2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Meeker]

8% undecided is a little high for this late in the game.

[Eraserhead]

It'll be interesting to see if Corzine keeps moving or if they'll stay put in a virtual dead heat. I guess Christie could also resurge but that seems like the least likely possibility to me.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

8% undecided is a little high for this late in the game.

And 13% is unrealistically high for Daggett, but you take what you can get out of modern polling.

Here's what I found out about those undecided voters, take from this what you will:

• They are more likely to be female by a 5:3 ratio. Corzine leads by 5 among women.
• Undecideds are disproportionately more likely to be conservative or moderate than liberal, by a 3:3:1 ratio. Moderates prefer both candidates about equally; conservatives favor Christie by better than 5:1.
• Slightly more Democrats are undecided than Republicans, by 4:3.
• More Indies are undecided, though, than Democrats, by about 11:8.  Independent voters still favor Christie by double-digit margins.

My interpretation of that is that Corzine definitely wants to be leading in the polls before election day, since undecideds cannot be expected to swing for him.

[© tweed]

NJ.GOV2009.DEM 60.4

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

NJ.GOV2009.DEM 60.4

Theoretically, Christie should still be favored, but I wouldn't risk any kind of money on it at this point.

[© tweed]

NJ.GOV2009.DEM 60.4

Theoretically, Christie should still be favored, but I wouldn't risk any kind of money on it at this point.

yeah, gun to my head I go with Christie

[Eraserhead]

NJ.GOV2009.DEM 60.4

Theoretically, Christie should still be favored, but I wouldn't risk any kind of money on it at this point.

yeah, gun to my head I go with Christie

Why?

[Meeker]

NJ.GOV2009.DEM 60.4

Theoretically, Christie should still be favored, but I wouldn't risk any kind of money on it at this point.

yeah, gun to my head I go with Christie

Why?

I think he was referring to electoral prediction, not preferred candidate.

[Eraserhead]

NJ.GOV2009.DEM 60.4

Theoretically, Christie should still be favored, but I wouldn't risk any kind of money on it at this point.

yeah, gun to my head I go with Christie

Why?

I think he was referring to electoral prediction, not preferred candidate.

Oh, I know that. I was just curious as to why he thinks Christie is still more likely to win.

[Meeker]

NJ.GOV2009.DEM 60.4

Theoretically, Christie should still be favored, but I wouldn't risk any kind of money on it at this point.

yeah, gun to my head I go with Christie

Why?

I think he was referring to electoral prediction, not preferred candidate.

Oh, I know that. I was just curious as to why he thinks Christie is still more likely to win.

I'd agree with that. Corzine has only barely lead in a few polls and I think his voters are less likely to show up.

Wildcard in this whole thing (and the most important factor) is still Daggett though.

[Eraserhead]

NJ.GOV2009.DEM 60.4

Theoretically, Christie should still be favored, but I wouldn't risk any kind of money on it at this point.

yeah, gun to my head I go with Christie

Why?

I think he was referring to electoral prediction, not preferred candidate.

Oh, I know that. I was just curious as to why he thinks Christie is still more likely to win.

I'd agree with that. Corzine has only barely lead in a few polls and I think his voters are less likely to show up.

Wildcard in this whole thing (and the most important factor) is still Daggett though.

Eh... the race is tied, Corzine is the one moving in a positive direction and it's New Jersey. I give it to him if forced to choose right now.

[CatoMinor]

The race should be close but I think Christie will win by one or two points but it will all depend on how well Daggett performs on election day.

[Vepres]

Interesting analysis of the recent trends

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2009/10/state-of-race-new-jersey-101309.html

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac out today with a new NJ poll at 11am.

[Mr.Phips]

I think Corzine wins mainly because for Obama he HAS to win.  Obama cannot afford to lose both of these races and I expect he will pull out all the stops for Corzine in the last weekend. 

[Rowan]

http://www.politickernj.com/editor/34040/quinnipiac-poll-shows-race-governor-dead-heat-christie-41-corzine-40-daggett-14

[Holmes]

Why are all Christie supporters always saying that Daggett is so not at 13% when every poll has him in that general area?

[Meeker]

Why are all Christie supporters always saying that Daggett is so not at 13% when every poll has him in that general area?

The theory is that a lot of Daggett support is just coming from people on the phone who want to register their disapproval with Corzine and Christie but voting for Daggett is the only method they're given. Come election time these voters may vote for another another minor candidate or just simply stay home, thus severely diluting Daggett's eventual total.

[Vepres]

Why are all Christie supporters always saying that Daggett is so not at 13% when every poll has him in that general area?

The theory is that a lot of Daggett support is just coming from people on the phone who want to register their disapproval with Corzine and Christie but voting for Daggett is the only method they're given. Come election time these voters may vote for another another minor candidate or just simply stay home, thus severely diluting Daggett's eventual total.

Additionally, if an independent doesn't seem to have a chance of winning, his numbers will probably drop near election day, and he'll under perform at the polls because people don't want to vote for somebody who doesn't have a chance.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why are all Christie supporters always saying that Daggett is so not at 13% when every poll has him in that general area?

The theory is that a lot of Daggett support is just coming from people on the phone who want to register their disapproval with Corzine and Christie but voting for Daggett is the only method they're given. Come election time these voters may vote for another another minor candidate or just simply stay home, thus severely diluting Daggett's eventual total.

It's exactly what's happened every other time there's been a third-party candidate in New Jersey.  The idea is that in a lot of Daggett-friendly (read: third-party friendly) counties, he's going to be absolutely buried on the ballot, literally under about eight or nine other candidates.

The question is whether Daggett voters will go through the effort to make the protest, pull the lever for one of the other 9 third-party candidates, or wind up pulling the lever for a major party candidate because polls are showing it to be a 50/50 race.

[Rowan]

Obama coming October 21st.

http://www.politickernj.com/editor/34087/obama-rally-corzine-set-1021

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Sign of the times: The RGA goes after Daggett in an ad.

"Daggett actually wants to tax you for getting your hair cut, your dry cleaning -- you name it," reads the announcer.  “Newspapers say Daggett's property tax plan is pretty much the same plan that Corzine cooked up. And that was a disaster."

[Rowan]

RGA knows they have VA so now they are going all out in NJ until the finish. I have seen a lot of RGA ads on tv today, more than I have ever seen before.

[RRusso1982]

I want to give my thoughts and analysis on this race.  I am an independant. I've polled for both Democrats and Republicans.  I still think Christie has the edge.  While Daggett is registering 14% in the latest Quinnipiac poll, only 39% of those who chose Daggett in the survey said their mind is made up.  Typically, what happens at the end of a campaign is people choose not to throw away their vote on a third party candidate who has no chance of winning.  Of the people who said they could change their mind, Christie has the advantage.  The other thing hurting Daggett is his name is hard to find on the ballot.  How many people will go through the trouble of actually looking for it just to make a statement?  I think in the end, Daggett's vote share is 5-8%.  Another thing to look at.  Corzine has spent nearly $20 million so far attacking Christie.  You would think he would have pulled ahead in all polls now.  In most polls, Christie still has a very small, but steady lead, with Daggett still registering in the double digits.  He has weathered the storm.  Christie is only starting to spend now.  He had to wait, or risk running out of money early, and the weight ad is just starting to backfire on Corzine.  I think that in the next week or so, Christie will start to edge ahead again.  The last week of the campaign, I think Christie will have around a 5 point lead again.  We'll see if I'm right.

Robert Russo

[Mr. Morden]

Wait a minute.  It just came to my attention that Mike DuHaime is advising Christie.  DuHaime was Giuliani's campaign manager in the epic disaster that was Giuliani's 2008 presidential run.  This gives me another opportunity to laugh at DuHaime's hilarious boasts from 2007:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/11/12/462680.aspx

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