onward to 2010 (because it's never too early)

[Sam Spade]

I think Northup could maybe take down Bunning. He's not entrenched in key areas the way Fletcher was, although Northup is now way past her political sell-by date.

The factors that held her back in the governor's race still apply.

Yep.  McConnell really is the rarity in Kentucky politics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You forgot one
West Virginia-Special Election. Lets face it Robert Byrd is in bad condition and he may not be around this time next year. Given how WV has shifted to the GOP over the years and with the Filibuster on the line I would say this would be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP espcially if Shelley Moore Capito(R-WV) runs. Even though I don;t like Byrd that much I think he will be a big loss to the Senate.

The Republicans just got murdered in the state elections in WV (again). And Capito would have some problems appealing to voters outside her district for one or two reasons though, really, most things would depend on the Democratic primary (both in terms of viciousness (Democratic primaries in WV can be really, really nasty) and, of course, of who gets the nod).

[phk]

Isn't the senate a demotion from the CA Governorship?  Besides, that demotion isn't worth the risk of a potentially embarrassing loss.

California has term limits.  I'm not sure how Arnie's partial first term counts toward that.

I'm positive he's termed out.

[Keystone Phil]

Specter will definitely hold it in both the primary and the general if he runs again. If not, it'll be interesting to see who the Republicans scrounge up.

Definitely? Specter has hardly ever been a definite in a Republican primary. He definitely won't be a definite in 2010.

[AndrewTX]

I still wonder what will happen to Dodd. Is he going to run again, or will more trouble make him retire at the end of his term, or will he resign. If so, who would Rell put in the seat to make it competitive.

[Verily]

Specter will definitely hold it in both the primary and the general if he runs again. If not, it'll be interesting to see who the Republicans scrounge up.

Definitely? Specter has hardly ever been a definite in a Republican primary. He definitely won't be a definite in 2010.

Okay, Toomey. 2010 is not 2004. He's a lock for the primary this time around.

[Keystone Phil]

Specter will definitely hold it in both the primary and the general if he runs again. If not, it'll be interesting to see who the Republicans scrounge up.

Definitely? Specter has hardly ever been a definite in a Republican primary. He definitely won't be a definite in 2010.

Okay, Toomey. 2010 is not 2004. He's a lock for the primary this time around.

What does that have to do with anything? Conservatives outnumber moderates/liberals in our primary. Specter is older and sick. You're insane if you think he's a lock if he has an opponent.

[minionofmidas]

You forgot one
West Virginia-Special Election. Lets face it Robert Byrd is in bad condition and he may not be around this time next year. Given how WV has shifted to the GOP over the years and with the Filibuster on the line I would say this would be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP espcially if Shelley Moore Capito(R-WV) runs. Even though I don;t like Byrd that much I think he will be a big loss to the Senate.

The Republicans just got murdered in the state elections in WV (again). And Capito would have some problems appealing to voters outside her district for one or two reasons though, really, most things would depend on the Democratic primary (both in terms of viciousness (Democratic primaries in WV can be really, really nasty) and, of course, of who gets the nod).

Let's just say that her running's a conditio sine qua non if this is supposed to be remotely interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

I got a name today for the Senate seat here in PA. I won't say who it is or what party he/she belongs to but it's someone that has been mentioned for another office. I'll give one hint: young.

[Brittain33]

I got a name today for the Senate seat here in PA. I won't say who it is or what party he/she belongs to but it's someone that has been mentioned for another office. I'll give one hint: young.

Hafer Jr.?

[Keystone Phil]

I got a name today for the Senate seat here in PA. I won't say who it is or what party he/she belongs to but it's someone that has been mentioned for another office. I'll give one hint: young.

Hafer Jr.?

Haha! Oh, how I'd love that! Sadly, no.

That's the only answer I'm giving though. 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Inouye taking over Appropriations means he'll be safe in 2010 if he runs.

[Erc]

Inouye taking over Appropriations means he'll be safe in 2010 if he runs.

Even Ed Case wouldn't be insane enough to challenge Inouye in the primary...

[TeePee4Prez]

Specter will definitely hold it in both the primary and the general if he runs again. If not, it'll be interesting to see who the Republicans scrounge up.

Definitely? Specter has hardly ever been a definite in a Republican primary. He definitely won't be a definite in 2010.

The conservative bench in PA is a bit weakened.  Hart, Fitzpatrick, and Toomey would have been out of politics for a while.  You need Specter to keep this seat GOP.  I wouldn't be bitching about him too much because Allyson Schwartz is a very strong candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

Inouye taking over Appropriations means he'll be safe in 2010 if he runs.

Especially given Obama's 72% in the state. 

[Keystone Phil]

Specter will definitely hold it in both the primary and the general if he runs again. If not, it'll be interesting to see who the Republicans scrounge up.

Definitely? Specter has hardly ever been a definite in a Republican primary. He definitely won't be a definite in 2010.

The conservative bench in PA is a bit weakened.  Hart, Fitzpatrick, and Toomey would have been out of politics for a while.  You need Specter to keep this seat GOP.  I wouldn't be bitching about him too much because Allyson Schwartz is a very strong candidate.

Toomey has been very involved in politics since his loss. Hart is basically finished (or at least needs to take a few years off) and Fitz is sick.

Schwartz won't be very strong statewide. I'm not thinking of a landslide against her but I'm confident that we'd be favored (especially in a midterm).

[TeePee4Prez]

Specter will definitely hold it in both the primary and the general if he runs again. If not, it'll be interesting to see who the Republicans scrounge up.

Definitely? Specter has hardly ever been a definite in a Republican primary. He definitely won't be a definite in 2010.

The conservative bench in PA is a bit weakened.  Hart, Fitzpatrick, and Toomey would have been out of politics for a while.  You need Specter to keep this seat GOP.  I wouldn't be bitching about him too much because Allyson Schwartz is a very strong candidate.

Toomey has been very involved in politics since his loss. Hart is basically finished (or at least needs to take a few years off) and Fitz is sick.

Schwartz won't be very strong statewide. I'm not thinking of a landslide against her but I'm confident that we'd be favored (especially in a midterm).

Schwartz getting 63% in a Pres year in what was once a Republican district is pretty impressive.  She has a good record and will have deep pockets.  You may want to reword that- Which ultra-conservative will Allyson not be able to win a landlside over?  Ok, for arguments sake I'll give you Pat Toomey.  If Obama's 1st 2 years are a success, then Toomey would be screwed.  If not he has a chance.  Your best chances against Allyson are Arlen Specter and Tom Ridge.  That's it. 

htmldon has a good point.  If the CFG wants to keep picking off moderate Republicans, they are giftwrapping elections for Democrats to win and even in conservative states and districts, that's the case.  Toomey would have to overcome massive margins in the Southeast in order to beat Schwartz.  I don't see that happening for many Republicans other than Specter and even Ridge is questionable on that.

[ag]

Schwartz getting 63% in a Pres year in what was once a Republican district is pretty impressive. 

She faced a real joke opponent this time.

[Josh/Devilman88]

When should we find out who are going to run?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I got a name today for the Senate seat here in PA. I won't say who it is or what party he/she belongs to but it's someone that has been mentioned for another office. I'll give one hint: young.

Was it that Buchanan women that was mentioned as a potential candidate for PA-03 Phil?

[Ronnie]

Hoeven vs. Dorgan would be a helluva race.  I just hope he runs/we force him to run.

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz getting 63% in a Pres year in what was once a Republican district is pretty impressive.  She has a good record and will have deep pockets.  You may want to reword that- Which ultra-conservative will Allyson not be able to win a landlside over?  Ok, for arguments sake I'll give you Pat Toomey.  If Obama's 1st 2 years are a success, then Toomey would be screwed.  If not he has a chance.  Your best chances against Allyson are Arlen Specter and Tom Ridge.  That's it.

Schwartz winning over a district full of RINOs. Big deal. Plus, we ran joke candidates in 2006 and 2008.

Toomey is as ultra conservative as Schwartz is ultra liberal.  

Schwartz getting 63% in a Pres year in what was once a Republican district is pretty impressive. 

She faced a real joke opponent this time.

And an even bigger one last time.

I got a name today for the Senate seat here in PA. I won't say who it is or what party he/she belongs to but it's someone that has been mentioned for another office. I'll give one hint: young.

Was it that Buchanan women that was mentioned as a potential candidate for PA-03 Phil?

In all fairness, I can't comment. I said I wouldn't comment on anyone else after Hafer, Jr. was mentioned. 

[Keystone Phil]

I got a name today for the Senate seat here in PA. I won't say who it is or what party he/she belongs to but it's someone that has been mentioned for another office. I'll give one hint: young.

Doesn't seem like much of a secret anymore - http://www.postgazette.com/pg/08314/926602-178.stm

Check the second half of the article. The guy's name is mentioned. Oddly enough, I didn't see Schwartz's name there.

[Insula Dei]

You know, reading this I feel a lot of real nostalgia for good old 2008.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Much like all our predictions, this one will look laughable two years from now. 

When was the last time this wasn't true lol