ABC News poll says Bush +10 (LV), Bush +6 (RV) in WI, Feingold +6 over Michels

[Sam Spade]

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/wnt/Politics/wisconsin_poll_040922.html

Winning Wisconsin
Well Targeted Campaign Helps Boost Bush in Wisconsin

Analysis by Dalia Sussman

Sept. 22, 2004— Better targeting and strength in his cornerstone issues are boosting President Bush in Wisconsin, where the president's campaign shows more effective voter contact, and where he holds huge leads in terrorism, security, leadership and clarity.  
 
Retail politics is helping Bush in two ways: Registered voters are six points more apt to have been contacted by his campaign than by John Kerry's, 25 percent to 19 percent. And six in 10 of those reached by Bush's campaign support him, while Kerry's supported by fewer than half of the Wisconsin voters his campaign has personally contacted.
 
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

As elsewhere, economic concerns work best for Kerry in Wisconsin. But here he only runs about evenly with Bush in trust to handle the economy, compared with an eight-point Kerry lead on the economy in an ABC News poll in Pennsylvania last week. And Bush hammers Kerry on a range of attributes, including personal favorability.

All told, this ABC News poll finds Bush leading Kerry by 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in Wisconsin, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader. (Nader is on the ballot for now. Excluding him it's a similar 54 percent to 44 percent Bush lead.) Among the broader group of all registered voters, it's 50 percent-44 percent-2 percent with Nader, and 51 percent to 45 percent without him.

read more at link above

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I don't believe this poll.  Bush is probably up 6-8 points in WI.

IMO

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'd say 3-4.  I find it interesting all these madia outlets that are supposed to be liberal are coming out with these polls showing outrageous Bush leads.  

[The Vorlon]

I don't believe this poll.  Bush is probably up 6-8 points in WI.

The Frozen Tundra of Lambert Lambeau Field.....

IMO

Seems high to me too...

I have been saying that a lot of late, however...

The State polls (typically do not weight by party ID) are behaving very differently that those national polls which do...

Will have to think about this

[Sam Spade]

I might note that about a week ago, Matthew Dowd mentioned to a Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reporter in a article that he thought Wisconsin was coming close to being out of battleground status.

That being said, I'm coming close to believing what you prediction is with regards to Wisconsin at this moment.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Feingold carries a LOT of respect in this state, among both conservatives and liberals.  His only weakness is his vote on partial-birth abortion, which will cause a considerable number of voters to turn away from him.

Still, it will be very difficult (but not impossible) for Michaels to defeat him.  I'm starting to think that a lot of WI Bush voters will vote Feingold to "balance" their ballot.  If WI goes +5 for Bush, most likely 7% or more of Bush voters will do this.

Feingold has a 4-to-1 shot in the case of a Kerry victory, and a 2-to-1, or maybe even a 3-to-1 shot in the case of Bush carrying the state.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'd say 3-4.  I find it interesting all these madia outlets that are supposed to be liberal are coming out with these polls showing outrageous Bush leads.  

I think Bush's gains nationally have been mostly concentrated in the battleground states.

Vorlon, do you agree?

[CARLHAYDEN]

I'd say 3-4.  I find it interesting all these madia outlets that are supposed to be liberal are coming out with these polls showing outrageous Bush leads.  

Check my threat, "interesting developments" in the salvage area for an explanation.

BTW, I agree that Bush has a 3-4 point lead in Wisconsin at this time.

[The Vorlon]

I'd say 3-4.  I find it interesting all these madia outlets that are supposed to be liberal are coming out with these polls showing outrageous Bush leads.  

Vorlon, do you agree?

Not really sure actually.

Bush won Ohio by 4, now up 8 => 4% change
Bush won Missouri by 3, Now up 7 => 4% change

If you average the polls of the "battelground" states Bush is, across the board doing almost exactly 4% better in the battleground states.

A few exceptions, I think he has gained maybe 6 in Pennsylvania, and very little in Michigan and Washington...

The State polls tend to be a bit more volatile.

Lets see what thinks look ike on October 1st..

[AuH2O]

Michels has been a sort of pleasant surprise... even a GOP friendly poll like this might help get him national money he needs to have a chance.

Given his low name rec... if he's really 10-12 points behind instead of 5, that would still be pretty damn good news. I'd be curious to see a Feingold re-elect/someone new poll, but I doubt anyone will do one.

[Sam Spade]

I probably might mention that using SurveyUSA's cross-polling methodology, ABC's polls (minus WaPo) are among the most reliable.