New HoR State Delegations (now with Senate too!)

[Associate Justice PiT]

AZ (tie-->D)
ID (R-->tie)
KS (tie-->R)
NV (R-->D)
NM (R-->D)
OH (R-->D pending further notice in OH-15)
VA (R-->tie pending further notice in VA-05)

     32-16-2, changed from 28-20-2 before the election. Worth noting that KS was the only state delegation that the Republicans actually picked up here. I could do one for the Senate too, if there is any interest.

[Lief 🗽]

NM is now 5-0 Democratic in it's Congressional delegation. And Colorado has switched from 7-2 Republican to 7-2 Democrat in 6 years. The possible +3 house seat gain in Virginia is also pretty remarkable.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

OH should be in the same category as VA since it depends on OH-15 where the Republican is ahead by a wide margin and if it is declared for the GOP then OH will be 9-9 tie

[Associate Justice PiT]

NM is now 5-0 Democratic in it's Congressional delegation. And Colorado has switched from 7-2 Republican to 7-2 Democrat in 6 years. The possible +3 house seat gain in Virginia is also pretty remarkable.

     This is HoR-only. I could do them both if you want.

[MarkWarner08]

OH's delegation hinges on OH-15.  It's still up in the air.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

OH's delegation hinges on OH-15.  It's still up in the air.

Yes but the plane is near landing. Do you really think Kilroy has a shot?

[Nutmeg]

VA (tie pending runoff in VA-05)

Runoff?

[MarkWarner08]

OH's delegation hinges on OH-15.  It's still up in the air.

Yes but the plane is near landing. Do you really think Kilroy has a shot?

No. In which case, the delegation should be colored green.

[Associate Justice PiT]

VA (tie pending runoff in VA-05)

Runoff?

     CNN still has it as gray, even though 100% of precincts are in. I guessed that that meant a runoff, though I'll change it if that isn't the case. I forgot about the possibility of a recount though.

[Lunar]

Kind of funny compared to this picture:

[Brittain33]

OH's delegation hinges on OH-15.  It's still up in the air.

Yes but the plane is near landing. Do you really think Kilroy has a shot?

No. In which case, the delegation should be colored green.

This article certainly makes it sound as if Kilroy has a shot, and may even be favored, to overcome Stivers' ~300 vote lead. I can't judge.

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/11/05/limbo.html?sid=101

On edit: this is even more recent:

http://www.wtte28.com/template/inews_wire/wires.regional.oh/3f5a0fb5-www.wtte28.com.shtml

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[Lief 🗽]

Wasn't this supposed to be a slam-dunk, pretty secure pickup? I did meet Kilroy, a few weeks ago, and found her kind of unimpressive, but still assumed she would win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wasn't this supposed to be a slam-dunk, pretty secure pickup? I did meet Kilroy, a few weeks ago, and found her kind of unimpressive, but still assumed she would win.

Well, the people on Swing State Project were furious that the DCCC was spending there last week, because they thought it was in the bag. The most recent poll had something like a 47-41 lead for Kilroy.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Nothing would be sweeter for me than taking control of the Virginia delegation

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Okay, I changed OH & VA to mention that both were "pending further notice," since it will depend on what happens with OH-15 & VA-05.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Here's the Senate (not as interesting, but still should be done):

AK (R pending further notice)
CO (tie-->D)
GA (R pending further notice)
MN (tie pending further notice)
NH (R-->tie)
NM (tie-->D)
NC (R-->tie)
OR (tie pending further notice)
VA (tie-->D)

     Dems lead 21-15-14. That's a change from a Dem lead of 18-17-15. I'm also counting Lieberman & Sanders as Democrats, since to do otherwise would be misleading.

[Lunar]

The senate map is interesting.  Minus Maine and Nebraska, it looks almost exactly like a national Democratic landslide with many of the "swing states" in normal elections split.

[Padfoot]

Wasn't this supposed to be a slam-dunk, pretty secure pickup? I did meet Kilroy, a few weeks ago, and found her kind of unimpressive, but still assumed she would win.

Kilroy has always been a terrible candidate which is why she wasn't elected in 2006.  I was really disappointed when no one opposed her in the Dem primary.  Two times in a row she had relied too heavily on the Columbus portion of the district while allowing her Republican candidate to rack up big margins in the less populated western portion.  If she loses again, hopefully the Democrats will somehow keep her from running in 2010.

[ag]

So, let us consider the states, where the presidential preference, both senators, the majority of the House delegation, the governor and the majorities in both chambers of the legislature are of the same party. Quite a few of these actually:

"All D" states (10): WA, OR, CO, NM, IL, WI, MD, NJ, NY, MA. Interestingly enough, not at all very Northeastern list.

"All R" states (4 or 5?) UT, TX, GA (likely, unless Chambliss looses the runoff), SC. One can add NE, as I am sure most of the state legislators would have been republican AK is missing the list, since the state Senate is now tied (even if we forget the coalition business).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well it certainly looks like Kilroy has a decent shot in OH-15 now. But I think that even if Stivers loses he can have the satisfaction of overcoming the huge poll deficits.

[Brittain33]

Well it certainly looks like Kilroy has a decent shot in OH-15 now. But I think that even if Stivers loses he can have the satisfaction of overcoming the huge poll deficits.

He had some good polls before the election. The comeback, and it was remarkable, happened in late summer.

[nclib]

"All R" states...One can add NE

Nebraska has a Dem in the Senate--Ben Nelson.

[ag]

"All R" states...One can add NE

Nebraska has a Dem in the Senate--Ben Nelson.

Idiot me! I didn't sleep enough - my only lame excuse

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Here are the combined Congressional delegations of each state:

     Without even getting into the changes, the map enumerates the complete weakness of the Republicans in the Northeast, or even the Midwest for that matter.

[Stranger in a strange land]

     Here are the combined Congressional delegations of each state:

     Without even getting into the changes, the map enumerates the complete weakness of the Republicans in the Northeast, or even the Midwest for that matter.

or in the West outside of Mormon areas and Alaska (which is heavily settled by migrants from the Bible Belt)