I'm posting this thread as an American who has just heard yesterdays news that an American was beheaded in Iraq, and one will likely meet the same fate in 24 hours.
I'm posting this thread as an American who sees his country making the same fatal policy decisions that were made in Vietnam 40 years ago.
I'm posting this thread because our country, Democrat-Republican-Whatever, better brace itself for things to get A LOT worse in Iraq, and
we should have seen it coming.I'm going to let you in on a not so dirty little secret that we all fear but don't want to own up to......
There IS no solution on the ground in Iraq.That is why in Kerry's speech yesterday, those looking for Kerry's 'silver bullet' to Iraq didn't find one. That is why Bush's current strategy of:
a) Bring in as much international help as you can.
b) 'Iraqify' the security forces as much as possible.
c) Continue reconstruction efforts, emphasising basic needs.
d) Hold elections to legitimize Iraq as quickly as possible.
......is the same prescription the Democrats called for all during 2003 and Bush belatedly embraced.
There is no real fundemental difference, and never has been, between Kerry's and Bush's current policy on
solving Iraq. The only possible difference might be......might be...... Kerry being able to bring in more help from the West (financial mostly) because Bush has so strained our relations and the Europeans would want to start fresh with a new administration. Don't count on troops though no matter whose elected. The Europeans are not going to replace American Graves with European ones.
We are facing a Catch-22 in each of our policy objectives which all point very clearly to the fact that Iraq is a failed foreign policy initiative and there is no solution to Iraq that will satisfy our current stated policy goals.1) To get to our end objective - a legitimatly elected democratic Iraq - we must have security.
2) To get security we must destroy or diminish the Insurgency.
3) To destroy or quell the insurgents we must either - A. Train Iraqi security forces to take over........ but they won't be capable in the near term....OR
B. Take the offensive as never before with our military, yet that will certainly further unify disparate groups against us or even drive more moderates against us because the civilian toll will be intolerable.
4) Reconstruction is of course a joke until we can achieve security, which again leads us right back to point #1.
BUSH'S "CATASTROPHIC SUCCESS' IN IRAQThats right folks.....that is how this president has recently characterized our current situation in Iraq......
Lets review just how we got here and how 'Catastrophic' this administration ineptitude has been:
Lets start with quotes from top Republicans from this Sunday:
Sen. Richard Lugar: 'This is the incompetence in the administration.' referring to the fact that only $1 billion of $18.4 billion allocated by Congress has been spent on reconstruction to date.
Sen. Chuck Hagel: 'The fact is, we're in deep trouble in Iraq...and I think we're going to have to look at some recalibration of policy,'
Sen. John McCain: 'We made serious mistakes,'.......and Mr Bush had been 'perhaps not as straight as maybe we'd like to see' on Iraq.
So...... Just what were those mistakes?
?
Setting aside the well known arguments of whether we should have invaded Iraq in the first place (Mistake #1).....once that fateful decision was made, just how INCOMPETANT has this administraton been in handling its own damn war?
? The three biggest mistakes once we were in the country are:
1)
Not enough troops. Its well known that Gen Zinni and others have said that we would need AT LEAST 250,000 troops to properly secure Iraq AFTER the shooting stopped. Looting and wide spread crime was the result. There are now more troops per capita in Bosnia than in Iraq.
2)
Not allowing other countries to participate in the reconstruction effort.Wanting the lucritive contracts and the reconstruction to be awarded only to those countries that participated in the war, the administration blew a chance to get more investment faster into the country and a chance to smooth over the rough relations with some of its allies. Even begging won't get countries to invest in there now......
3)
Not Risking the Bloodshed When It Was Necessary - We've seen it twice now - once in Falluja and once in Najef. Each time we have confronted the insurgency in a large stand up fight, we don't destroy the enemy, resulting in embolding the Insurgents and putting off to another day the inevitable fight when they are only stronger.
THE WAR IS ESCALATING - NOT DIMINISHING- In March of this year we were facing an
average of 700+ attacks a month from the insurgents. In
August that number rose to 2500+ and September is well on its way above that number.
- In March the average insurgent cell consisted of 3 to 12 members. Today they average 15 to 25 and there are estimated to be many, many more active, organized, coordinated, and well financed cells. More striking, they are being equiped in many cases its being found, with brand new hardware (probably from Iran or Syria or both) - not Sadaam era leftovers.
- The past 5 months (April- August) has seen more American wounded
3900 than the 13 months prior to that (March 03 thru March 04) -
3300.
- The past five months we have
averaged 75 Deaths a month, the previous 13 months before that we
averaged 46 Deaths a month.
Yet dispite this near doubling of our casualty rate in the past 5 months the insurgency, even according to the pentagon, is getting much stronger - not weaker.
ELECTIONS IN IRAQThe administration is sticking by its long held goal that elections will occur by mid January and a fully sovereign democratic Iraq will emerge.
Not Likely.......
- The UN, which is in charge of organizing and carrying out the elections, estimate there will have to be betwwen 2500 to 3500 polling places across Iraq for a fair and undisputed election to occur.
We Can't Even Secure The Green Zone.....much less the ques for new Iraq police recruits!
- The UN estimates that it needs to register a daunting 12 million eligible Iraqis for the election. That amounts to approximately
102,000 Iraqi's A DAY from now till mid January. That would be daunting even by western standards........with security. The UN began that process this week......
- There has been talk of late in the administration that they may 'side step' hot beds like Falluja or Sadr City for the election fearing the polling places will be too unsecure. They cite our own experience during the Civil War as an example of how an election can occur and still be legitimate with only half the country voting.
I can think of no quicker way to de-legitimize a government, and hence strengthen the Insurgency, than to have only 'parts' of the country participate. Especially when that election took place while proped up by the point of the bayonet of a foreign power.
This leaves us with the all too glaring fact that Mr. George W. Bush will not talk about and Kerry has only begun to touch upon.
We have passed the point at which our stated policy objectives can be achieved We can, and likely will, begin intensive military operations after our own election to clear these 'No-Go' zones of insurgents. That is still six weeks away and with each passing week the Insurgency gets stronger making it much more likely it will cost more American lives once its begun.
This is a purely political calculation on the part of Mr. Bush that Will Cost More Lives.If you doubt me......then please provide me with ONE military reason why we won't do it now.......
This Catacomb of Catch -22's is all the more alarming when one considers the findings of the recently completed National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.......potential Civil War in Iraq.
I recall all too vividly in November of last year, at the height of the first dramatic increase in Insurgent activity, that it was pretty much a unanimous belief among our nations national security experts (both inside and outside the administration) that we had AT MOST 6 months to secure Iraq or our window of opportunity for success would be closed. That was 9 months ago.......
The new Intelligence Estimate has now stated that, belatedly, our window of opportunity for success is rapidly closing and the likely result if that happens is.......Civil War in Iraq. A result that, in my view, is not a mere possibility - but a probability.
If these elections are not seen as legitimate (indeed ARE legitimate), if they take place with mush of the country excluded because we can't secure the place, if they produce a result that will further diminish Suni power, or if they result in a strong centralized government that wants to impose Islamic Law onto the Kurds.......the likely result will indeed be Civil War.
And that folks is where we find ourselves today no matter who is the winner on November 2nd.....
That is why there are no 'Silver Bullets' from either side to solving Iraq.....Because there is no exceptable 'American' solution to Iraq.......
And that is why there is no real difference between either sides position to solving Iraq......because there is no solution.
If we as a Nation have a shred of courage, we'll admit our policy in Iraq has failed.And that is why this election should not be about who has a plan to 'solve' Iraq, but about who has made the biggest strategic National Security blunder, certainly since Vietnam, but in all probability IN OUR HISTORY........ That of course is none other than
George W. Bush.....
