Detailed Shelby County, TN results

[memphis]

http://www.commercialappeal.com/PrecinctVoting/

Pretty predictable racial voting, though, to be fair, I must point out that results are always the same regardless of the race of the Democratic candidate

I voted early, so my vote is probably not included, but my precinct is the first one under White Station Middle School under Memphis.

I wish they had included returns from the individual early voting sites.

[NOVA Green]

http://www.commercialappeal.com/PrecinctVoting/

Pretty predictable racial voting, though, to be fair, I must point out that results are always the same regardless of the race of the Democratic candidate

I voted early, so my vote is probably not included, but my precinct is the first one under White Station Middle School under Memphis.

I wish they had included returns from the individual early voting sites.

Have you posted this link yet on Alcon's precinct thread?

Also, if you have the link to the maps that would be cool as well.... 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Thank you this is too awesome

The first precinct I looked at was the Anointed Temple of Praise, which I picked chiefly because it has such an awesome name. The Anointed Temple of Praise voted Obama 1377-118, so I'm guessing it's 90% + black

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The CA map is crap    I made 50 Shelby Co. election maps last week after the SOVC report became available but I made them for non-Atlasians and had not converted them for AtlasiaColor.  I manually changed the colors real quick and here they are below:

Overall Presidential Result by Precinct


There was a 10-point swing to McCain on Election Day vs. Early Voting which changed the precinct wins a bit - especially in Cordova.

Early Votes
Obama  68%    Tuke 51%
McCain 32%     Alexander 47%
Presidential Early Votes by Precinct



Election Day Votes
Obama 57%    Tuke 39%
McCain 42%    Alexander 57%
Presidential Election Day Votes by Precinct


Absentee Votes
Obama 54%    Tuke 42%
McCain 46%    Alexander 56%
Presidential Absentee Votes by Precinct


U.S. Senate
Alexander did rather well in Shelby County, and got between 22-25% of the African-American vote.

[NOVA Green]

The CA map is crap    I made 50 Shelby Co. election maps last week after the SOVC report became available but I made them for non-Atlasians and had not converted them for AtlasiaColor.  I manually changed the colors real quick and here they are below:

Overall Presidential Result by Precinct


There was a 10-point swing to McCain on Election Day vs. Early Voting which changed the precinct wins a bit - especially in Cordova.

Early Votes
Obama  68%    Tuke 51%
McCain 32%     Alexander 47%
Presidential Early Votes by Precinct



Election Day Votes
Obama 57%    Tuke 39%
McCain 42%    Alexander 57%
Presidential Election Day Votes by Precinct


Absentee Votes
Obama 54%    Tuke 42%
McCain 46%    Alexander 56%
Presidential Absentee Votes by Precinct


U.S. Senate
Alexander did rather well in Shelby County, and got between 22-25% of the African-American vote.

Awesome!

Any key findings to report?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Another thing that is interesting about the US Senate race is the dropoff by precinct.

In some western heavily African-American precincts the dropoff in the Senate race was as high as 25%.  When you combine that with Lamar Alexander's stellar 22% of the black vote, it means that in some precincts the Democratic Senate nominee only got a little over half the vote there.

Turnout to U.S. Senate Dropoff:

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Presidential Swing - 2004 to 2008 (atlas standard swing key)



The heaviest swings to Obama occured in neighborhoods that are transitioning (or have completed their transition in the last four years) from white to black.  (Forest Hill, Cordova, Raleigh, etc).

The biggest swing to Obama occured in Forest Hill, the big precinct in the southeast where the TN-385 sheild is on the map.  To say there is an "exodus" of whites leaving the precinct might imply a slower pace than what is actually occuring.  It swung nearly 40 points between 2004 and 2008.  It was farmland and exurbs in 1996, a hardcore GOP precinct in 2000, a roughly even precinct in 2004, and McCain hovered around the 30% mark now.

The swings to McCain occured in the northern rural areas that mirror the rest of Tennessee, and in East Memphis and Berclair.  Berclair is mostly blue collar, white, and has an older population.  The thing that the precincts that swung to McCain in East Memphis have in common is relatively high populations of Orthodox Jews... don't know if this alone accounted for the swing though.

[memphis]

Nice work, don! How'd you get the early vote map? You could vote anywhere in the county you wanted to.

[Franzl]

The rate at which blacks skipped the senate race is disgraceful...to be perfectly honest.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The rate at which blacks skipped the senate race is disgraceful...to be perfectly honest.

They were supposed to vote for someone they had never heard of?

Nice work, don! How'd you get the early vote map? You could vote anywhere in the county you wanted to.

The Election Commission produces a report called SOVC (Statement of Votes Cast) that has each precinct split up into EV, E-Day, Absentee, and Provisional results. 

When you Early vote, your vote is attached to your precinct and included in the report.  It looks like the precinct report on the SCEC website does include all forms of votes cast by voters in that precinct - but it is not the detailed "SOVC" version.

The full set of maps and SOVC report converted to Excel:
http://www.shelbygop.org/files/2008ElectionResultsMaps.pdf
http://www.shelbygop.org/files/110408-precinctresults.xls

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some areas look to have gone for the Senate race Dem, but not Obama.

[minionofmidas]

Look closer, Al.

[Sam Spade]

Excellent stuff.

[memphis]

The rate at which blacks skipped the senate race is disgraceful...to be perfectly honest.

They were supposed to vote for someone they had never heard of?

Nice work, don! How'd you get the early vote map? You could vote anywhere in the county you wanted to.

The Election Commission produces a report called SOVC (Statement of Votes Cast) that has each precinct split up into EV, E-Day, Absentee, and Provisional results. 

When you Early vote, your vote is attached to your precinct and included in the report.  It looks like the precinct report on the SCEC website does include all forms of votes cast by voters in that precinct - but it is not the detailed "SOVC" version.

The full set of maps and SOVC report converted to Excel:
http://www.shelbygop.org/files/2008ElectionResultsMaps.pdf
http://www.shelbygop.org/files/110408-precinctresults.xls

I thought the whole point of our voting system is that nobody knows who you voted for. You're telling me that they are matching my vote with my precinct (and therefore me), even though I didn't vote there? Is that legal?

[NOVA Green]

Presidential Swing - 2004 to 2008 (atlas standard swing key)



The heaviest swings to Obama occured in neighborhoods that are transitioning (or have completed their transition in the last four years) from white to black.  (Forest Hill, Cordova, Raleigh, etc).

The biggest swing to Obama occured in Forest Hill, the big precinct in the southeast where the TN-385 sheild is on the map.  To say there is an "exodus" of whites leaving the precinct might imply a slower pace than what is actually occuring.  It swung nearly 40 points between 2004 and 2008.  It was farmland and exurbs in 1996, a hardcore GOP precinct in 2000, a roughly even precinct in 2004, and McCain hovered around the 30% mark now.

The swings to McCain occured in the northern rural areas that mirror the rest of Tennessee, and in East Memphis and Berclair.  Berclair is mostly blue collar, white, and has an older population.  The thing that the precincts that swung to McCain in East Memphis have in common is relatively high populations of Orthodox Jews... don't know if this alone accounted for the swing though.

I'm not sure how you can easily define a precinct as Orthodox Jew in a city like Memphis.... id there really such a large Orthodox population that it can be drilled down that much?

[memphis]

We do have a decent Orthodox population and many live in the blue square just west of the 240 shield, but they're far from a majority of the precinct. Also, the Orthodox weren't exactly wild about Kerry either. This precinct (Shady Grove Elem) is a pretty fancy neighborhood. For lack of a better word, I'd describe it as very "uptown." Very much part of the city yet low density and far removed from poorer areas. I'd say it has more to do with Obama's tax proposals than anything else.

[Franzl]

The rate at which blacks skipped the senate race is disgraceful...to be perfectly honest.

They were supposed to vote for someone they had never heard of?

Sure, what does that have to do with it?

(assuming of course that your implication is correct...but I think it's speculation, to an extent.)

[minionofmidas]

I thought the whole point of our voting system is that nobody knows who you voted for. You're telling me that they are matching my vote with my precinct (and therefore me), even though I didn't vote there? Is that legal?

As long as there's several early votes by people from your precinct, they technically can't tell which vote was your vote.
Still. There's a reason why most states don't apportion absentees and earlies and provisionals back to the very precinct.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I thought the whole point of our voting system is that nobody knows who you voted for. You're telling me that they are matching my vote with my precinct (and therefore me), even though I didn't vote there? Is that legal?

As long as there's several early votes by people from your precinct, they technically can't tell which vote was your vote.
Still. There's a reason why most states don't apportion absentees and earlies and provisionals back to the very precinct.

Thank heavens Shelby County does apportion this information, as it allows far more data maps to be made

[Husker]

I lived in suburban Memphis for a while in my younger days and nothing about the map surprised me. I was actually pleasantly surprised that Obama broke 30% in the precinct I lived in. I've always thought Memphis was an interesting city politically because there are a fair number of progressive white people there, particularly in Midtown. I was amused that one of the precincts in south Memphis went 515-0 for Obama.