2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[ajc0918]

Corzine (D): 44% (+3)
Christie (R): 40% (-2)
Daggett (I): 12% (+1)

From October 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,188 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1377

Where in the article did you get these numbers?

[Tender Branson]

Corzine (D): 44% (+3)
Christie (R): 40% (-2)
Daggett (I): 12% (+1)

From October 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,188 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1377

Where in the article did you get these numbers?

(it's fake)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Star Ledger just made a major boo boo. As a sponsor of next week's guv debate, they are forbidden from making an endorsement until afterward. It's a big deal because this debate is required by state campaign finance law.

Good job, Ledger.

[Eraserhead]

Star Ledger just made a major boo boo. As a sponsor of next week's guv debate, they are forbidden from making an endorsement until afterward. It's a big deal because this debate is required by state campaign finance law.

Good job, Ledger.

Wow, nobody over there considered that beforehand? Amazing.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Star Ledger just made a major boo boo. As a sponsor of next week's guv debate, they are forbidden from making an endorsement until afterward. It's a big deal because this debate is required by state campaign finance law.

Good job, Ledger.

Wow, nobody over there considered that beforehand? Amazing.

Strangely enough, they promised in their application to sponsor the debate that they wouldn't.  It really makes no sense.

(In case anyone's wondering, the Ledger usually endorses Democrats but endorsed Forrester in 2005.)

[Sam Spade]

Star Ledger just made a major boo boo. As a sponsor of next week's guv debate, they are forbidden from making an endorsement until afterward. It's a big deal because this debate is required by state campaign finance law.

Good job, Ledger.

Wow, nobody over there considered that beforehand? Amazing.

Strangely enough, they promised in their application to sponsor the debate that they wouldn't.  It really makes no sense.

(In case anyone's wondering, the Ledger usually endorses Democrats but endorsed Forrester in 2005.)

lol - though that's kind of expected for Newark.

What happens now?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Star Ledger just made a major boo boo. As a sponsor of next week's guv debate, they are forbidden from making an endorsement until afterward. It's a big deal because this debate is required by state campaign finance law.

Good job, Ledger.

Wow, nobody over there considered that beforehand? Amazing.

Strangely enough, they promised in their application to sponsor the debate that they wouldn't.  It really makes no sense.

(In case anyone's wondering, the Ledger usually endorses Democrats but endorsed Forrester in 2005.)

Actually, it makes quite a lot of sense, if they really want Corzine reelected.

Corzine is basically topping out with about 43% of the vote, with the rest of the electorate very unhappy with him.

So, if you split up the 57% of the anti-Corzine vote with enough going to Daggett, then Corzine gets reelected with 43%.

Christie is a pretty pathetic candidate who had to have the local Republican bosses carry him through the primary (he won it with a margin of about two votes per precinct statewide).

I believe that in a couple of weeks enough of the voters who are presently favoring Daggett will hold their noses and reluctantly vote for Christie to get rid of Corzine

[Mechaman]

I believe that in a couple of weeks enough of the voters who are presently favoring Daggett will hold their noses and reluctantly vote for Christie to get rid of Corzine

Do you really have that much faith in New Jersey voters?

[Eraserhead]

Star Ledger just made a major boo boo. As a sponsor of next week's guv debate, they are forbidden from making an endorsement until afterward. It's a big deal because this debate is required by state campaign finance law.

Good job, Ledger.

Wow, nobody over there considered that beforehand? Amazing.

Strangely enough, they promised in their application to sponsor the debate that they wouldn't.  It really makes no sense.

(In case anyone's wondering, the Ledger usually endorses Democrats but endorsed Forrester in 2005.)

Actually, it makes quite a lot of sense, if they really want Corzine reelected.

Corzine is basically topping out with about 43% of the vote, with the rest of the electorate very unhappy with him.

So, if you split up the 57% of the anti-Corzine vote with enough going to Daggett, then Corzine gets reelected with 43%.

Christie is a pretty pathetic candidate who had to have the local Republican bosses carry him through the primary (he won it with a margin of about two votes per precinct statewide).

I believe that in a couple of weeks enough of the voters who are presently favoring Daggett will hold their noses and reluctantly vote for Christie to get rid of Corzine

And Lonegan would have trounced Corzine, obviously.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Read what Mark Blumenthal at Pollster has to say:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nj_daggett_the_key_wild_card.php

[CARLHAYDEN]

I believe that in a couple of weeks enough of the voters who are presently favoring Daggett will hold their noses and reluctantly vote for Christie to get rid of Corzine

Do you really have that much faith in New Jersey voters?

Actually, its a pretty low standard, but hey, we're talking about New Jersey voters!

I believe that enough of them will come to realize the Daggett isn't going to be elected, and the thought of having to endure four more years of Corzine will reluctantly lead them to vote for Christie.

Do not believe that Chrisie will get a majority, but rather will get enough votes to beat Corzine.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

lol - though that's kind of expected for Newark.

What happens now?

Presumably, the only real consequences is that the Star Ledger probably has to pull (with embarassment) their sponsorship of the debate, and that they'll have trouble getting ELEC approval to sponsor future debates.

[Rowan]

lol - though that's kind of expected for Newark.

What happens now?

Presumably, the only real consequences is that the Star Ledger probably has to pull (with embarassment) their sponsorship of the debate, and that they'll have trouble getting ELEC approval to sponsor future debates.

That they did:


http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/33970/star-ledger-out-gubernatorial-debate-after-endorsing-daggett

[Tender Branson]

PPP reports that the race is a tie in their poll that is released tomorrow. Corzine had a good night on Friday, but Christie had a good weekend.

[Meeker]

Press of Atlantic City:

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[tmthforu94]

Press of Atlantic City:

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That's downright cruel. It would be like Obama making fun of McCain for not being able to raise his arms above his head, Biden making fun of Palin for looking like a flight attendent, McCain making funs of Obama for having large ears, or Palin making fun of Biden's hairplugs. It's just annoying and low.

[Verily]

Press of Atlantic City:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's downright cruel. It would be like Obama making fun of McCain for not being able to raise his arms above his head, Biden making fun of Palin for looking like a flight attendent, McCain making funs of Obama for having large ears, or Palin making fun of Biden's hairplugs. It's just annoying and low.

Well, in this case it was the press who asked the question. I actually thought Corzine's response was clever and even somewhat genial. "Yes, he's fat, it's really obvious, and I won't deny it just because you want me to, but hey, I'm bald, and people sometimes don't like that, too, maybe a lot of us have flaws."

I mean, really? Was Corzine supposed to say that someone who is morbidly obese isn't fat just to be nice? Right, because shifting standards don't have anything to do with the obesity epidemic...

[Aizen]

Press of Atlantic City:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's downright cruel.

No, not really.

[Eraserhead]

Press of Atlantic City:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This response actually improves my opinion of Corzine a little.

[Rowan]

PPP reports that the race is a tie in their poll that is released tomorrow. Corzine had a good night on Friday, but Christie had a good weekend.

They didn't say tie, they said tossup. They probably have Christie up by 2 or something.

[Meeker]

I do have to give the Corzine campaign credit for making Christie's weight a legitimate issue in the campaign and not just something everyone recognizes but doesn't talk about.

I should note my praise is from a purely practical standpoint and has no relation to my moral standards whatsoever.

[Verily]

I do have to give the Corzine campaign credit for making Christie's weight a legitimate issue in the campaign and not just something everyone recognizes but doesn't talk about.

I should note my praise is from a purely practical standpoint and has no relation to my moral standards whatsoever.

Well, yeah, other things about it have been less savory. The idea that this particular quotation was objectionable is what bothered me, not the whole strategy.

Although completely ignoring it might have been PC, it's also quite stupid, on the level of the individual voter rather than the campaign. Unless someone has a diagnosed disorder (thyroid, etc.), anyone and everyone can control their weight, and being obese reflects very poorly on your judgment, much in the same way smoking does (and if Obama hadn't been making a serious offer to stop smoking, it would have really bothered me).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I do have to give the Corzine campaign credit for making Christie's weight a legitimate issue in the campaign and not just something everyone recognizes but doesn't talk about.

I should note my praise is from a purely practical standpoint and has no relation to my moral standards whatsoever.

Well, yeah, other things about it have been less savory. The idea that this particular quotation was objectionable is what bothered me, not the whole strategy.

Although completely ignoring it might have been PC, it's also quite stupid, on the level of the individual voter rather than the campaign. Unless someone has a diagnosed disorder (thyroid, etc.), anyone and everyone can control their weight, and being obese reflects very poorly on your judgment, much in the same way smoking does (and if Obama hadn't been making a serious offer to stop smoking, it would have really bothered me).

As someone who used to be severely overweight, I highly dislike the constant fat-mocking undertone that the Democratic Party in general has taken this campaign.  Some people have a much harder time dealing with their metabolism than others to an intense degree, and frankly, all this talk about judging Christie based on a "health issue" smacks of justification of the kind of torturous garbage I had to put up with every goddamn day in High School.

Christie's being fat is about as relevant as Corzine's being bald. The only difference is that the Christie camp doesn't make mean-spirited references to Corzine's head.

[Rowan]

Christie 40%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_1013930.pdf

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Good news for Corzine, I guess, but things are worsening for Dems on the general Assembly ballot.  The GOP has expanded to a six point lead there.  We may be heading into a 1993-like scenario where people vote Republican for Assembly as a hedge against a Corzine re-election.