FINAL GALLUP ESTIMATE: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

[Eraserhead]

Allocating the undecideds got them in a bit of trouble last time (brought them from a Bush+2 to a tied final poll).

[Verily]

Allocating the undecideds got them in a bit of trouble last time (brought them from a Bush+2 to a tied final poll).

In this case it takes them from Obama +11 to Obama +11, though. They're not taking risks with undecided allocation.

[Nhoj]

So, let me get this straight.

39% Democrat (91% for O)
31% Independent (48O-43M)
29% Republican (91% for M)

switching the independents and the reps numbers would seem to be closer to reality i think rasmussen has it around 39dem and 31-33% republican area.

[The Duke]

Gallup has tended to show a more pro-McCain result than other pollsters this election.  This one pol, they swing very pro-Obama.  Might it have less to do with cell phones than the possibility that by bad luck they got a sh**tty sample at for their last poll?  Gallup doesn't weight their sample (Or didn't used to weight anyway), so they are suceptible to just getting a bad sample one day.  I suspect this is the reason that this poll is this way.

I get the "Cell phones show the hidden youth vote" argument, but I suspect its garbage.  The electorate will be closer to Rasmussen's +6 Dem than to this poll's +12 Dem weight.

[Eraserhead]

Allocating the undecideds got them in a bit of trouble last time (brought them from a Bush+2 to a tied final poll).

In this case it takes them from Obama +11 to Obama +11, though. They're not taking risks with undecided allocation.

Yeah but what if undecided break better than even for McCain (which they almost certainly will)?

[Rowan]

This is trash.

[Sam Spade]

I want to check the polls today to make sure, but I fear we are rapidly heading towards pollster Armageddon.  Should be rather interesting...

[Rowan]

I want to check the polls today to make sure, but I fear we are rapidly heading towards pollster Armageddon.  Should be rather interesting...

All I know is someone will end up looking like idiots on election day.

[pepper11]

Kos (R) has 50-46 again for one day.  Something crazy bout this to have a 7 point Dem lean vs Kos (R).

[Sam Spade]

Kos (R) has 50-46 again for one day.  Something crazy bout this to have a 7 point Dem lean vs Kos (R).

Look at it this way:  If I reweight Gallup's proffered internals on party ID to somewhere around where I think the electorate will truely lie, we get (yet again) a 4-6 point race.

But maybe Gallup is right.  Who knows?

[Sbane]

Kos (R) has 50-46 again for one day.  Something crazy bout this to have a 7 point Dem lean vs Kos (R).

Look at it this way:  If I reweight Gallup's proffered internals on party ID to somewhere around where I think the electorate will truely lie, we get (yet again) a 4-6 point race.

But maybe Gallup is right.  Who knows?

What do you think it will be on election day. Something like 38d 32r 28i?

[Sam Spade]

Kos (R) has 50-46 again for one day.  Something crazy bout this to have a 7 point Dem lean vs Kos (R).

Look at it this way:  If I reweight Gallup's proffered internals on party ID to somewhere around where I think the electorate will truely lie, we get (yet again) a 4-6 point race.

But maybe Gallup is right.  Who knows?

What do you think it will be on election day. Something like 38d 32r 28i?

I am loathe to buck history on this.  Probably a +4 or +5D spread.