13 red states; in what order do they fall for obama, how many will he win/lose

[AngelFromKansas]

Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada

OBAMA WINS RACE 301-237
1 Iowa; mccain was never going to win here with his stance on ethanol.
2 New Mexico; i dont know anything about new mexico but the pollingis very strong dem.
3 Nevada; clark counties 80,000 new registration should frighten the life out of republicans.
4 Virginia; allen got close than expected. webb ws up by 2. obama is up 5 so he will win 51-48
5 Colorado; mccain should have been here more. religious fascists will drop obama to 50%
6 Ohio; neither candidate will break 50%. dont underestimate the rural southwestern vote.

7 North Carolina; it will be very close. both wont break 50% but obama will lose narrowly.
8 North Dakota' MY UPSET OF THE NIGHT. obama plays well like conrad and dorgan. break 48%
9 Florida; republicans run the state, naughty tactics reported already. expect mccain win.
10 Indiana; congressional victories has made race very competitve but will fall short.
11 Montana; dont see it happening wil btreak 46-47
12 Missouri; no-longer a centrist state. far more conservative.
13 Arizona ; polling was wrong in 2006 expect easy mccain victory 8-10pts.

[opebo]

Will fall for Obama:

1) Iowa
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado

Might fall for Obama:

4) Nevada
5) Virginia

Will not fall for Obama:

6) Florida
7) Ohio
8. Missouri
9) North Carolina
10) Indiana
11) Arizona
12) Georgia
13) North Dakota
14) Montana

[Platypus]

1) New Mexico
2) Iowa
3) Colorado
4) Virginia
5) Nevada
6) North Carolina
7) Florida
Ohio
9) Indiana
10) North Dakota

11) Montana
12) Georgia
13) Arizona

[JSojourner]

Will fall for Obama:

1) Iowa
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado

Might fall for Obama:

4) Nevada
5) Virginia

Will not fall for Obama:

6) Florida
7) Ohio
8. Missouri
9) North Carolina
10) Indiana
11) Arizona
12) Georgia
13) North Dakota
14) Montana

I pretty much agree with Opebo's assessment.  Except that I think Nevada WILL fall for Obama and Ohio MIGHT.

[Josh/Devilman88]

In order the will fall. Abover line Obama wins.

IA
NM
CO
VA
NC

NV
OH
FL
MO
ND
MT
IN
GA
AZ

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

IA
NM
CO
VA
NV
OH
FL
MO
ND
NC
MT
IN
GA
AZ

[Josh/Devilman88]

IA
NM
CO
VA
NV
OH
FL
MO
ND
NC
MT
IN
GA
AZ

You must have smoked to much of that crack if you think ND will fall before NC.

[kevinatcausa]

IA
NM
CO
NV
VA
___________________________________________________________________________________________

OH
FL
MO
MT
NC
ND
IN
GA
AZ

[elcorazon]

IA
CO
NM
VA
FL
OH
NV
MO
___________________________________________________________________________________________

IN
NC
MT
GA
ND
AZ

[Adam Griffin]

IA
NM
CO
VA
NV
OH
FL
MO
GA
ND
MT
IN
AZ

[Lief 🗽]

IA
NM
CO
VA
NV
OH
FL
MO
ND
NC
MT
IN
GA
AZ

You must have smoked to much of that crack if you think ND will fall before NC.

It's certainly possible. ND has same-day registration and is more likely to swing a large amount, because preferences haven't been solidified as much as in a swing-state like NC.

[TheGlobalizer]

Order = likelihood.

IA - Obama win
NM - Obama likely
CO - Obama lean
VA - Tossup (slight lean Obama)
OH - McCain lean
FL - McCain lean
NV - McCain lean
MO - McCain likely
NC - McCain likely
IN - McCain likely
MT - McCain win
ND - McCain win
AZ - McCain win
GA - McCain win

[Lief 🗽]

Order = likelihood.

IA - Obama win
NM - Obama likely
CO - Obama lean
VA - Tossup (slight lean Obama)
OH - McCain lean
FL - McCain lean
NV - McCain lean
MO - McCain likely
NC - McCain likely
IN - McCain likely
MT - McCain win
ND - McCain win
AZ - McCain win
GA - McCain win

lol, will be bumped on Nov 5.

[TheGlobalizer]

Order = likelihood.

IA - Obama win
NM - Obama likely
CO - Obama lean
VA - Tossup (slight lean Obama)
OH - McCain lean
FL - McCain lean
NV - McCain lean
MO - McCain likely
NC - McCain likely
IN - McCain likely
MT - McCain win
ND - McCain win
AZ - McCain win
GA - McCain win

lol, will be bumped on Nov 5.

I figured you'd be back in your cave by then.

[Daniel Z]

Obama wins:
1. Iowa
2. New Mexico

Obama Probably Wins:
3. Colorado
4. Nevade
5. Virginia

Slight Obama Lean:
6. Ohio
7. Florida

Slight McCain Lean:
8. North Carolina
9. Missouri
10. Georgia

Probably McCain
11. Montana
12. Indiana
13. North Dakota
14. Arizona

[J. J.]

Will fall for Obama:

1) Iowa
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado

Might fall for Obama:

4) Nevada
5) Virginia

Will not fall for Obama:

6) Florida
7) Ohio
8. Missouri
9) North Carolina
10) Indiana
11) Arizona
12) Georgia
13) North Dakota
14) Montana

I pretty much agree with Opebo's assessment.  Except that I think Nevada WILL fall for Obama and Ohio MIGHT.

And you are not the only one, but I think he's right on NV and wrong on IN. 

[Monty]

Obama wins by margin of victory (from largest to smallest)
1) Iowa
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado
4) Nevada
5) Virginia
6) Ohio
7) Florida
8 North Carolina
9) Indiana
10) Missouri
11) North Dakota
12) Montana

McCain wins
1) Arizona
2) Georgia

[opebo]

Order = likelihood.

IA - Obama win
NM - Obama likely
CO - Obama lean
VA - Tossup (slight lean Obama)
OH - McCain lean
FL - McCain lean
NV - McCain lean
MO - McCain likely
NC - McCain likely
IN - McCain likely
MT - McCain win
ND - McCain win
AZ - McCain win
GA - McCain win

lol, will be bumped on Nov 5.

Bumped why?  Not only is it exactly correct, it is a very moderate prediction.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

IA
NM
CO
VA
NV
OH

FL
NC
MO
IN
ND
MT
GA
AZ

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Senator Obama WINS¹

Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
Virginia
Ohio
North Carolina
Florida

Senator McCain WINS¹

Indiana
Missouri
North Dakota
Montana
Georgia
Arizona

^{1: State order of placement in no particular order}

[Person Man]

IA - 55-44
NM- 53-46
CO  51-47
VA   51-48
NV   50-49
OH   49-49

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FL 50-49
NC 51-48
MO 51-48
IN 52-47
ND 53-46
MT 52-47
GA 53-46
AZ 53.5-45.5