PA-PPP: "Obama has nothing to worry about there"

[Tender Branson]

Chill Out

"We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.

And I know some will say, 'yeah but you screwed up the primary there.' But the mistake we made was not anything specific to Pennsylvania, we fixed it by the next set of primaries and we were number one on the Survey USA report cards for every primary we polled after it- Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon."

On Montana:

"On the first round of calls for our Montana poll something happened I've never seen before: the candidates were literally dead even on the raw counts.

In most states that would mean the Democrat is well ahead, because we usually have to weight our samples to bring up the black population. But I don't think that's an issue in Montana!

So basically that means the leader, at least based on this first round of calls, would hinge on what's bigger: the gender gap between the candidates or the age gap. We almost always have to weight our polls to make them more male: women are just more likely to answer the phone. That weighting benefits Republicans. But we usually also have to adjust our samples to make them younger, bringing up the 30 and under crowd and decreasing the share of senior citizens. That helps Democrats.

We'll be making callbacks throughout the weekend but the bottom line is that the state is really close."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com

[Eraserhead]

Okay, they have certainly earned a (D) next to their name. lol.

[Person Man]

It would be funny as hell if Obama took Montana and Arizona. It's not gonna happen, well it is as likely as MC getting PA....but I digress... I wonder how Republicans would react to this at 1 in the morning...

The only thing to come out of the west are steers and queers, apparently.

[minionofmidas]

It would be funny as hell if Obama took Montana and Arizona. It's not gonna happen, well it is as likely as MC getting PA....but I digress... I wonder how Republicans would react to this at 1 in the morning...

The only thing to come out of the west are steers and queers, apparently.

...and this election doesn't look steer to me. That narrows it down a bit.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, why so few polls today ?

[GMantis]

"We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.

Now I'm really worried.

[cinyc]

Hmm, why so few polls today ?

It's Saturday, and everyone is making a push to release final polls tomorrow or Monday?

Plus, Halloween is a screwy day to poll.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

PPP is certain trying to convince us that they aren't a fair pollster.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

"We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.

Now I'm really worried.

lol

[Tender Branson]

Tom Jensen, Communications Director for Public Policy Polling:

"To review we will have polls in North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Virginia in the next 24 hours and we'll start rolling them out late tonight and then on through the night.

We're probably going to call it quits around 4 AM this time so anything not done by then will come out later in the morning but we'll try to get the ones people seem most apprehensive about like Pennsylvania and Virginia done earlier in the night.

When we started running these polls Friday morning I was virtually certain Barack Obama would be elected President. I still am."

[Rococo4]

i wonder if this Tom Jensen has sent his resume to the Obama Transistion team for a role in the press department

[Moooooo]

Are these guys independent leaning D pollsters or full blown D internal pollsters?

[Lief 🗽]

They're independent pollsters who are also Democrats.

[Rowan]

They're independent pollsters who are also Democrats.

That are openly rooting for Obama and would never let their bias influence their polling. Ever.

[War on Want]

They're independent pollsters who are also Democrats.

[Lief 🗽]

They're independent pollsters who are also Democrats.

That are openly rooting for Obama and would never let their bias influence their polling. Ever.

Whatever let's you sleep at night man.

[Moooooo]

Decent track record?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Decent track record?

Check out Wisconsin in the primary.

[Verily]

Decent track record?

Honestly, they excelled everywhere except Pennsylvania in the primaries, for what it's worth. They claim to have made a methodological error in the Pennsylvania primary which was fixed for later primaries (and indeed they were the best pollster for all remaining primaries), although they haven't said what that error was.

[J. J.]

Decent track record?

Honestly, they excelled everywhere except Pennsylvania in the primaries, for what it's worth. They claim to have made a methodological error in the Pennsylvania primary which was fixed for later primaries (and indeed they were the best pollster for all remaining primaries), although they haven't said what that error was.

I do worry a pollster who says that a candidate has nothing to worry about, without looking at results.

[Lunar]

They don't look at results?

[J. J.]

They don't look at results?

From the first post:

"We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.

And I know some will say, 'yeah but you screwed up the primary there.' But the mistake we made was not anything specific to Pennsylvania, we fixed it by the next set of primaries and we were number one on the Survey USA report cards for every primary we polled after it- Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon."

[Lunar]

I don't get what you mean.  They're looking at their own results from their thousands of interviews in Pennsylvania recently.

[Verily]

I don't get what you mean.  They're looking at their own results from their thousands of interviews in Pennsylvania recently.

They haven;t weighted them yet, or at least hadn't at the time that statement was made. But it's really quite stupid of J. J. to think that a pollster wouldn't know what to make of unweighted numbers before applying their own weights to them.

[Person Man]

Dude, you're talking to JJ, who has a reputation of talking out of his ass of late, God bless his heart.