What 2008 prediction are you most proud of?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Me: Being insistent from Day 1 that Giuliani never had any chance at the nomination.

[MK]

That Obama would defeat Hillary.

Enough said.

[minionofmidas]

After Gilchrest went down in the primary, I was pretty much alone in stating Harris wasn't a shoo-in for the general.

[Josh/Devilman88]

All of them

[Lief 🗽]

I said that Indiana would be a tossup narrowly won thanks to Obama's superior ground game months ago.

[Dr. Cynic]

I never had a doubt in my mind that Obama would win the Presidency.

[7,052,770]

Democrats taking MS-1

[HappyWarrior]

Democrats winning MD-1

[Lunar]

That CA-04 would be closer than people were pretending it was.

And being 0.03% off the national margin of victory.

[Eraserhead]

That Obama would defeat Hillary.

Enough said.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There were a few congressional predictions that I'm very pleased with, though I didn't post them up here (fool that I am) so they don't really count.

In general the thing I'm "proud" of is spotting the patterns that would dominate the Democratic primary early on; Iowa and New Hampshire aren't exactly microcosms or anything, but there was enough stuff to look at if you knew what you were looking for.

Ah. I've remembered. The link between manufacturing employment (in the North), especially in places that had always been better off than their class and employment structures would seem to suggest, and big swings to Obama. It was the only explanation for the Indiana polls that made sense.

I'm a little irritated that I didn't pick up the importance of media markets (but then as a Britisher I think I've an excuse there. And I won't make that mistake again) and that, despite toying with it a couple of times, I didn't really get quite how strong Obama's metropolitan appeal would be.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In general the thing I'm "proud" of is spotting the patterns that would dominate the Democratic primary early on; Iowa and New Hampshire aren't exactly microcosms or anything, but there was enough stuff to look at if you knew what you were looking for.

Really? But J. J. said that Obama collapsed among the white working class in March!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama winning Virginia.

[Boris]

eh, I was actually pretty terrible this year. Showed my ignorance of the Democratic nomination system by stating near 100% probabilities of a Clinton nomination after the Nevada Caucus. Missed a whopping four states this year (IN, where I predicted McCain would win 51% of the vote, NC, OH [last Rasmussen poll f'ed me over there] MO, and NE-02). Mediocre, but certainly not as terrible as J.J. or those predicting PA to be below the (D) national average, all the polls to be magically wrong in VA, NJ and MN to be tossups, Obama to break 48% in GA, etc.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I WAS really proud of my Ted Stevens pick until he wound up losing

There really wasn't much for me to be proud of this election cycle

[Brittain33]

I've proven myself to be pretty weak at predictions this year--if I got stuff right, it's because I didn't hesitate to throw tons of stuff against the wall to see what stuck. Yes, I'm glad I got NE-2 right and put stock in Obama's organization and advertising there, but it's not as meaningful when you're also predicting that every other borderline competitive state could go for Obama.

I'm proudest of the fact I never bought into the myths about Massachusetts and predicted it would vote at least as strongly for Obama as it did for Kerry.

[Marokai Backbeat]

That Obama would defeat Hillary.

Enough said.

[Joe Biden 2020]

That Hillary Clinton will not be the 44th President, and I believe its because America wanted to move beyond the Clinton-Bush era of the past 28 years.

[memphis]

I knew oil prices would crash.

[Smid]

My Indiana call back in March.

[© tweed]

that the Mariners would suck

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Getting SF right while underestimating Obama's statewide margin by 12%.

[Meeker]

That come election night Dino Rossi wouldn't really have much of a shot at winning

[Lunar]

     Getting SF right while underestimating Obama's statewide margin by 12%.

That's not particularly hard to do.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Getting SF right while underestimating Obama's statewide margin by 12%.

That's not particularly hard to do.

     People don't need to know that.