PA: Strategic Vision: Obama's lead down to 5

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Strategic Vision on 2008-10-30

Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, I: 2%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

I find it hard to believe that there is a 10-point difference between MI and PA ...

Maybe PA is tightening a bit, I will certainly let the polls of Rasmussen, M-D and SV flow into my final predictions. Currently I'd say Obama wins 53-46 or 54-45. Waiting for today's Muhlenberg tracking.

[J. J.]

Mulhenburg's garbage.  PA will be close, but will be Obama.

[Eraserhead]

Note the source. Se(R)iously.

[Lunar]

This is about right considering SV probably is a point or two too (R).  Although SV does tend (IMHO) to get closer to reality closer to election day.  It's actually great PR for conservatives, haha.  They have a solid track record, but before October their polls are all strong GOP-favored outliers.  I don't know how one makes a model do that, or if I'm batshit insane, but that's kind of my view of SV.

I don't think PA being +3-4 over Obama's national total is particularly bad at all.  I never bought the double-digit leads a couple weeks ago.  PA will be in single digits.  It's John McCain's last hope (I think he's lost CO already and you can quote me on that), and he's going to pour his heart and soul into the state (while maintaining the rest of his net).

[Boris]

Obama has plans to visit PA over the weekend, right?

[Tender Branson]

Obama has plans to visit PA over the weekend, right?

No:

"His aides say they think the electoral battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, Wisconsin and New Mexico are trending toward Mr. Obama, though advisers do not rule out a last-minute visit to any place that suddenly looks troublesome. Instead, he will focus his attention on six states that President Bush won four years ago.

After a late-night rally on Friday evening in Indiana, Mr. Obama heads Saturday to Henderson, Nev.; Pueblo, Colo.; and Springfield, Mo. He is scheduled to make a three-city fly-around on Sunday. And on Monday, he is set to dash through Florida, North Carolina and back here to Virginia."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/us/politics/31obama.html

McCain will campaign Saturday in Bucks County, PA and Sunday in Scranton, Pa.

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/

[Eraserhead]

The double digit polls are still coming out, Lunar.

[Lunar]

The double digit polls are still coming out, Lunar.

Well, they're gay [No On Prop 8], it's not double-digits and good pollsters aren't getting that.  McCain wouldn't be betting the house on a double digit lead.  It's obviously 5-7 or so.