PPP NC: Obama leads by ~250k in EV, but Election Day voters strongly McCain

[Alcon]

No topline yet, but I assume McCain will lead

Previous had Obama +1 (10/26)

[Eraserhead]

Makes sense. I predict that McCain will manage to carry it.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, McCain probably wins NC by 50-49-1.

[Tender Branson]

Obama clings to a 1-point lead:

Obama - 50
McCain - 49
Barr - 1

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1103173.pdf

[Eraserhead]

This is one of the states that will keep us political junkies up late, even if the winner of the Presidential election itself is clear. We gotta see what that final map is going to look like!

Anyway, I hope I'm wrong about this one.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC will stay with McCain. Early voting has been strong for Obama, but most of the Republicans will turnout on election day.

[Jacobtm]

Only 22% African American? Seems to be an underestimation to me. The age numbers also seem a bit skewed towards the older side.

[Tender Branson]

Only 22% African American? Seems to be an underestimation to me.

According to this poll, it seems Election Day voters are heavily Republican. Therefore less Blacks will vote tomorrow, pushing down the overall Black share. They made up about 26.5% of the early vote, which makes up about 60-70% of the overall vote. If only 15-20% of tomorrow's voters are Black, overall Black composition could go down to 22%.

[exopolitician]

Damn. North Carolina is probably going to be a dissapointment.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

North Carolina was only 18.5% black in 2004. It'll probably be 20% or so this election.

[Tender Branson]

Montana and Florida are next.

I´m guessing they'll show McCain up 50-48 in MT and Obama up by a similar margin in FL.

[Jacobtm]

Only 22% African American? Seems to be an underestimation to me.

According to this poll, it seems Election Day voters are heavily Republican. Therefore less Blacks will vote tomorrow, pushing down the overall Black share. They made up about 26.5% of the early vote, which makes up about 60-70% of the overall vote. If only 15-20% of tomorrow's voters are Black, overall Black composition could go down to 22%.

Yes, but African Americans are 22% of North Carolina's electorate as a whole. While their turnout on election day might bring down their total % of the vote, I just don't believe that they'll only makeup 22% of the total turnout.

If you assume the margins are about right, that African Americans are going 93% for Obama, whites about 37% for Obama, and "other" about 50% for Obama, and you apply those numbers to the share that white, black and "other" make up in NC, that gives Obama between 47 and 48%. But that's assuming that Blacks only show up in their exact proportion of the electorate...

Also, if you look at the party breakdown, the overestimates both Democrats and Republicans, not reaching enough people who don't associate with a party. In NC, voters with no party make up 22% of the electorate, up from '04, while Dems and Reps are both proportionally down from '04. I can't know for sure, but I'm guessing many of these new voters who refused to associate with either party will skew a bit towards Obama.

Add up these little things, and it spells a slight Obama victory to me.

[Gustaf]

Only 22% African American? Seems to be an underestimation to me.

According to this poll, it seems Election Day voters are heavily Republican. Therefore less Blacks will vote tomorrow, pushing down the overall Black share. They made up about 26.5% of the early vote, which makes up about 60-70% of the overall vote. If only 15-20% of tomorrow's voters are Black, overall Black composition could go down to 22%.

Yes, but African Americans are 22% of North Carolina's electorate as a whole. While their turnout on election day might bring down their total % of the vote, I just don't believe that they'll only makeup 22% of the total turnout.

If you assume the margins are about right, that African Americans are going 93% for Obama, whites about 37% for Obama, and "other" about 50% for Obama, and you apply those numbers to the share that white, black and "other" make up in NC, that gives Obama between 47 and 48%. But that's assuming that Blacks only show up in their exact proportion of the electorate...

Also, if you look at the party breakdown, the overestimates both Democrats and Republicans, not reaching enough people who don't associate with a party. In NC, voters with no party make up 22% of the electorate, up from '04, while Dems and Reps are both proportionally down from '04. I can't know for sure, but I'm guessing many of these new voters who refused to associate with either party will skew a bit towards Obama.

Add up these little things, and it spells a slight Obama victory to me.

Ordinarily black turnout is below their share of the electorate though. It isn't a given that they will be a much larger share of turnout than of electorate even with more enthusiasm.