Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Ronnie]

Oh woops, I looked at the race between Jim Webb and George Allen.

[aspiderleftalone]

If this has already been brought up I apologize I'm still a n00b.

One thing I wish would be discussed more in the media is the restoration of rights issue.  For those who don't know, Virginia and Kentucky are the only states where felons are not immediately re-issued their rights (such as voting and holding office) after their debt to society has been paid.  In VA they have to go through a lengthy restoration process that ends with approval or disapproval by the governor.  So if a governor just doesn't want felons to vote, well then, they won't for the entirety of his term.

Deeds would like to continue Kaine's general loosening of the rules and approve anyone he can whereas McDonnell will approve no one.  This issue comes up for a vote each year and is party-line shot down.

[Thomas216]

PPP:

McDonnell: 49%
Deeds: 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_707.pdf

Don't you find the partisan breakdown a bit off?
I'm content with the poll results but a 34D-33R-33I breakdown looks off, in November 2 PPP had a poll showing Obama with a 6 pts lead with a 40D-35R-25I breakdown so perhaps we should take that into consideration.
Also, I'm rather surprised to see McDonnell ahead amongst youngsters (under 30) by 2 pts and amongst Hispanics by 11 (though I understand Deeds wasn't very popular with them to begin with).

[minionofmidas]

If this has already been brought up I apologize I'm still a n00b.

One thing I wish would be discussed more in the media is the restoration of rights issue.  For those who don't know, Virginia and Kentucky are the only states where felons are not immediately re-issued their rights (such as voting and holding office) after their debt to society has been paid.  In VA they have to go through a lengthy restoration process that ends with approval or disapproval by the governor.  So if a governor just doesn't want felons to vote, well then, they won't for the entirety of his term.

Deeds would like to continue Kaine's general loosening of the rules and approve anyone he can whereas McDonnell will approve no one.  This issue comes up for a vote each year and is party-line shot down.

Ugh. That'd disgusting.

Well, at least you're down to two states now... was something like a dozen ten years ago IIRC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If this has already been brought up I apologize I'm still a n00b.

One thing I wish would be discussed more in the media is the restoration of rights issue.  For those who don't know, Virginia and Kentucky are the only states where felons are not immediately re-issued their rights (such as voting and holding office) after their debt to society has been paid.  In VA they have to go through a lengthy restoration process that ends with approval or disapproval by the governor.  So if a governor just doesn't want felons to vote, well then, they won't for the entirety of his term.

Deeds would like to continue Kaine's general loosening of the rules and approve anyone he can whereas McDonnell will approve no one.  This issue comes up for a vote each year and is party-line shot down.

Ugh. That'd disgusting.

Well, at least you're down to two states now... was something like a dozen ten years ago IIRC.

Funny how some people think it's more common. I found out a few days ago my mom though it was like that in every state like it was federal law, then I pointed out that voting is handled completely by states.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Fundraising reports for the post-primary portion of the second quarter (May 28 - June 30) are due Wednesday. Deeds has reported raising $3.4 million since the pre-primary report, undoubtedly helped by $400k $500k from the DGA and $500k from the AFSCME (who had given over $600k to McAuliffe in the primary - no hard feelings there, I guess). He has $2.7 million on hand.

[Rowan]

Where do these unions get so much money from to donate to candidates?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Couldn't tell you -- VPAP's website won't load their "money in" page.

[Meeker]

The joy of union dues.

[Lunar]

Deeds 20 year old son was arrested for alcohol too

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I won't be too concerned if Deeds trails in the money right now.  He'll pick up steam in September, once people remember there's a cammpaign going on.

[Lunar]

he raised like $4.3 million in a month, I'm pretty sure he's going to be the one leading in the fundraising right now since Bob McDonnell has been known as the eventual GOP nominee for some time

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I've been having trouble finding information about this race since the democratic primary.  Is it still a tossup or has one of the candidates started to pull ahead (and if so which one)?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I've been having trouble finding information about this race since the democratic primary.  Is it still a tossup or has one of the candidates started to pull ahead (and if so which one)?

The race is still within the margin of error, and will stay like this until the election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Deeds 20 year old son was arrested for alcohol too

Oh wow that's devastating. His son did something all 20-year olds do!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bob McDonnell only raised $1.8 million, but has $5 million on hand.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here are the totals for the May 28 - June 30 period:

Creigh Deeds - $521k starting balance, $3.4m raised, $1.2m spent, $2.7m on hand
Bob McDonnell - $4.9m starting balance, $1.8m raised, $1.8m spent, $4.9m on hand

Lt. Governor:

Bill Bolling - $928k starting balance, $366k raised, $177k spent, $1.1m on hand
Jody Wagner - $273k starting balance, $231k raised, $317k spent, $188k on hand

Attorney General:

Ken Cuccinelli - $136k starting balance, $292k raised, $95k spent, $333k on hand
Steve Shannon - $1.0m starting balance, $284k raised, $39k spent, $1.25m on hand

Here's hoping Shannon stops running such a crappy campaign and actually tries to win this thing. He's got the money.

[Dan the Roman]

Shannon also has a new campaign manager, Mike Henry.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Not bad numbers for Deeds.  He needs to raise more, though.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In the end, the governor numbers don't really matter, since the parties can dump unlimited amounts of money into the race. That won't happen as much with the LG and AG races, where Wagner and Shannon will be pretty much left on their own. There might be some last-minute buys if they sense an opening in either race, but that's about it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How have Wagner and Shannon been doing in their respective races?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

How have Wagner and Shannon been doing in their respective races?

Shannon's campaign has sucked so far. He got a new campaign manager, so hopefully he'll start doing better.

Wagner is a little odder. She has a huge cash deficit compared to Bolling, but the one poll that has been conducted showed Bolling ahead only 46-40, basically a "generic R vs D" response, so he's made zero impact as LG. Not surprising, really, considering how useless the office is.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't see Wagner making much headway; this race strikes me as a generic race, and Bolling has the advantage if being the incumbent, and having a structure in place.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I updated my House of Delegates targets, see it here at SSP:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/5292/virginia-house-of-delegates-targets-postprimarysecond-quarter-fundraising-update

[MatthewZD]

Coming out of lurker mode to pose a question --

What impact, if any, will the recent interstate rest area closures have on the race?

Like the DMV hour reduction, it's not a popular decision.  Unlike the DMV case, it may not directly impact voters that much.  Out of state travellers probably use the rest areas more than Virginians.

I don't know if it will impact voter decisions.  If Kaine could run for and was running for re-election, it might.  Deeds and McDonnell have both said they will reopen the rest areas so it may be a wash in that regard.  I really don't see most voters blaming Deeds for Kaine's decision.

If anything, it will only keep transportation and budgetary woes in the forefront of the campaign.