Phil's Predictions for the 4th - Senate and some House races

[Keystone Phil]

I'm special (and my predictions seem to get a lot of attention for some reason ) so I'm doing my own threads. Let's start with a run down of key House races in PA that I care or somewhat about...



PA 3 - English (R) vs. Dahlkemper (D)

Bad year and Dahlkemper's centrist appeal will mean another pickup for the Dems. English still should have won here.

Dahlkemper by four - Dem pickup

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PA 4 - Altmire (D) vs. Hart (R)

I really don't even want to comment on this one. You should have worked just a bit harder in 2006, Melissa.

Altmire by ten - Dem hold

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PA 6 - Gerlach (R) vs. Roggio (D)

Jim got very lucky here. Even with an unknown, third tier opponent, he had to go negative. That's how bad this year has been. That being said, Gerlach holds on...again.

Gerlach by six - GOP hold

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PA 7 - Sestak (D) vs. Williams (R)

Williams has been hyped a bit more than I expected and even got the endorsement of The Inquirer (I still don't know what that was about) but Sestak's district is going for Obama and he hasn't messed up in any significant way.

Sestak by twelve - Dem hold

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PA 8 - Murphy (D) vs. Manion (R)

The only good chance at a pickup here would have been with Fitzpatrick. Unfortunately, Murphy is too strong and Manion isn't top tier. Some people talk of an upset here; I'm not one of them.

Murphy by eleven - Dem hold

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PA 10 - Carney (D) vs. Hackett (R)

I warned people against claiming this would be an automatic GOP pickup this year. Hackett isn't a strong enough candidate and Carney hasn't been awful. Maybe next time, guys.

Carney by ten - Dem hold

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PA 11 - Kanjorski (D) vs. Barletta (R)

Kanjo's scandals and Barletta's personal popularity will make this one of the few GOP pickups of the night. That being said, it'll still be a close race.

Barletta by four - GOP pickup

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PA 12 - Murtha (D) vs. Russell (R)

Murtha came down with a case of foot in mouth again and he's running scared. Too bad it won't be enough.

Murtha by six - Dem hold

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PA 13 - Schwartz (D) vs. Kats (R)

Not that I care much about this race (what a difference four years makes) but I'm obligated to throw in my two cents here. Kats has been a visible candidate but Schwartz isn't scandal plagued and has enough money to put almost anyone away in this district (especially in this year).

Schwartz by twenty two - Dem hold



Senate predictions coming up next...

[minionofmidas]

Pretty reasonable all round. Although my *guess* (and it is just a guess) is that you're still letting your enthusiasm run wild on Murtha.

[Keystone Phil]

U.S. Senate predictions...

Virginia

The easiest pickup in quite some time.

Warner by thirty - Dem pickup

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New Hampshire

One of my favorite Senators is going down. Everytime it looked like there was hope for Sununu, Shaheen came back with a double digit lead. It won't be that bad tomorrow but Sununu will still lose.

Shaheen by eight - Dem pickup

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New Mexico

I thought we were going to lose this one right off the bat (with some glimmers of hope every once in awhile). Another easy Dem pickup...

Udall by fourteen - Dem pickup

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Colorado

Another one I thought was gone from the beginning (with some glimmers of hope every once in awhile). Dems grab this one, too...

Udall by ten - Dem pickup

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Alaska

I thought Stevens was going to get a narrow victory here but then he got convicted. I wouldn't be shocked if Alaska was to stick it to the Feds but I don't see it happening.

Begich by ten - Dem pickup

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Oregon

I really liked Smith but then he started with some extreme pandering. That doesn't help when there is a very conservative third party alternative for far right wingers in Oregon. Plus, that Obama ad is going to work wonders for Merkley.

Merkley by seven - Dem pickup

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North Carolina

Don't get me started. Thanks for tossing another race away, Liddy!

Hagan by five - Dem pickup

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Georgia

Chambliss will have to go to a runoff but he'll hang on.

Chambliss by three tomorrow but under 50% - Easy win in the runoff - GOP hold

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Kentucky

Mitch is going to get lucky.

McConnell by six - GOP hold

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Mississippi - Special

Wicker holds off Musgrove.

Wicker by eight - GOP hold

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Minnesota

Closest race of the night. Thank God Coleman will hang on. I have Barkley getting 16% of the vote, 2% for all other candidates, 40% for Franken and 42% for Coleman.

Coleman by two - GOP hold


That means a Dem pickup of seven seats.

[Keystone Phil]

Pretty reasonable all round. Although my *guess* (and it is just a guess) is that you're still letting your enthusiasm run wild on Murtha.

Eh, who cares? I still have him winning (which is all that matters).

[minionofmidas]

U.S. Senate predictions...

Virginia

The easiest pickup in quite some time.

Warner by thirty - Dem pickup

Illinois 2004?

[Keystone Phil]

U.S. Senate predictions...

Virginia

The easiest pickup in quite some time.

Warner by thirty - Dem pickup

Illinois 2004?

Oh...wow. That's right. Well, it's been quite some time since 2004. 

[Sam Spade]

Looks reasonable to me.

[Nutmeg]

I'm with you on every one of the outcomes.

[Hash]

I'm with you on every one of the outcomes.

[Lunar]

I'm with you on every one of the outcomes.

Maybe a couple % here or there on the senate races, but otherwise I agree.

[Nutmeg]

I'm with you on every one of the outcomes.

Maybe a couple % here or there on the senate races, but otherwise I agree.

Oh, yeah, I was referring to the win/loss records; it's not that I disagree on percentages, but rather that I just have no idea on some of them.

[TeePee4Prez]

Good job Phil.  I agree with them, but am holding out hope for a 6th pickup due to Obama support and an 11th hold.  I'm calling a narrow Kanjo hold due to his ability to bring home the bacon.