Mugabe admirer wins Zambian election

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Ugh. sh**t.

[Hash]

Revised. There is still some hope. 137/159 constituencies have reported, and the MMD is narrowing the gap with Satan.

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Banda (MMD) is now leading Satan (PF) 39.95-38.46

148/159 reporting at 20:00

http://www.elections.org.zm/index2.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_view&gid=104&Itemid=78

[minionofmidas]

This looks like a stolen election.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Come on, you can do it, Banda!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Come on Banda, win this!  Anything to keep a Mugabe supporter out of power.

[ottermax]

Is Zambia FPTP? I assume so. Also, does Zambia have a history of voter fraud? I thought it was a fairly free democracy (for African standards).

[Hash]

Is Zambia FPTP? I assume so. Also, does Zambia have a history of voter fraud? I thought it was a fairly free democracy (for African standards).

FPTP, with no runoffs.

[Hash]

150/159

Banda 40.09
Satan 38.13

[Хahar 🤔]

Who's doing the rigging here?

[Hash]

Who's doing the rigging here?

Reminds me of New Mexico somehow.

[Hash]

Banda has won, Satan's supporters have started rioting etc.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Hooray!

[minionofmidas]

will now check if there is sufficient regional polarization to allow for an explanation not consisting of gov't rigging, and also compare with 2006 results...

[Hash]

will now check if there is sufficient regional polarization to allow for an explanation not consisting of gov't rigging, and also compare with 2006 results...

Only the PF is talking of rigging. Observers and parallel counts are seeing no rigging.

[minionofmidas]

will now check if there is sufficient regional polarization to allow for an explanation not consisting of gov't rigging, and also compare with 2006 results...

Only the PF is talking of rigging. Observers and parallel counts are seeing no rigging.

Regional polarization is certainly high enough for (depending on order of counting) such a stunning reversal to be entirely plausible.

Turnout seems down by suspicious amounts though...

[minionofmidas]

Yah, I see no evidence of wrongdoing either. Strongholds matching well with 2006 etc.

Horribly malapportioned constituencies though.

[minionofmidas]

Results by Province, 2006 and 2008!


National:
2006
Levy Mwanawasa (i) 43.0%
Michael Sata 29.4%
Hakainde Hichilema 25.3%
two more candidates 2.3%

2008
Rupiah Banda (acting i after Mwanawasa's death) 40.1%
Sata 38.1%
Hichilema 19.7%
stronger one of the 2006 also rans 1.1%



From here on showing raw votes:

Northwestern
2006
Mwanawasa 121k votes, 12-0-0 (this is ranks by constituencies)
Hichilema 45k votes, 0-12-0
Sata 3400 votes, 0-0-4-6-2 (he did come third though, thanks to an outcrop of support in I think the largest town)

2008
Banda 59k votes, 10-2-0
Hichilema 38k votes, 2-10-0
Sata 4600 votes, 0-0-11-1

Western
2006
Mwanawasa 161k votes, 17-0-0
Hichilema 26k votes, 0-14-3
Sata 14k votes, 0-3-14

2008
Banda 82k votes, 17-0-0
Hichilema 25k votes, 0-15-2
Sata 13k votes, 0-2-15

Southern
2006
Hichilema 279k votes, 19-0-0
Mwanawasa 76k votes, 0-19-0
Sata 13k votes, 0-0-7-10-2 (he did come third though, same as northwestern)

2008
Hichilema 181k votes, 18-1-0
Banda 52k votes, 1-18-0
Sata 12k votes, 0-0-12-7

Copperbelt
2006
Sata 222k votes, 18-3-1
Mwanawasa 170k votes, 4-18-0
Hichilema 33k votes, 0-1-21

2008
Sata 201k votes, 18-4-0
Banda 105k votes, 4-18-0
Hichilema 18k votes, 0-0-22 (government support in same areas in 2006 and 2008)

Central
2006
Mwanawasa 158k votes, 11-3-0
Hichilema 63k votes, 2-7-5
Sata 38k votes, 1-4-9

2008
Banda 79k votes, 11-3-0
Sata 38k votes, 2-5-7
Hichilema 32k votes, 1-6-7 (Banda takes over one constituency from Hichilema, loses one to Sata)

Lusaka
2006
Sata 206k votes, 7-0-5
Mwanawasa 116k votes, 4-5-3
Hichilema 90k votes, 1-7-4 (crass urban-rural split. Sata wins all Lusaka Council (lower administrative unit) constituencies, comes third everywhere else. Mwanawasa's third places in very oversized city constituencies, but he wasn't without support there.)

2008
Sata 162k votes, 8-4-0 (so he gained one of the rural constituencies, from Mwanawasa)
Banda 90k votes, 4-8-0
Hichilema 44k votes, 0-0-12

Eastern
2006
Mwanawasa 148k votes, 12-7-0
Hichilema 130k votes, 7-12-0
Sata 36k votes, 0-0-19

2008
Banda 148k votes, 19-0-0
Sata 37k votes, 0-15-4
Hichilema 12k votes, 0-4-15 (Now that's what I call a "collapse". Banda's constituency in the last parliament is here - he was actually born in Zimbabwe though, while his parents came from Zambia.)

Northern
2006
Mwanawasa 164k votes, 11-10-0
Sata 140k votes, 10-9-2
Hichilema 18k votes, 0-2-18-1

2008
Sata 134k votes, 15-6-0
Banda 67k votes, 6-15-0
Hichilema 2700 votes, 0-0-21

Luapula
2006
Sata 119k votes, 13-1-0
Mwanawasa 65k votes, 1-13-0
Hichilema 8200 votes, 0-0-14

2008
Sata 82k votes, 13-1-0
Banda 33k votes, 1-13-0 (same place as 2006)
Hichilema 1600 votes, 0-0-14

[Hash]

will now check if there is sufficient regional polarization to allow for an explanation not consisting of gov't rigging, and also compare with 2006 results...

Only the PF is talking of rigging. Observers and parallel counts are seeing no rigging.

Regional polarization is certainly high enough for (depending on order of counting) such a stunning reversal to be entirely plausible.

Turnout seems down by suspicious amounts though...

The heavily PF urban constituencies reported first, and the solidly MMD rural constituencies reported later.

[minionofmidas]

will now check if there is sufficient regional polarization to allow for an explanation not consisting of gov't rigging, and also compare with 2006 results...

Only the PF is talking of rigging. Observers and parallel counts are seeing no rigging.

Regional polarization is certainly high enough for (depending on order of counting) such a stunning reversal to be entirely plausible.

Turnout seems down by suspicious amounts though...

The heavily PF urban constituencies reported first, and the solidly MMD rural constituencies reported later.

Probably, yeah.

Still trying to figure out why people voted in droves when Mwanawasa's reelection was fairly assured, but didn't when the presidency was up in the air.

[Hash]

will now check if there is sufficient regional polarization to allow for an explanation not consisting of gov't rigging, and also compare with 2006 results...

Only the PF is talking of rigging. Observers and parallel counts are seeing no rigging.

Regional polarization is certainly high enough for (depending on order of counting) such a stunning reversal to be entirely plausible.

Turnout seems down by suspicious amounts though...

The heavily PF urban constituencies reported first, and the solidly MMD rural constituencies reported later.

Probably, yeah.

Still trying to figure out why people voted in droves when Mwanawasa's reelection was fairly assured, but didn't when the presidency was up in the air.

Registration issues is mentioned as a big cause for the awful turnout this year.