2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

Double digits among RV's? Wow, joke poll.

[Verily]

Double digits among RV's? Wow, joke poll.

I don't see why. We know that there are a lot of voters simply not tuned in. The 2008-vote breakdowns for most of the LV polls have had Obama in the lead by less than 5%. Clearly, there are a lot of 2008 voters who either don't know an election is on or plan to stay home, and these voters are disproportionately Democrats. This should be no surprise; we are all well-aware that Republicans have an institutional advantage in off-year elections as a result of differential turnout.

The LV results of the poll are quite clearly not a joke. They are within the margin of error of the results of every other poll taken in the past week or two. If we saw RV polling by some of those companies, they may very well have shown substantial Corzine majorities among RVs.

Anyway, that shows why the race is far from over. Christie has the advantage among undecideds, and arguably among Daggett supporters, but Corzine has the advantage among those who have yet to make it through the LV screen but may still be convinced to vote (either because they don't know there's an election on or because they're being lazy). LV numbers will rise somewhat as election day approaches, boosting Corzine maybe 1-3 points, but Christie probably has the same cushion among undecideds and Daggett switchers. So, if nothing changes, the election is going down to the wire.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think SV and Rasmussen overly samples likely voters. From that standpoint Survey USA and NYTimes are on par with polling of this race.

We are simply past the peak of Corzine's negatives and getting on with the real issues of this race.

I think Survey USA and NYTimes will end up having the same ending poll of this race and meet at the same level.

[fezzyfestoon]

Well, I'm definitely still a Republican.  I just filled out my ballot and voted straight Republican for the first time ever.  It feels weird.  I also voted heavily Italian.  Biondi, Ciattarelli, Scaglione, and Gaziano all got my vote.  There are a lot of women on the ballot, too.  And a stupid public question I voted no for.  So put one in the Christie column!

[Sam Spade]

This poll has some 'interesting' internals.

Anyway, another one for the average...

[Lunar]

hard to deny that Corzine is better at campaigning than governing.  I have to give my respect to his campaign managers regardless of the actual election results.

Conversely, New Jersey should hope that Christie is better at governing than he is at campaigning.

[YankeeFan007]

Its not that Corzine is a better campaigner, he just has a crapload more money.  Chrisitie just better hope no one watches the debate cause he's a pretty pathetic debater.  I have to see I thought he would be better being an attorney and all, but just sucks, especially when both Daggett and Corzine deliver blows to the body. 

[Lunar]

It's more than just money, it's the gutsy personal negative attacks than many campaigns shy away from, it's making the right moves at the right times.  Corzine is comfortable with playing hardball and seems to be rather good at it. 

[Eraserhead]

There is some buzz about Bloomberg endorsing Daggett now. That'd be pretty bad news for Christie, obviously.

[Rowan]

It's more than just money, it's the gutsy personal negative attacks than many campaigns shy away from, it's making the right moves at the right times.  Corzine is comfortable with playing hardball and seems to be rather good at it. 

Considering the Obama team is screening every ad before it goes on the air, I think more credit should be given to Obama.

[Holmes]

There is some buzz about Bloomberg endorsing Daggett now. That'd be pretty bad news for Christie, obviously.

Where are you hearing this?

[YankeeFan007]

There is some buzz about Bloomberg endorsing Daggett now. That'd be pretty bad news for Christie, obviously.

Yeah because everyone who isn't a partisan hack has realized that Christie is complete idiot and Corzine hasn't been a good Governor.  The only sensible choice is Daggett.

[Rowan]

Actually Bloomberg could be endorsing anyone:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1009/A_Bloomberg_endorsement_in_NJ.html?showall

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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Anyway, with regard to some earlier comments, the RV screen is just mental masturbation.  Given the Corzine campaign strategy, we're not looking at a high-turnout election where voters are motivated to show.  We're talking about a disappointing choice forced by his own constant stream of negative ads that, if anything, will only serve to depress voter turnout even further.

This isn't Yes We Can 2.0.  This is a brutal slugfest powered by an enormous personal bankroll.

There is some buzz about Bloomberg endorsing Daggett now. That'd be pretty bad news for Christie, obviously.

Yeah because everyone who isn't a partisan hack has realized that Christie is complete idiot and Corzine hasn't been a good Governor.  The only sensible choice is Daggett.

And everyone knows that Daggett can't and won't win, so you're back at the beginning.

(By the way, just because Christie hasn't put out a comprehensive plan pre-election doesn't mean he's a complete idiot.)

[DownWithTheLeft]

Going to the debate tonight, should be great!  (No I don't go to WPUNJ I have a friend who does )

[Meeker]

Just to contradict Mr. Moderate for the sake of argument: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/will-daggett-hold-his-support.html

[Holmes]

I guess Christie's weight comment will dominate the news for a day.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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[Lunar]

calling out Corzine is NOT the right strategy here...I don't know what the frick his strategy is here...Corzine made an under-the-belt blow with the "throwing his weight around" ad....and Christie's strategy is to turn this election into petty semantics and to defend himself?  S-T-U-P-I-D

man, campaign consultants are such hacks, they tell you to do whatever you are doing until you're plummeting, and then tell you to do the opposite after that


the right strategy for Christie here would be to pivot to a "real" [lol] news story that's inherently critical of Corzine...not to play this schoolyard girl pansy defense crap.

[Eraserhead]

He's slightly overweight?

[Lunar]

He's slightly overweight?

Exactly.  Why is he even engaging this semantics debate, there's no way for Christie to belittle the Corzine campaign when they're already acting like children [and rightly so, strategy-wise].

[Holmes]

He's trying to connect with voters who were bullied about their weight or have had/having difficulties with their weight. I wouldn't say it's stupid, or smart, much like Corzine's weight attacks.

[East Coast Republican]

Christie's defense was anything but S-T-U-P-I-D Lunar.  It was S-M-A-R-T.  I know it is because it seems to have really P-I-S-S-E-D Y-O-U O-F-F.

Christie might have been wrong to not significantly hammer hard on anything policy wise but his weight statement was anything but stupid and more than a pansy schoolgirl moment.  He made people laugh when he said he was slightly overweight (hey Eraserhead, it's called sarcasm).  Whether you want to admit it or not, the majority of people in the country have struggled with their weight at one time or another or are still fat and it is thrown around as a random insult.  It was a rare moment where a candidate used the sympathy card to full advantage...which you wouldn't understand but hey, that's why you don't run campaigns

But relax Lunar.  The Yankees were playing game 1 last night of the ALCS and I doubt many people are even going to read about this debate because ya know, in the normal world where people don't get on internet forums with avatars of their state and write thousands of posts, people are doing things like work and taking care of their kids or watching the Yankees.

[Lunar]

It, uh, hasn't pissed me off, and if it was smart, he wouldn't be tanking in the polls right now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

When you're an independent candidate, you're the lonliest person in the world:

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/34192/no-winner-gubernatorial-debate-daggett-was-big-loser