2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Hash]

Hash - great map. You've got an error in the Green map around Darmstadt though. CDU around Kassel, too. Damn enclaves.

Fix'd

Trugarez!

[minionofmidas]

Looking forward to the next elections... Presidential. Provided that nobody switches parties and no Bundestag overhang seat falls vacant, this is the number of electors by party ("to" figures will be decided by drawing of lots):

CDU & CSU 500
SPD 415-6
FDP 107
Greens 93-5
Left 91-2
FW 10
NPD 3
DVU 1
i 2 (Bundestag members who quit the CDU resp. Left)

Tradition dictates that the SPD will cede one seat to the SSW.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bigger picture: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=1041

Edit: messed the layout up a little. Oh well.

[Hash]

What is the Riederwald and Gallus like?

[minionofmidas]

What is the Riederwald and Gallus like?

The Riederwald is entirely estateland, though construction dates vary from 1910 to the early 70s - indeed all the major construction styles of German "social" architecture of the period can be found, from pretty 6- or 8-unit structures from the 1910's (some with wooden porches and balconies!) via ugly Bauhaus-style single-family structures (and some very beautiful Bauhaus-style single-family structures on Engelsplatz. Yes, it's named for Friedrich Engels.)  to some 50s additions and a couple of ugly 70s towerblocks fronting the estate's northern end. It's very working-class but still very predominantly ethnic German. Close traditional ties to Bornheim (which used to be a very working-class area once too. But is mostly not estateland).





The latter image is from Praunheim but will do as an example of what I call  "ugly Bauhaus-style architecture".

The Gallus has estate bits and privately-built bits, but owes its working-class character to railway lines and factories (now mostly gone).

The Gallus is basically not yet built here, but the trainlines are there - it's the triangle between them.
The Gallus, especially it's privately built parts, is now largely an immigrant-dominated area (citizenship rates are over 50% but...) My mom grew up in the Gallus. In the estate part, too.

[minionofmidas]

I note that the Left polled under 5.00000% in 26 constituencies and had losses in 13.

under 5: Waldeck-Frankenberg, Fulda, Lahn-Dill, Gießen II, Limburg-Weilburg, Hochtaunus, Wetterau, Rheingau-Taunus, Wiesbaden II, Main-Taunus, Offenbach Land, Darmstadt-Dieburg, Bergstraße (except where noted: all. By district/city the party polled over 5% in both Gießen and Wiesbaden. A portion of Darmstadt-Dieburg district is in Darmstadt city II constituency, of course, and the Left actually polled over 5% in that portion, but the district's under 5. Rotenburg constituency is the only other trans-district one, and here too there are complications: Not only is the Hersfeld-Rotenburg portion of the constituency under 5%, the whole of Hersfeld-Rotenburg district is.)

losses: Kassel rural, Kassel city, Waldeck-Frankenberg, Schwalm-Eder, Eschwege-Witzenhausen, Rotenburg, Fulda II, Lahn-Dill II (by district: losses in both Fulda and Lahn-Dill. A gain in Hersfeld-Rotenburg - didn't check how the Rotenburg portion of that behaved. A loss in Werra-Meißner.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The top photo I like.

[minionofmidas]

Some results from other Hessian cities...

Darmstadt. Map.
(West, Bessungen and Eberstadt are in the II constituency, btw. In case you want to get the exact boundary into your state map template. )

City             t 62.9 C 28.7 G 24.8 S 21.1 F 15.1 L 7.2
Centre         t 59.2 C 26.0 G 25.0 S 23.3 F 14.1 L 8.4
North           t 61.4 G 31.4 S 23.3 C 19.3 F 11.7 L 10.5
East             t 67.5 C 30.8 G 25.2 F 18.3 S 17.6 L 5.7
Bessungen  t 71.1 G 28.5 C 27.4 S 18.8 F 16.2 L 6.7
West           t 58.7 C 30.3 S 23.3 G 20.2 F 14.9 L 7.3
Eberstadt    t 65.2 C 34.5 G 21.2 S 18.6 F 17.4 L 5.7
Arheilgen     t 63.6 C 31.9 S 22.1 G 21.8 F 15.5 L 5.8
Kranichstein t 54.9 C 33.2 G 24.2 S 20.2 F 12.9 L 7.2
Wixhausen   t 63.2 C 33.2 S 24.0 G 20.1 F 14.6 L 5.2

Color me shocked at the Kranichstein Green result, btw. Not a neighborhood I had down as a Green stronghold area (wholly 60s/70s built.)

Wiesbaden. Map in this thread.

Results.

This doesn't express turnout as a percentage so I'm adding that. Mitte 51.8, Northeast 67.9, Southeast 62.4, Rheingauviertel 52.2, Klarenthal 48.7, West End 51.5, Sonnenberg 71.9, Bierstadt 64.8, Erbenheim 53.4, Biebrich 55.3, Dotzheim 53.1, Rambach 65.1, Heßloch 78.5(!), Kloppenheim 68.0, Igstadt 66.5, Nordenstadt 64.9, Delkenheim 60.1, Schierstein 56.9, Frauenstein 69.3, Naurod 73.2, Auringen 70.3, Medenbach 60.9, Breckenheim 68.1, Amöneburg 45.5, Kastel 48.9, Kostheim 48.0

Can't find Kassel by neighborhood. Can't find Kassel 2008, either. (I can find the 2005 federals... but I had those before.)

Hanau. Map.
City                                     t 54.3 C 38.6 S 20.3 F 16.6 G 13.6 L 6.2
Groß Auheim incl Wolfgang t 57.6 C 38.0 S 21.1 G 15.4 F 14.2 L 6.4
Klein Auheim                       t 59.0 C 43.0 S 19.2 F 15.8 G 13.2 L 4.1
Steinheim                            t 61.1 C 40.5 F 18.2 S 17.9 G 13.7 L 4.6
Mittelbuchen                       t 65.5 C 40.5 S 21.3 F 18.0 G 13.3 L 3.7
Centre                                t 45.7 C 36.0 S 21.7 F 15.7 G 14.0 L 7.5
South East                          t 45.9 C 36.0 S 22.0 F 16.9 G 12.1 L 8.2
Kesselstadt                         t 53.9 C 38.6 S 19.2 F 16.9 G 14.0 L 7.1
North West                          t 57.3 C 38.1 F 19.7 S 19.3 G 13.0 L 6.6
Lamboy                                t 40.7 C 34.2 S 26.0 F 12.3 G 10.7 L 9.4

Oh Hanau, Hanau... the sins committed unto you during the great Verwaltungsreform shall be visited on the offenders' descendants unto the 719th generation.

Offenbach: Watch this space for local breakdown; this is mathwork.
City: t 53,6% CDU 33,9% SPD 21,2% FDP 14,2% Greens 18,4% Left 7,5%

[Franzl]

For anyone that's interested in the full preliminary result:

CDU 963,800 / 37.2% (+0.4%)
SPD 614,653 / 23.7% (-13.0%)
FDP 420,383 / 16.2% (+6.8%)
Greens 356,007 / 13.7% (+6.2%)
Left 139,080 / 5.4% (+0.3%)

"Freie Wähler" 42,139 / 1.6% (+0.7%)
NPD 22,184 / 0.9% (nc)
REP 15,697 / 0.6% (-0.4%)
Pirates 13,784 / 0.5% (+0.2%)
BüSo 4,130 / 0.2% (+0,2%)

______________________________

total turnout: 2,670,412 / 61.0% (-3.3%)

invalid votes: 78,555 / 2.9% (+0.5%) (those invalid votes are included in turnout figures in Germany)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Had a go at Darmstadt.

[minionofmidas]

First attempt for Offenbach... statistische Bezirke, pretending that postal voters didn't vote. (Unless they changed them, I have the borders of the postal precincts actually. Will do complete results by them later. Problem is that their boundaries are wholly illogical as they just went down the list of precincts until they had enough people, then called that a postal voting precinct.)

City t 53,6 C 33.9 S 21.2 G 18.4 F 14.2 L 7.5
postal vote C 41.5 S 18.2 G 15.8 F 14.8 L 6.9
ex t 45.9 C 32.6 S 21.7 G 18.9 F 14.1 L 7.6 ...cluding postal vote
11 t 34.6 S 26.1 G 23.5 C 22.8 F 12.5 L 10.5
12 t 38.0 S 25.4 C 24.9 G 23.2 L 12.1 F 9.5
13 t 37.3 S 25.9 G 24.6 C 22.8 L 11.1 F 10.5
14 t 40.5 S 27.9 C 21.6 G 20.3 F 13.8 L 13.1
15 t 44.3 C 27.1 G 23.6 S 18.8 F 16.9 L 9.2
16 t 38.6 C 25.4 S 24.9 G 21.6 F 11.4 L 10.5
21 t 41.0 G 26.1 C 24.5 S 23.7 F 12.4 L 8.4
22 t 42.8 C 34.0 S 23.4 G 15.5 F 14.5 L 7.7
23 t 44.8 C 27.6 G 24.0 S 22.7 F 11.0 L 9.4
24 t 43.6 C 32.9 S 23.8 G 18.7 F 9.3 L 8.3
25 t 42.9 C 33.2 S 23.0 G 17.8 F 13.4 L 7.8
26 t 50.5 C 27.1 S 21.3 G 20.6 F 17.9 L 7.8
31 t 47.8 C 34.7 G 18.3 S 16.5 F 13.6 L 5.7
32 t 48.2 C 32.8 S 25.3 G 17.8 F 11.6 L 6.9
33 t 52.4 C 41.1 S 19.1 F 15.7 G 13.7 L 5.2
41 t 34.4 C 34.7 S 26.8 L 11.0 G 10.1 F 9.1
42 t 61.6 C 31.8 F 20.6 G 19.7 S 17.0 L 6.1
43 t 51.9 C 37.2 S 18.6 G 16.1 F 15.7 L 6.4
44 t 57.9 C 34.5 G 21.9 S 17.3 F 16.6 L 4.7

A lengthy note on Offenbach's local administration:
Unlike FF's Kassel and Wiesbaden, where statistical (and, largely, colloquial) neighborhoods = Borough Councils (for want of a better word. Ortsbeiräte.) and semi-FF Frankfurt where most Borough Councils are made up of a small group of neighborhoods but everywhere in the city has one; in most municipalities within districts only the non-"core" areas get one, f.ex. in HC Hanau there's one each for Steinheim, Klein-Auheim, Mittelbuchen, and Groß-Auheim with Wolfgang together, but none for the core (including Kesselstadt, incorporated a century ago).
Arch-HC Darmstadt only has one for the area added in the 70s - ie Wixhausen. Arch-HC Offenbach (which had no territory added in the 70s) hasn't got any, hence why these are purely statistical entities (and maybe why there's less of an interest in providing exact results for them).

The numbering scheme seems to imply an old 4-way division (that first digit) but I've never found any evidence that that division was actually ever recognised. That division would be, though "1 City Proper north of the railway line", "2 same, south of...", "3 Bieber and estates by the forest edge", "4 northeastern suburbs".

11-25, 31 and 32 is the ancient municipal territory of Offenbach. 43, 26(!) and most of 41 is the historical territory of Bürgel but has been part of the city for a hundred years. 33 is the historical territory of Bieber, added in 1936. 42, 44 and a bit of 41 is the historic territory of Rumpenheim, added in 1942.

Only a few of these statistical names - Kaiserlei, Lauterborn, Bieberer Berg, and 31ff (perhaps exc Mühlheimer Straße... most of that's industrial and commercial anyways) - are widely recognized names (though you might have to point out to people that Bieber includes Waldhof and Rumpenheim includes Biebernsee - not that they'd think it doesn't, they'd just not be sure). The others are mostly named for schools, landmarks etc, and don't even ask me what "Lichtenplatte" is named for. A couple of them correlate well with actually well-recognized parts of town though: 11 is basically the Old Town, 13 is the North End, 15 is the West End, and 16 is sometimes known as the East End though that's a somewhat less well-established term. Elsewhere, neighborhood names really don't exist in Offenbach.

[minionofmidas]

Had a go at Darmstadt.

Now do the others.

[minionofmidas]

Offenbach by postal precincts (and including postal votes) (percentages based on reg.d voters)

01 t 42.8 S 24.2 C 24.1 G 22.6 L 11.1 F 10.7 (11, 12, 74% of 13)
02 t 53.8 C 28.2 G 22.1 S 20.6 F 16.1 L 9.8 (14, 81% of 15, 26% of 13)
03 t 47.1 C 28.1 S 23.1 G 23.0 F 12.7 L 9.7 (16, 21, 19% of 15)
04 t 52.4 C 35.4 S 22.4 G 15.5 F 15.1 L 7.5 (89% of 22)
05 t 49.2 C 30.4 S 23.8 G 20.7 F 10.8 L 8.7 (23, 25% of 24, 11% of 22)
06 t 49.9 C 32.7 S 23.6 G 18.6 F 11.3 L 8.8 (75% of 24, 59% of 25)
07 t 57.0 C 34.8 S 21.1 G 17.7 F 15.4 L 6.3 (26, 31, 41% of 25)
08 t 58.4 C 39.2 S 20.9 G 15.2 F 13.8 L 5.3 (32, 41% of 33)
09 t 60.2 C 41.2 S 18.4 F 16.2 G 14.0 L 5.7 (41, 42, 59% of 33, 19% of 43)
10 t 60.5 C 36.5 G 18.4 S 18.0 F 15.6 L 5.8 (44, 81% of 43)

[minionofmidas]

As we were speaking of the Engelsplatz (God, I got to see if I can find something online about it.)

the precinct it's in has got a weird result - second best Left result in the city, but only CDU-won precinct in the Riederwald (and yes, that includes the postal precinct)...

CDU 28.2 SPD 19.5 Left 18.7 Greens 17.6 FDP 11.5

The Left's best result is a surprise too. Although it seems created largely by a comedy turnout - in an already undersized and very homogeneous precinct: the tower block bit of the Frankfurter Berg.

SPD 27.3 CDU 26.7 Left 19.4 Greens 12.7 FDP 10.9
And no, the place doesn't really have a tradition of voting that far to the left of the city.

[Hash]

Somebody explain Darmstadt-Nord to me. Very high Greenie result, but also the best Linke result, a weak FDP/CDU.

[minionofmidas]

Somebody explain Darmstadt-Nord to me. Very high Greenie result, but also the best Linke result, a weak FDP/CDU.

Like Bornheim except with a locally-created weaker SPD?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hanau...

[minionofmidas]

Turnout and CDU maps and the ancient (pre annexation of Kesselstadt) city of Hanau depressingly correlated...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout and CDU maps and the ancient (pre annexation of Kesselstadt) city of Hanau depressingly correlated...

Yeah, I noticed that certain patterns did look a little stark...

[minionofmidas]

Turnout and CDU maps and the ancient (pre annexation of Kesselstadt) city of Hanau depressingly correlated...

Yeah, I noticed that certain patterns did look a little stark...

"Stark". That's a good word for what Hanau is like.

infratest dimap estimates of voter migrations (net).

SPD --> non-voting 203k
SPD --> Greens 121k
CDU --> FDP 88k
SPD --> CDU 35k
SPD --> FDP 29k
non-voting --> FDP 22k
Left --> non-voting 20k
other --> Greens 9k
non-voting --> other 8k
other --> FDP 7k
SPD --> Left 5k
CDU to Greens, Left, others, non-voting; SPD to Left, others, FDP to Left, Greens; Greens to Left, non-voters: negligible quantities (under 5k. Way within MoE.)

FR has another analysis by a less-known institute up that has somewhat more people going over from the SPD to the Right. (I know which one I prefer to believe, then but I'm posting this one as well for sake of balance)

SPD --> non-voting 155k
SPD --> Greens 119k
CDU --> FDP 77k
SPD --> FDP 50k
SPD --> CDU 49k
non-voting --> FDP 25k
SPD --> Left 17k
SPD --> other 14k
CDU --> Green 14k
Left --> non-voting 11k
CDU --> non-voting 7k
other --> non-voting 7k
Left --> Greens 6k

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout and CDU maps and the ancient (pre annexation of Kesselstadt) city of Hanau depressingly correlated...

Yeah, I noticed that certain patterns did look a little stark...

"Stark". That's a good word for what Hanau is like.

Details! Give details!

[minionofmidas]

Basically - and this is being partisan - the incorporated suburbs went into White Backlash denial, decided to feel persecuted and are using their political majority - not of population but of votes cast, thanks to starkly different citizenship as well as turnout rates* - to let Lamboy and the downtown rot. (And as usual, the buck continues to be passed further down; people from Tümpelgarten# insisting that they're NOT from Lamboy, and being slightly more German and probably voting slightly more than people from Lamboy proper... and of course insisting that urban regeneration money go to Tümpelgarten rather than Lamboy proper)

Yet Lamboy could be beautiful. Here's a great webpage I found that tries to make it look as if it already is (click on the dots).

*noncitizen percentage 2007:
SE 36, Innenstadt, Lamboy 30, Groß-Auheim 19 (apparently they included Wolfgang again. Some tables they do, some they don't... weird), Kesselstadt 18, NW 13, Steinheim 12, Klein-Auheim 10, Mittelbuchen 6

#including a friend of mine. While a very good friend of mine comes from the Port slum (in the South East). Tümpelgarten's most famous son is, of course, Rudi Völler.

[minionofmidas]

A note on postal voting, at least in Frankfurt: Total numbers down. Right-wing bias up. Confirms what I already know - lots and lots of people on the left knew they'd vote again, but not who for until the last moment. Of course, some who "knew" that eventually didn't vote, as usual, but nvm that - there were far fewer of those than there might have been. In other words, Roland Koch probably kept the turnout semi-decent by sheer force of unpopularity.

Postal votes, Gallus:
CDU 214, FDP 106, Greens 105, SPD 100, Left 84, other 27. Cough.

[Hash]

Nothing for Kassel yet?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wiesbaden;