MT-PPP: Obama up by a single point

[Tender Branson]

Obama - 48
McCain - 47
Paul - 4

PPP surveyed 2,734 likely voters from October 31st to November 2nd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-1.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Montana_1103623.pdf

[exopolitician]

Lies. all of it.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm sorry, but until PPP proves themselves to be credible anywhere outside of NC, they can churn out as many polls as they want, it doesn't meant they are accurate. Did they even poll anywhere in 2004? Or are they just a Democratic group that was started in Raleigh this cycle?

[HardRCafé]

Longshot prediction:  after the election, PPP will turn out to be "the Hagan family."

[Lunar]

This isn't a crazy "PPP" sucks type of poll.  If Obama is indeed 8% ahead, being 1% ahead in MT is predictable.  4% for Paul is ok too.

[The Ex-Factor]

I'm sorry, but until PPP proves themselves to be credible anywhere outside of NC, they can churn out as many polls as they want, it doesn't meant they are accurate. Did they even poll anywhere in 2004? Or are they just a Democratic group that was started in Raleigh this cycle?

I agree with this criticism. There are ways to point out that PPP's polling numbers lean Democratic without calling it "piss poor polling".

Not inclined to trust this poll. I do find it hilarious that Kelleher is still getting 26% though. We'll see if he does as well as Keyes!

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

MONTANA PRESIDENT -
50% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama
  4% Others

[minionofmidas]

Offering Paul as an option might overstate his support, which in turn would be coming disproportionately from McCain, right?

[Kalimantan]

Offering Paul as an option might overstate his support, which in turn would be coming disproportionately from McCain, right?

They like Paul there, he'll get votes

[minionofmidas]

Offering Paul as an option might overstate his support, which in turn would be coming disproportionately from McCain, right?

They like Paul there, he'll get votes

Yeah, of course. Should be the best state of any third candidate in the Nation.
Not necessarily 4% without campaigning though.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm sorry, but until PPP proves themselves to be credible anywhere outside of NC, they can churn out as many polls as they want, it doesn't meant they are accurate. Did they even poll anywhere in 2004? Or are they just a Democratic group that was started in Raleigh this cycle?

They did prove themselves to be credible during the primary. They were one of the best pollsters.

[Nhoj]

for a second there i thought the title said MI and i thought ppp had really gone of the wagon.
however id say well this result is possible im thinking its unlikely i think mccain will win montana by a few points.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama is not going to win Montana...

nor is John McCain going to win an election in which this uber-Republican state is close. 

[tokar]

Impressive Obama polling in a state that went Bush+21 just means the margin this time around will be like McCain+5 or something.

(Comparatively, impressive Obama polling in a state that went Bush+13...meaning North Carolina...could indicate a margin like Obama+3 or so).

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm sorry, but until PPP proves themselves to be credible anywhere outside of NC, they can churn out as many polls as they want, it doesn't meant they are accurate. Did they even poll anywhere in 2004? Or are they just a Democratic group that was started in Raleigh this cycle?

They did prove themselves to be credible during the primary. They were one of the best pollsters.

Right. Obama won Pennsylvania by 2, didn't he?

They were middle of the pack, according to your boy Nate Silver's ratings. They beat out the ABC/Wash post polls and lost to Insider Advantage.

[TheresNoMoney]

Right. Obama won Pennsylvania by 2, didn't he?

That was their one bad poll, which has already been mentioned 50 times by other posters.

They were middle of the pack, according to your boy Nate Silver's ratings. They beat out the ABC/Wash post polls and lost to Insider Advantage.

They were 12th out of 32, just barely behind Mason-Dixon and Quinnipiac.

[Nutmeg]

for a second there i thought the title said MI and i thought ppp had really gone of the wagon.
however id say well this result is possible im thinking its unlikely i think mccain will win montana by a few points.

help my keyboard seems to have the same problem as yours its punctuation keys do not work how do i fix this

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Right. Obama won Pennsylvania by 2, didn't he?

That was their one bad poll, which has already been mentioned 50 times by other posters.

They were middle of the pack, according to your boy Nate Silver's ratings. They beat out the ABC/Wash post polls and lost to Insider Advantage.

They were 12th out of 32, just barely behind Mason-Dixon and Quinnipiac.

I guess it depends on your definition of "barely" then.....