Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What a load of bullshit.  Everything about that poll is way off.

[Rowan]

SUSA's own poll from a month ago puts his approval rating at 59/36.

Or we could use their poll from this month that is 44/49.

Could it be because they used the same sample?

Nope, 600 adults.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f87eb760-0a7d-4703-81ea-6bb514ad396f

[War on Want]

SUSA's own poll from a month ago puts his approval rating at 59/36.

Or we could use their poll from this month that is 44/49.

I think Rassy came out with a poll not too long ago showing Obama having positive approval ratings by 4 or 5 points.

[Dan the Roman]

While this poll has problems, I would remind people to keep in mind the 1997 and 1993 results where races which had been too close to call early in the year(and in 1997 through September) ended up being double digit landslides.

I have a friend who has been involved in Democratic politics for some time in Northern Virginia. Worked for Kaine, voted for Obama and Warner, against the Gay Marriage Amendment, and a straight democratic ticket in 2005. He is wavering and strongly considering McDonnell. While this is circumstantial, if someone like that is wavering, Deeds has a real problem not just with independents, but with what would have been Mcauliffe or Moran's base.

This is not looking good for the Democrats and I can see an 8+ McDonnell win easily, something like 52-44.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have a friend who has been involved in Democratic politics for some time in Northern Virginia. Worked for Kaine, voted for Obama and Warner, against the Gay Marriage Amendment, and a straight democratic ticket in 2005. He is wavering and strongly considering McDonnell.

I really can not comprehend why someone like that would vote for MCDONNELL.

[Badger]

I have a friend who has been involved in Democratic politics for some time in Northern Virginia. Worked for Kaine, voted for Obama and Warner, against the Gay Marriage Amendment, and a straight democratic ticket in 2005. He is wavering and strongly considering McDonnell.

I really can not comprehend why someone like that would vote for MCDONNELL.

Agreed. I have a hard time believing the vast majority of such base voters won't come home in November.

That said, McDonnell clearly has an advantage at this point and Deeds post-primary momentum has obviously stalled.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What a load of bullshit.  Everything about that poll is way off.

Initially I would have agreed but when you consider that minority/young voters will not be as enthused as they were in 2008, also even when reweighted this poll still gives McDonnell the edge. My bet is McDonnell by 5-8 points.

[Purple State]

I have a friend who has been involved in Democratic politics for some time in Northern Virginia. Worked for Kaine, voted for Obama and Warner, against the Gay Marriage Amendment, and a straight democratic ticket in 2005. He is wavering and strongly considering McDonnell.

I really can not comprehend why someone like that would vote for MCDONNELL.

Agreed. I have a hard time believing the vast majority of such base voters won't come home in November.

That said, McDonnell clearly has an advantage at this point and Deeds post-primary momentum has obviously stalled.

I feel like those sorts of Dems are the same kind that claimed they would support McCain over Obama because they preferred Hillary. It's good talk, but they will vote for the Democratic candidate at the end of the day.

[Rowan]

Please apologize to SurveyUSA now:

"Last week I was skeptical of SurveyUSA's poll showing an electorate that voted for John McCain 52-43...but we actually found it at a 52-41 McCain advantage."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/08/deeds-problem.html

[Rowan]

PPP

McDonnell 51%
Deeds 37%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_80492583.pdf

Pretty quiet from all the Dems that were bashing the SUSA poll.

[JerryBrown2010]

PPP

McDonnell 51%
Deeds 37%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_80492583.pdf

Pretty quiet from all the Dems that were bashing the SUSA poll.

LOL true.

[Ronnie]

Woo!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I can't open the PPP file; what are the regional and party breakdowns?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can't open the PPP file; what are the regional and party breakdowns?

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If other, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 32%
Republican...................................................... 35%
Other............................................................... 33%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If you are African-
American, press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 79%
African American ............................................ 16%
Other............................................................... 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 9%
30 to 45........................................................... 21%
46 to 65........................................................... 49%
Older than 65.................................................. 21%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Party ID seems off, and I can't comment on race/age.  How did each group vote?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can't open the PPP file; what are the regional and party breakdowns?

This is regional, but I hope you know the regions by area code.
Q14
276.................................................................. 8%
434.................................................................. 10%
540.................................................................. 25%
703.................................................................. 20%
757.................................................................. 17%
804.................................................................. 20%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Party ID seems off, and I can't comment on race/age.  How did each group vote?

Republicans vote 94-4 for McDonnell
Democrats voted 80-2 for Deeds
Indies voted 52-33 for McDonnell

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its very similar to the SurveyUSA poll. If you read the other PPP link they say that there is an 18 point motivation gap in McDonnell's favor and so the poll consists of 52% McCain voters and 41% Obama voters. Similar to the gap found by SurveyUSA.

Sorry Ben, looks like your fellow Dems aren't as enthused about Deeds as you are.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I can't open the PPP file; what are the regional and party breakdowns?

This is regional, but I hope you know the regions by area code.
Q14
276.................................................................. 8%
434.................................................................. 10%
540.................................................................. 25%
703.................................................................. 20%
757.................................................................. 17%
804.................................................................. 20%

I think 703 is underrepresented, and 740 is overrepresented.  How did they vote?

Republicans vote 94-4 for McDonnell
Democrats voted 80-2 for Deeds
Indies voted 52-33 for McDonnell

Indies won't stay +19 for McDonnell for long.

The Democrats will get enthused, once they get focused.

[Rowan]

There's only 3 months left. They better get focused quick then.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can't open the PPP file; what are the regional and party breakdowns?

This is regional, but I hope you know the regions by area code.
Q14
276.................................................................. 8%
434.................................................................. 10%
540.................................................................. 25%
703.................................................................. 20%
757.................................................................. 17%
804.................................................................. 20%

I think 703 is underrepresented, and 740 is overrepresented.  How did they vote?

Republicans vote 94-4 for McDonnell
Democrats voted 80-2 for Deeds
Indies voted 52-33 for McDonnell

Indies won't stay +19 for McDonnell for long.

The Democrats will get enthused, once they get focused.

703 went 51-44 for Deeds. If you are reffering to 540 since there isn't a 740, it went 66-33 for McDonnell.

Even if Deeds gets 48% of Indies, as along as McDonnell keeps his 52% among them the Undecided Indies are a non factor considering McDonnell leads statewide with over 50%. The same goes for the Dems. The only thing that can turn this towards Deeds to get more Dems out then are in this poll.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The same goes for the Dems. The only thing that can turn this towards Deeds to get more Dems out then are in this poll.

Which will likely happen.  I don't see how the GOP gets 3% more than the Democrats, especially given the GOTV machine Obama, Warner, and Kaine have.

[Rowan]

Republicans did the same denial of reality in 2008.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Republicans did the same denial of reality in 2008.

SHUT UP!  I'M NOT LISTENING!  LALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALA

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republicans did the same denial of reality in 2008.

2006 for sure. I remember saying there was no way the Republicans would lose the Senate cause the GOP GOTV would save VA and MO for us in the end. Remember how that turned out. I wonder how Allen is enjoying his second term as Senator. .