Obama likely to win NE02

[2952-0-0]

http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10480262

[Ronnie]

[bgwah]

It would be funnier if this were breaking a 269-269 tie.

[Hash]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The pattern of strong support for Obama in the metropolitan areas (even little ones like Omaha) is confirmed, yet again.

[Lief 🗽]

The pattern of strong support for Obama in the metropolitan areas (even little ones like Omaha) is confirmed, yet again.

He's our first Metropolitan president.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The pattern of strong support for Obama in the metropolitan areas (even little ones like Omaha) is confirmed, yet again.

He's our first Metropolitan president.

FDR? What exactly is that supposed to mean?

[Lief 🗽]

The pattern of strong support for Obama in the metropolitan areas (even little ones like Omaha) is confirmed, yet again.

He's our first Metropolitan president.

FDR? What exactly is that supposed to mean?

He's culturally metropolitan. He's from the city. As far as I can tell, that's very much a first for American presidents, who have generally either come from small-town patrician families or who grew up in rural areas.

[Erc]

If (big if) the c. 16k early/provisional votes break the same way the rest did (around 51-48 for Obama), that's no more than 500 votes net for Obama...so NE-02 is still very much a tossup.

[Torie]

The vote fraud juggernaut is apparently so massive, that even when it is no longer needed, it just keeps rolling along by virtue of sheer momentum.

On the other hand, maybe the shocks troops will now decamp to Minnesota. Stay tuned.

[Franzl]

If (big if) the c. 16k early/provisional votes break the same way the rest did (around 51-48 for Obama), that's no more than 500 votes net for Obama...so NE-02 is still very much a tossup.

The article said Obama won 61% of already counted early votes.

[Rural Radical]

When was the last time one of the Nebraska Cds didnt go with the statewide winner?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When was the last time one of the Nebraska Cds didnt go with the statewide winner?

It's never happend since they introduced the CD system.

[Rural Radical]

When was the last time one of the Nebraska Cds didnt go with the statewide winner?

It's never happend since they introduced the CD system.

I didnt think it had.

Im assuming the CD that Obama looks like winning is the most eastern one that contains Omaha?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Im assuming the CD that Obama looks like winning is the most eastern one that contains Omaha?

Actually, it's the far western ultra-agricultural one.

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[Platypus]

I had a big debate with my housemate about whether this was more or less democratic than the whle-state method. I *think* we agreed that it was for smaller, less gerrymandered states like Nebraska (although that's questionable) and Maine, but that it would harm democracy in states like California, Texas, Georgia etc.

[rbt48]

Heck, I live here.  I couldn't figure out why the GOP dominated legislature didn't change the law back to WTA, with friendly Gov Heineman ready to sign, I'm sure. 

Democrats made noise about pulling out a win in CD-2 back in 2000 and 2004.  They came up more than 20% short both times.  I think this system was first in effect for the 1996 election, but I'm unsure.  After the 2000 census, as Omaha grew, the amount of the CD encompassing Sarpy County (south of Omaha with Bellevue, Papillion, Offutt AFB, etc) became smaller.  Sarpy is very Republican:  McCain won it 57 to 41.  So with less of this county in CD 2, Omaha (and surrounding Douglas County) provide 85% of the votes. 

Provisional ballots, even in Republican Nebraska, trend Democratic, for reasons cited multiple times in this forum.  And Obama ran a highly visible campaign in Omaha:  many TV ads, perhaps four times more than McCain.  In my 15 years here, I had never seen a Presidential campaign ad on a local network before.  So, I'd bet the farm that McCain's slender lead in CD-2 vanishes and that, when all is said and done, Obama picks up a net of ~3000 votes and wins the CD by over 2000.

As a Republican, Nebraska is stupid to let this happen.  The new state legislature is looking to be 32R - 17D, so they should revoke the law and return to WTA.  Alternatively, when they redistrict in 2011, they can divide Omaha into 2 CDs and dilute the Democratic vote with overwhelmingly Republican outstate areas.

So, BL question: if the entire country used this system, what would the EV count have been for 2008?  Maybe someone can sit down and crank out the answer, though some states don't really make determining CD winners an easy task.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

So, BL question: if the entire country used this system, what would the EV count have been for 2008?  Maybe someone can sit down and crank out the answer, though some states don't really make determining CD winners an easy task.

I don't know offhand what the result would be, but I can tell you that the negative effects of going CD would be just as bad as if we went PV.  Democrats would concentrate on drumming up support in urban CDs and Republicans would concentrate on the countryside.  America would become more divided than it is now.  At least the WTA system forces Democrats to go to Akron and Republicans to go to Cleveland.

It would also be 10 times the zoo that our current system is on Election Day.  Right now we have 56 races (50 states, DC, ME CDs, NE CDs).  If we go by CD everywhere, we'll have 486 races.  If the election is at all close, we'll be waiting on 10 or 20 of those for days or possibly WEEKS before we know for sure who won the EC.  2000 will happen EVERY FOUR YEARS.

[Nutmeg]

I had a big debate with my housemate about whether this was more or less democratic than the whle-state method. I *think* we agreed that it was for smaller, less gerrymandered states like Nebraska (although that's questionable) and Maine, but that it would harm democracy in states like California, Texas, Georgia etc.

It would make for some interesting dynamics in certain states, making some more attractive for national campaigning (say, states that are currently safe for one party but with districts that could go either way) and some less so (say, states that are currently competitive statewide but rather polarized across their districts).  In states adopting such a system, there might even be some incentive by those drawing CDs to create some swing districts in order to attract national campaigns.

Georgia isn't gerrymandered anymore.

[minionofmidas]

The pattern of strong support for Obama in the metropolitan areas (even little ones like Omaha) is confirmed, yet again.

Much smaller ones, too.

[exopolitician]

So....whats the deal?