Maybe this is why McCain thinks Iowa is close...

[pepper11]

2004:

Iowa – 2004 Final Early and Absentee Vote Numbers:

Democrat:  48%

Republican: 30%

Other:  22%



2008:
   
Dem: 47%

Rep:  29%
 
Other:  24%
   

[Tim89]

Strange.
Anyway, the polls can't be that bad. McCain is desperate and he recently talks a lot of nonsense. I don't think he really believes that Iowa is a toss-up but what else should he do? He can't publicly acknowledge that he's losing there.

[Franzl]

I don't think that matters too much....I could imagine that Obama gains quite a bit of republican support in Iowa.

[J. J.]

I was surprised when Bush carried it.

I was surprised that Obama was there this week.

[Franzl]

I was surprised when Bush carried it.

I was surprised that Obama was there this week.

We're talking about a state here that just barely went to Bush in an election he won nationally....

Not to mention all the other positive arguments for OBama, and negative for McCain in this state.

[J. J.]

I was surprised when Bush carried it.

I was surprised that Obama was there this week.

We're talking about a state here that just barely went to Bush in an election he won nationally....

Not to mention all the other positive arguments for OBama, and negative for McCain in this state.

It still doesn't change my surprise.  I have IA going to Obama and it wasn't a tossup or close, so, for once, I'm stumped.

[TheGlobalizer]

Honestly, I think it's just a bunch of CYA at this point.  There's only so much you can do in PA, VA, and OH.

[afleitch]

I was surprised when Bush carried it.

I was surprised that Obama was there this week.

We're talking about a state here that just barely went to Bush in an election he won nationally....

Not to mention all the other positive arguments for OBama, and negative for McCain in this state.

It still doesn't change my surprise.  I have IA going to Obama and it wasn't a tossup or close, so, for once, I'm stumped.

It was probably symbolic - his first primary win.

[J. J.]

I was surprised when Bush carried it.

I was surprised that Obama was there this week.

We're talking about a state here that just barely went to Bush in an election he won nationally....

Not to mention all the other positive arguments for OBama, and negative for McCain in this state.

It still doesn't change my surprise.  I have IA going to Obama and it wasn't a tossup or close, so, for once, I'm stumped.

It was probably symbolic - his first primary win.

Wrong on both counts.  It was a caucus and it wouldn't be symbolic.  Having it there on election day might be.

[Torie]

It might be tough to get those down market Anglo meat packing workers (the Hispanic one's are "all" illegal) to vote early.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Meh. Bush beat Kerry in the ground game in 2004. McCain doesn't have that same advantage.

[Nym90]

How big is the early voter turnout this year compared to 2004? If it's much higher overall this year, then having the party breakdowns be even to 2004 may actually be a very good thing for Democrats.

[pepper11]

Early voting is almost identical absolute numbers. So if turnout is higher, it will be a lower percentage.  That being said, I still think Obama will win by 3-4, but I find it interesting he isn't up by more than Bush at this point in party ID.

[Nym90]

Early voting is almost identical absolute numbers. So if turnout is higher, it will be a lower percentage.  That being said, I still think Obama will win by 3-4, but I find it interesting he isn't up by more than Bush at this point in party ID.

Obama only winning Iowa by 3 or 4 would be extremely good news for McCain. With the exception of one single uni poll in September at the height of McCain's post convention bounce, not a single poll taken in the state at any time in the last 4 months by any pollster has had the state that close.