elected under fairly non-controversial circumstances, his opponent may have been bad but he wasn't blatantly corrupt or Bill Sali. Melanon fits it well. Minnick does not fit his district well, neither does Cao, to put it mildly.

[socaldem]

Depends if Cao is good to the people of New Orleans and Jefferson parish votes overwhelmingly for Cao. Though it really just takes a generic Democrat to win LA-02.

Cao would have to be massively popular and pretty much have a household name in New Orleans to have a chance in '10.  He would have to appeal to the black community like no other Republican has.

If Cao does a reasonably good job and doesn't get blown out by too much in '10, I think that he might have a chance post-redistricting in '12 when the district will have to grow by quite a lot to make up for the post-Katrina population loss.

That said, if Cao wants to eventually run statewide, he would be advised to develop a very conservative record that is not in line with the district, to forego reelection and just aim for another office.  If not Senator, he could try for LG or something in 2011.

[Ronnie]

Depends if Cao is good to the people of New Orleans and Jefferson parish votes overwhelmingly for Cao. Though it really just takes a generic Democrat to win LA-02.

Cao would have to be massively popular and pretty much have a household name in New Orleans to have a chance in '10.  He would have to appeal to the black community like no other Republican has.

If Cao does a reasonably good job and doesn't get blown out by too much in '10, I think that he might have a chance post-redistricting in '12 when the district will have to grow by quite a lot to make up for the post-Katrina population loss.

That said, if Cao wants to eventually run statewide, he would be advised to develop a very conservative record that is not in line with the district, to forego reelection and just aim for another office.  If not Senator, he could try for LG or something in 2011.

It would be awesome if the district combines with LA-01 or something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There will be pressure to keep a black majority district in the general area, I think. Which may have interesting knock-on effects in neighbouring districts.