Can Someone Talk Me Through Arizona

[Lunar]

Ramussen +5
R2K +1
Crap Uni Polls ~+2
ARG crap poll +4

My unsubstantiated theory on R2k is that they represent Obama's...potential, what would happen if youth and AA turnout hit what Obama would like them to hit.  So anytime R2k shows McCain ahead by any margin is good news for McCain.

But that Rasmussen poll is a surprise and the other ones show it clearly not an outlier in favor of Obama.

What's going on.  Arizona is the fastest growing state in the country, but Obama has no registration organization here to encourage these new migrants to vote.  I'm sure CARL would like to believe that millions of Arizonan Republicans like him are staying home or voting Barr, but I find that difficult to swallow.  A lot of Arizona's white migration (I assume) is of the elderly sort too (more likely to vote, but less likely to be part of Obama's cult).

I can rationalize everything else in this election: almost 20 point swings in NC, IN, MT, ND, etc. 

I remember McCain's campaign talking a month or two back about how they'd need to defend Arizona a bit, but I just threw it out as mere defensive speculation at a time when they were quite competitive nationally.

The only explanation I can find is McCain's awful Hispanic margin, relative to his own senatorial campaigns and Bush '04.  But that doesn't explain the current ~5 margin, does it?  McCain's campaign is apparently running an aggressive robocall campaign and Obama's campaign and MoveOn have both started up [probably] minor buys there to capitalize on the fact that the press doesn't understand the difference between ASU and Mason-Dixon polling -- but whatever.  McCain's robocalls might be excusable in the context of the fact that they're cheap and everywhere (including Washington State), but he has personalized them specifically for AZ, I'm unsure.

I don't think McCain is anywhere near losing the state, but the current numbers are not where logic would depict them to be. Can someone break down the demographics of AZ undecided and soft voters for me to explain why McCain isn't in high single digits here?

Someone talk me through this, step by step.

[MR maverick]

Ramussen +5
R2K +1
Crap Uni Polls ~+2
ARG crap poll +4

My unsubstantiated theory on R2k is that they represent Obama's...potential, what would happen if youth and AA turnout hit what Obama would like them to hit.  So anytime R2k shows McCain ahead by any margin is good news for McCain.

But that Rasmussen poll is a surprise and the other ones show it clearly not an outlier in favor of Obama.

What's going on.  Arizona is the fastest growing state in the country, but Obama has no registration organization here to encourage these new migrants to vote.  I'm sure CARL would like to believe that millions of Arizonan Republicans like him are staying home or voting Barr, but I find that difficult to swallow.  A lot of Arizona's white migration (I assume) is of the elderly sort too (more likely to vote, but less likely to be part of Obama's cult).

I can rationalize everything else in this election: almost 20 point swings in NC, IN, MT, ND, etc. 

I remember McCain's campaign talking a month or two back about how they'd need to defend Arizona a bit, but I just threw it out as mere defensive speculation at a time when they were quite competitive nationally.

The only explanation I can find is McCain's awful Hispanic margin, relative to his own senatorial campaigns and Bush '04.  But that doesn't explain the current ~5 margin, does it?

Someone talk me through this, step by step.

1.The far right talk radio is hurting McCain with Latinos and McCain isn't defending this voting block because he trying to appease the base.

2. If Obama is going to carry NV and NM theres no reason he shouldn't  be winning AZ.

3. No campaigning by McCain

4. The filp flop on immigration bill last year.

[Lunar]

1&4 = Latinos, yeah, but that's at most half the picture.  Angry conservatives over his past immigration positions would have shown themselves MORE during his initial run for presidency more than now, when he has shifted to the right somewhat.
3 - No campaigning by Obama either.
2 - Doesn't make sense

[MR maverick]

1&4 = Latinos, yeah, but that's at most half the picture.  Angry conservatives over his past immigration positions would have shown themselves MORE during his initial run for presidency more than now, when he has shifted to the right somewhat.
3 - No campaigning by Obama either.
2 - Doesn't make sense

Look in 4 years I could see AZ being Dem, after all the  gov is a DEM.  Remember the rumors about her being on the ticket? 

I mean if you win NV and CO, CA why wouldn't you carry AZ?

The Southwest is trending blue because the republican party has let the Sean Hannitys , Glen Becks of world Ruin their party with the right wing nonsense.  It works in the south, but the gop better get their act together because the south is about the only thing they will be winning.

[The Ex-Factor]

Remember that John McCain has never been too popular with the Republican party in Arizona, and the lack of a home state effect isn't too surprising.

Like MR politics said, if the nominee had been anyone else the state would definitely be in play for the Democrats right now. Thing is like you said Obama hasn't mobilized anything in the state so far so for it to suddenly be so close this late is mystifying. I suppose it's kind of like Nevada - the population is growing so quickly that it makes hard to pin down recent demographic trends.

[MR maverick]

Obama was being a nice guy and not contesting this state until now.

Serousely if you carry the surrounding southwest states why wouldn't you carry AZ?

Had Obama campaigned in this state it would have been a toss up for most of the fall.  You had to see this coming once he locked up CO and NM.

The Latin vote is killing McCain though.  I didn't know they would go with obama after all the talk during the primaries.  The anti America thing iam guessing offends this voting block?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Look at the exit poll from McCain's reelection - and it might show you why he's in a bit of trouble.

[cannonia]

Arizona also had a huge housing bubble.

[minionofmidas]

It's sort of a western cousin of Florida's ... same massive growth, same potential for that growth to come to an end rather rapidly. Similar partisan dynamics, in some senses though not at all in others. McCain wouldn't be ahead here if he wasn't based here, he'd be trailing by within the MoE.

[Lunar]

Still don't get why McCain isn't closer to 8% ahead

[CARLHAYDEN]

Ah, poor Lunar, making things up again.

First, he alleges that "Arizona is the fastest growing state in the country."  The truth is that Nevada holds that distinction.

Second, Lunar further alleges that "CARL would like to believe that millions of Arizona Republicans are staying home or voting for Barr."

I have to hand it to Lunar, he manages to make more misstatements in one sentence than BRTD!  But then, he's gone further out into the fever swamps.

a.) I am a conservative Democrat, not a Republican.

b.) While Lunar may believe that he can engage in "mind reading," as to what I "would like to believe," I would suggest he drop the lying and delusions at stick with the facts.  But then, that would cut down on his posts.

c) I don't know where Lunar gets the "millions" from, but I would suggest that Barr will probably get about 100,000 votes in Arizona (not "millions"). 

d.) I have never alledged that conservative Arizona voters (Republican or otherwise) "are staying home" (just another Lunar delusion).

Third, Lunar cannot conceive of voters who are angry with McCain for:

(a) supporting stifling free speech (at least of conservatives) which McCain supports (he calls it "campaign finance reform"),

(b) supporting amnesty for illegal aliens (he calls it "a path to citizenship"), and

(c) his support for bailouts for the rich (he supports even more of these than Obama).

I guess its because Lunar favors silencing conservatives, supports amnesty for illegal aliens and supports socialism for the rich.

In summation, there is far more in Arizona than Lunar can comprehend.

 

[WalterMitty]

arizona is the new ne-02.

apparently he is in the driver's seat in both areas.

[minionofmidas]

Still don't get why McCain isn't closer to 8% ahead

What's by 5 or by 8 to you? Does it matter?

[NOVA Green]

Two things that might be slightly reducing McCain's support here that haven't been mentioned:

1.) The housing crisis has impacted Arizona much more than many other states. This might be having a modest impact on his level of support.

2.) McCain's support for the "bailout". This was extremely unpopular amongst Arizona Republicans, and since the party base in this state is much more fiscally conservative than in some places this may be causing state Republicans and fiscally conservative independents to sit out the election.

I am not claiming that these are the only issues here, but it might well have produced a several point drag on the McCain ticket here.

[minionofmidas]

Two things that might be slightly reducing McCain's support here that haven't been mentioned:

1.) The housing crisis has impacted Arizona much more than many other states. This might be having a modest impact on his level of support.

Cannonia mentioned it. I alluded to it. [/stickler]

[NOVA Green]

Two things that might be slightly reducing McCain's support here that haven't been mentioned:

1.) The housing crisis has impacted Arizona much more than many other states. This might be having a modest impact on his level of support.

Cannonia mentioned it. I alluded to it. [/stickler]

My bad... I should have read through the thread a little more thoroughly.

[Brittain33]

Ah, poor Lunar, making things up again.

First, he alleges that "Arizona is the fastest growing state in the country."  The truth is that Nevada holds that distinction.

It did last year. The year before, it was Arizona. Before that, it was Nevada for 16 years. Regardless, this is a distinction without a difference. Both states have a very high share of the population that moved there from somewhere else and don't have any attachment to incumbents or local historic voting patterns.

[Lunar]

Is it just me, or is CARL's obsession with me getting a little MODU-style creepy (he stalked every post MODU ever made once)?  I cited him just as a conservative McCain-hater but he seems more than a little creepy lately.

[Meeker]

Is it just me, or is CARL's obsession with me getting a little MODU-style creepy (he stalked every post MODU ever made once)?  II cited him just as a conservative McCain-hater but he seems more than a little creepy lately.

He does this occasionally with people (Alcon a few months ago). It's certainly creepy, but it's nothing to worry about.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is it just me, or is CARL's obsession with me getting a little MODU-style creepy (he stalked every post MODU ever made once)?  II cited him just as a conservative McCain-hater but he seems more than a little creepy lately.

Facts mean nothing to Lunar and his ilk.

All he can engage in is name calling.

[Alcon]

Is it just me, or is CARL's obsession with me getting a little MODU-style creepy (he stalked every post MODU ever made once)?  II cited him just as a conservative McCain-hater but he seems more than a little creepy lately.

Facts mean nothing to Lunar and his ilk.

All he can engage in is name calling.

Speaking of facts, Census estimates have had Arizona outpacing Nevada in population growth for several years (source).  Between 2004 and 2006, Arizona growth was estimated to outmode Nevada growth by 5%.

Although it's worth noting that, since 2006, Utah has overtaken both.  Since 2004, it has grown an estimated 9% faster than Nevada, and 4% faster than Arizona.

[WillK]

Arizona ... Obama has no registration organization..

Someone talk me through this, step by step.

Well , for starters I think your basic assumption (above) about the Obama campaign effort in Arizona is wrong.  There was press coverage when the Obama campaign opened its Arizona office back in September. 

In addition, I think there is some McCain fatigue in Arizona.

[Lunar]

Arizona ... Obama has no registration organization..

Someone talk me through this, step by step.

Well , for starters I think your basic assumption (above) about the Obama campaign effort in Arizona is wrong.  There was press coverage when the Obama campaign opened its Arizona office back in September. 

In addition, I think there is some McCain fatigue in Arizona.

Really?  I would assume that Obama's efforts in Arizona would be similar to their ones in Arkansas (where they also have offices): to ship volunteers to more important states.

[WillK]

Arizona ... Obama has no registration organization..

Someone talk me through this, step by step.

Well , for starters I think your basic assumption (above) about the Obama campaign effort in Arizona is wrong.  There was press coverage when the Obama campaign opened its Arizona office back in September. 

In addition, I think there is some McCain fatigue in Arizona.

Really?  I would assume that Obama's efforts in Arizona would be similar to their ones in Arkansas (where they also have offices): to ship volunteers to more important states.

Nope.  The office was opened to create a ground game in Arizona. According to news reports, the Obama office buzzes with activity.   Meanwhile, the local McCain offices in Arizona are empty. 

Plus, in recent years the migration to Arizona from other states has had brought in more new Democratic voters than Republican voters.

[WillK]

Here, read this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dawn-teo/a-tale-of-two-campaigns-i_b_137722.html