2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Wait a minute.  It just came to my attention that Mike DuHaime is advising Christie.  DuHaime was Giuliani's campaign manager in the epic disaster that was Giuliani's 2008 presidential run.  This gives me another opportunity to laugh at DuHaime's hilarious boasts from 2007:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/11/12/462680.aspx

You must be logged in to read this quote.

DuHaime is the area's premier GOP campaign consultant with extensive links to New Jersey. He managed Bob Franks' 2000 Senatorial campaign and flawlessly executed the Bill Baroni for State Assembly campaign in 2003.

While Daggett is registering 14% in the latest Quinnipiac poll, only 39% of those who chose Daggett in the survey said their mind is made up.  Typically, what happens at the end of a campaign is people choose not to throw away their vote on a third party candidate who has no chance of winning.  Of the people who said they could change their mind, Christie has the advantage.  The other thing hurting Daggett is his name is hard to find on the ballot.  How many people will go through the trouble of actually looking for it just to make a statement?  I think in the end, Daggett's vote share is 5-8%.

...

I think that in the next week or so, Christie will start to edge ahead again.  The last week of the campaign, I think Christie will have around a 5 point lead again.  We'll see if I'm right.

Always glad to hear new insight on the race!  Welcome.

I think you're dead on about Daggett's final share of the vote—probably close to 8 percent. The remaining independents will probably pick up another 5 points between them.

Campaigns are incredibly fluid, and Christie has been suffering from a few consecutive bad-to-neutral weeks of press.  This may be his first "good" week in a month: Corzine has been thrown on the defensive thanks to the recently leaked memo that state departments should be "creative" with respect to job reports. It also doesn't help that the state's unemployment ticked up again, flirting with that ugly 10% milestone.

I doubt Christie will open a significant lead back up in the polls, but I think it all depends on what dominates the news headlines these next few weeks.  The fact that Jon Corzine is about to get thumped by editorial boards around the state in the endorsement game probably won't help matters.

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new NYT poll out later today.

[East Coast Republican]

NYTimes?!

Corzine by 5 or more.  If they show Christie leading Ill be surprised.

Rasmussen showed 45-41 Christie today but you didn't mention that Tender.  I wonder why hmmm.

[Rowan]

Biden, Clinton, and Obama will all be in NJ in the next 2 weeks for Corzine.

[Holmes]

NYTimes?!

Corzine by 5 or more.  If they show Christie leading Ill be surprised.

Rasmussen showed 45-41 Christie today but you didn't mention that Tender.  I wonder why hmmm.

Because Tender Branson doesn't want you to know that Christie will win by 30 points.

[Sam Spade]

I wonder who the NYT will use as their pollster for this one.

[Rowan]

I wonder who the NYT will use as their pollster for this one.

Well whoever it was decided they should still be using Registered Voters less than 3 weeks from election day.

[Rowan]

SUSA:

Christie 40%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 18%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5dfe443b-b0b3-4162-8ce1-408d9f9007f3

[Sbane]

SUSA:

Christie 40%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 18%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5dfe443b-b0b3-4162-8ce1-408d9f9007f3

Daggett at 18% looks unrealistic. I wonder which way his soft support will flow.

[Sam Spade]

Biden, Clinton, and Obama will all be in NJ in the next 2 weeks for Corzine.

The attention focused on this race and the non-attention focused on Virginia says quite a lot.  Obviously.

Really doubt Daggett gets anywhere near 18%, btw.

[Aizen]

Christie has been quite busy as of late. I guess you could say he has a lot on his plate.

[Eraserhead]

Christie has been quite busy as of late. I guess you could say he has a lot on his plate.

I love Aizen's hard-hitting commentary.

[East Coast Republican]

NYTimes is using RV?

Well Corzine by 2 or 3 is definitely wrong then.

Corzine up by 5-8! 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Supposedly, Corzine's team is already creating the ad that announces his endorsement by the New York Times.

Of course, the NYT hasn't endorsed yet.  Technicalities.

[East Coast Republican]

Where'd you hear that?

[Rowan]

Looks like the NYT lied. Their poll is nowhere to be found.

[East Coast Republican]

You already said that on the HHReport

Lol I thought hmmm that could be the same guy but nah what are the odds? 

[Vepres]

I'll just throw my 2 cents in here:

Corzine appears to be surging. If one looks at pollster.com, you can see a clear dive in support for Christie and a slight uptick for Corzine. Now, if this continues, Corzine will pull an upset victory with a victory margin of 3 to 5 points. However, Daggett, the wild card in this race, may decide who wins. If he continues to surge through election day, Corzine will win, if he begins to stagnate and drop, Christie wins.

Now, I am by no means an expert on New Jersey politics, but I would think that Daggett's support comes from the New York suburbs, which in an election like this, hurts the Republican. However, as election day nears, voters will look a Corzine and say, "do we really want him to run the state another four years?" This will cause Daggett to under perform on election day, I suspect he'll only get 5-7% max. These voters will come from the Philadelphia and NY suburbs, particularly from the former.

They will be white, non-union, middle-class workers, who would be dissatisfied with Corzine enough to vote for Christie, even if they are Democrats.

I say Christie wins by 3-5%, most of which comes from Daggett supports voting against Corzine. I suspect Christie will have a strong performance in the southern portion of the state.

Just my 2 cents.

[tmthforu94]

This race is sickening. Corzine has been a terrible governor. He is making personal attacks on his opponents. And yet, he might actually win this race. As much as I like Christie, I almost want Corzine to win. New Jersey doesn't deserve Chris Christie. With polls showing that this race is actually close, I'm starting to think New Jersey needs four more years of ridiculous leadership just to wisen up.

[tmthforu94]

You beat me by a second, Vepres!

[Vepres]

You beat me by a second, Vepres!

The universe is on my side!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This race is sickening. Corzine has been a terrible governor. He is making personal attacks on his opponents. And yet, he might actually win this race. As much as I like Christie, I almost want Corzine to win. New Jersey doesn't deserve Chris Christie. With polls showing that this race is actually close, I'm starting to think New Jersey needs four more years of ridiculous leadership just to wisen up.

'

If they haven't learned by now they never will.

[Tender Branson]

NYTimes?!

Corzine by 5 or more.  If they show Christie leading Ill be surprised.

Rasmussen showed 45-41 Christie today but you didn't mention that Tender.  I wonder why hmmm.

Because I was working.

Anyway, the NYT poll is out and they have 4 different questions:

867 RV: 40-30-13 Corzine

Without leaners (475 LV): 40-37-14 Corzine

With leaners (475 LV): 40-39-14 Corzine

Only Corzine vs. Christie (Daggett incl. voluntarily): 46-43-3 Corzine

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/nyregion/16jersey.html

[East Coast Republican]

Poll is garbage for obvious reasons that I'm not going into.

And NO, it's not garbage because Corzine is leading by 1% so nice try to future posters trying to play gotcha with me.   Christie with a -18 favorability?  Registered Voters?  I could go on and on but why bother?  Corzine's leading and we all know this poll is great and East Coast Republican is just annoyed because Corzine leads by 1%.

Yup that's all wrap it up people nothing to see here.

[muon2]

This race is sickening. Corzine has been a terrible governor. He is making personal attacks on his opponents. And yet, he might actually win this race. As much as I like Christie, I almost want Corzine to win. New Jersey doesn't deserve Chris Christie. With polls showing that this race is actually close, I'm starting to think New Jersey needs four more years of ridiculous leadership just to wisen up.

I am fascinated by this analysis. If I covered up the names and the dates this post could have been made in IL four years ago. There was an incumbent that lacked the trust to run the state. He used personal attacks to drive up the negatives on his opponent. In the end there was a surge for the Green candidate who got 10% out of disgust for the whole race.

In the end, the incumbent Blagojevich won with less 50%. Let's hope history does not repeat too closely since I don't wish an arrested governor and impeachment on any state.