Virginia 2009 Megathread

[The Mikado]

Wow.  This is pretty fantastic, to say the least.  I don't see how Deeds loses at this point.

Boast not thyself of to morrow; for thou knowest not what a day may bring forth.

-Proverbs 27:1

[Lunar]

Wow.  This is pretty fantastic, to say the least.  I don't see how Deeds loses at this point.

Boast not thyself of to morrow; for thou knowest not what a day may bring forth.

-Proverbs 27:1

"And God said, "Behold, I have given you every plant yielding seed which is upon the face of all the earth, and every tree with seed in its fruit; you shall have them for food."
—Genesis 1:29

[Eraserhead]

This is good. It'll prepare Ben for the victory ahead of time. On the other hand, if Deeds gets upset, he's probably going to be really annoying. So we can all cheer Deeds on now, basically.

[Lunar]

all tree campaigns are hella focusing on black churches right now, scroll down this list of stories, at least half of them are about this:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/

i'm not joking, look at this:



yes, that's correct

[Eraserhead]

I'd be interesting if Deeds won while coming in third among blacks. I guess we won't really know for sure anyway though.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Lt. Governor polling is kind of funny:

Jody Wagner - 41
Mike Signer - 12
Jon Bowerbank - 6

Bowerbank still gets 6 percent despite being out of the race for nearly a month.

[Tender Branson]

Latest SurveyUSA poll:

Deeds: 42%
McAuliffe: 30%
Moran: 21%



McDonnell: 47%
Deeds: 43%

McDonnell: 48%
McAuliffe: 41%

McDonnell: 49%
Moran: 38%

Filtering: 2,000 Virginia adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 06/05/07 through 06/07/09. Of them, 1,685 were registered to vote. Of them, 535 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/09/09 Democratic Primary. The primary is "open." In SurveyUSA's final turnout model, 62% of primary voters are registered Democrats, 29% are Independent, 8% are Republican. All VA registered voters were asked the November general-election hypothetical match-ups.

Effect of weighting on these results: SurveyUSA's unweighted data for this final poll shows Deeds at 44%, McAuliffe at 28%, Moran at 20%. The customary weighing adjustment that SurveyUSA makes to all research, to ensure that data reflect the geography being surveyed, took away 2 points from Deeds, added 2 points to McAuliffe, and added 1 point to Moran. All 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls were conducted identically.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ed18269c-1bcf-4742-80c7-be56a1edd29d

[Frodo]

Glad to see Deeds is surging right when it counts most...

[Badger]

North Virginia loves their Washington Post?

Uneducated half-ass guess: The WaPo endorsement matters to a sizable percentage of the type of NOVA Democrats who actually vote in a 5-10% turnout primary.

[Eraserhead]

Okay, my Moran in second prediction is looking pretty bad now... guess I'll keep it anyway though.

[Lunar]

Glad to see Deeds is surging right when it counts most...

A well-run campaign with a likable candidate is more important than ideology, geography, or money. 

And, of course, while the "electability" argument may not work openly, it does work in the backroom to earn various kinds of support.


I didn't expect Deeds to be surging this much.  His latest advertising blitz must be doing its job.

[Lunar]

http://thinkdodone.typepad.com/pro-gun%20Brian%20Moran%20recorded%20call.wav

Now a third party group supporting Moran is accusing Deeds of being the anti-gun candidate?

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://thinkdodone.typepad.com/pro-gun%20Brian%20Moran%20recorded%20call.wav

Now a third party group supporting Moran is accusing Deeds of being the anti-gun candidate?

Has this guy, Moran, said anything positive about his candidacy?
All I hear is him attacking either McAuliffe or Deeds.

[Lunar]

I think there's something positive in there about Moran supporting gun-rights in school parking lots.  Not sure, the player wasn't working for me.


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/06/predictions_of_low_turnout_con.html

Fairfax County Elections Registrar Rokey W. Suleman II is officially predicting it'll be low in his neck of the woods. Suleman said that as of Saturday night, voters had mailed 1,679 absentee ballots, of which, 759 had been returned to the office. An additional 754 Fairfax residents had voted early in person as of Saturday night, an option available since May 18.

"That's a very very low number," he said.

He said Fairfax election officials are predicting turnout between 5 and 7 percent, figures they have come to by looking at ballots already cast but also through subjective measures, like how many phone calls the office has been receiving.

He said there has been something of an uptick in interest in the last few days--188 early voters came out on Friday and Saturday alone. But he said at this point, he wouldn't be surprised to see turnout dip even lower than 5 percent.

[Lunar]

here are the only three ads I could find on Moran's youtube channel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39uKekhDE24
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt_W2-8Pem4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfBemdcsuZo


Even the "I approve of this message" is done horribly

[Eraserhead]

I wouldn't be completely shocked if Deeds broke 50% if turnout is as low as many think it will be.

[Rowan]

PPP is projecting 300,000 turnout(which I highly doubt), if it's less than 200,000 Deeds wins by 20 points at least.

[Landslide Lyndon]

here are the only three ads I could find on Moran's youtube channel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39uKekhDE24
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt_W2-8Pem4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfBemdcsuZo


Even the "I approve of this message" is done horribly

WTF?
Was Moran so busy that he couldn't spare two minutes entering a studio and recording his approval? That sounds like he did it through a cell phone. Pathetic!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I wouldn't be completely shocked if Deeds broke 50% if turnout is as low as many think it will be.

I would.  I don't see him breaking 40%, but maybe I'm just being pessimistic.  I do think, though, that turnout will not surpass 200,000; it was around 160,000 in both 2001 and 2005.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

here are the only three ads I could find on Moran's youtube channel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39uKekhDE24
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt_W2-8Pem4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfBemdcsuZo


Even the "I approve of this message" is done horribly

WTF?
Was Moran so busy that he couldn't spare two minutes entering a studio and recording his approval? That sounds like he did it through a cell phone. Pathetic!

And Gubernatorial ads aren't even required to have it. WTF?

[Lunar]

Yeah I just checked a Deeds ad and it doesn't have that "I approve" thing at all.

Especially on an attack ad he shouldn't include his name and face.

[Lunar]

The only consistent thing I get from Moran's ads is that he's going to "beat McDonnell like a drum."  Deed's TV buys have been positive, soft, authoritative-yet-feminine, and repeat constant themes like "most prepared" "education" and make Deeds out to be someone fairly likable:
http://www.deedsforvirginia.com/campaignvideo

I wouldn't be surprised if some significant slice of Deed's surge is due to women.

[Eraserhead]

The polling has shown that Moran is doing far better among men than women.

[HappyWarrior]

Are any of the networks showing the results atm?

[Lunar]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/08/mcauliffe_goes_after_deeds.html