FINAL GALLUP ESTIMATE: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

[Lief 🗽]

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx

[Ronnie]

I would be shocked if this were reality.

But as a result, I skewed my prediction model heavily toward Obama.

[Lunar]

If McCain won it'd be possibly the biggest polling disaster in history.

[Firefly]

They're a little off.  It'll be Obama 54%, McCain 46%.

[Moooooo]

If McCain won it'd be possibly the biggest polling disaster in history.

or IBD/TIPP is glorified as the polling genius.

[cinyc]

Why is Gallup releasing this early?

[pepper11]

D 38 R 26.  This is the biggest joke in polling history.

[Alcon]

Why is Gallup releasing this early?

Self-promotion, to lead the news cycle tomorrow.

[J. J.]

I think they are off by more than a little.  None of the other tracking polls are showing anything that big.  This could be the worse Gallup since 1980.

[Lunar]

If McCain won it'd be possibly the biggest polling disaster in history.

or IBD/TIPP is glorified as the polling genius.

We already know that they aren't through self-admission: "Anatomy of a Polling Disaster"

[Wiz in Wis]

When California, Illinois, New York and most of New England are at 60% for Obama, why not expect a larger PV spread than EV's will end up?

[cinyc]

Why is Gallup releasing this early?

Self-promotion, to lead the news cycle tomorrow.

Gallup's not Zogby.  They don't need to generate headlines to get their polls in the news.  Their polls would have lead the news cycle regardless.

[Alcon]

Why is Gallup releasing this early?

Self-promotion, to lead the news cycle tomorrow.

Gallup's not Zogby.  They don't need to generate headlines to get their polls in the news.  Their polls would have lead the news cycle regardless.

I could have sworn they did this in 2004, too.  Either way, why's it matter?  Suspect something I'm missing?

[Boris]

state polling consensus conforms to a much closer race than 55-44, obviously

[cinyc]

Why is Gallup releasing this early?

Self-promotion, to lead the news cycle tomorrow.

Gallup's not Zogby.  They don't need to generate headlines to get their polls in the news.  Their polls would have lead the news cycle regardless.

I could have sworn they did this in 2004, too.  Either way, why's it matter?  Suspect something I'm missing?

It doesn't really matter.  I'm just surprised to see a final Gallup poll at night instead of 1PM, and am a little surprised they're not polling at least part of tomorrow for a real final release tomorrow night.

[Stranger in a strange land]

When California, Illinois, New York and most of New England are at 60% for Obama, why not expect a larger PV spread than EV's will end up?

because turnout in California and New York as % of VAP is horrible, due mainly to illegal immigrants, legal immigrants who lack citizenship, and Latinos who can vote but don't.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I put more faith in Rasmussen. Gallup was pretty bad in 2004, so I'll wait to see how they do this year to judge whether they got their act together or not.

[Sarnstrom]

I put more faith in Rasmussen. Gallup was pretty bad in 2004, so I'll wait to see how they do this year to judge whether they got their act together or not.

Their final poll of 2004 had Bush up 49-47%.

[Person Man]

Hmmm....an 11 point Bradley Effect? If that happens, you will see McCain and Palin assasination attempts every other week.

[J. J.]

Hmmm....an 11 point Bradley Effect? If that happens, you will see McCain and Palin assasination attempts every other week.

Or an outlier.  Even Kos isn't showing that.

[Sam Spade]

So, let me get this straight.

39% Democrat (91% for O)
31% Independent (48O-43M)
29% Republican (91% for M)

[Wiz in Wis]

Ok, here's a theory for teeth sinking.

CBS, ABC/WaPo, and Gallup all have margins around 11-13... everyone else is closer to 5

Guess which 3 polling firms include a proportional allocation of cell phone contacts?

[Sam Spade]

Ok, here's a theory for teeth sinking.

CBS, ABC/WaPo, and Gallup all have margins around 11-13... everyone else is closer to 5

Guess which 3 polling firms include a proportional allocation of cell phone contacts?

Pew also does the cell phone thing.

[Lunar]

Ok, here's a theory for teeth sinking.

CBS, ABC/WaPo, and Gallup all have margins around 11-13... everyone else is closer to 5

Guess which 3 polling firms include a proportional allocation of cell phone contacts?

Pew also does the cell phone thing.

If we'e going to steal 538's ideas, we might as well post their graph

[Verily]

Also done before the last Gallup update, in which the Expanded and Traditional models both moved to Obama +11. It's an interesting difference, anyway; we'll see if Gallup and ABC/WaPo are vindicated. (CBS/NYT is too erratic to be vindicated by anything.)