PA-Mason Dixon: Good news for J.J. & Co.

[opebo]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

[J. J.]

What counties in PA would you see as Bellweathers?

I think Bucks would be a pretty good one, though I personally suspect it tilt towards Obama (just a matter of how strongly).

Honestly, the margin in Phila.  80%+ for Obama is a win, 75-80% is tight, <75% is McCain.  Montco is another one.  I'd be paying attention to Westmoreland; McCain's margin is important.

[Vsanto5]

With all the national polls in agreement that this is a 6-7 pt race, I'm supposed to believe that Pennsylvania is more Republican than the nat'l average all of the sudden?

No, M-D has been pretty suspect this year. 

It isn't a 6-7 pt race. Rasmussen has it at a 3 pt race, Gallup has it 2-4 pts...TIPP has it at 3 pts...I think it probably is a 2-4 pt race.

TIPP is a joke poll. Gallup has it at 5pts today so does Rassy.

[Ronnie]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

It's not like McCain is ahead in this poll.

[opebo]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

It's not like McCain is ahead in this poll.

He is if you adjust for the Bradley Effect.. or if you take into account the trend (we're several days away from the actual election).

[Ronnie]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

It's not like McCain is ahead in this poll.

He is if you adjust for the Bradley Effect.. or if you take into account the trend (we're several days away from the actual election).

Opebo, the Bradley effect isn't proven to exist.  Obama has a pretty solid base, and there would have to be a large, inexplicable backlash for Obama to lose.

That said, undecideds will probably break something like 56-44 for McCain, but it isn't enough to carry the state.

[opebo]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

It's not like McCain is ahead in this poll.

He is if you adjust for the Bradley Effect.. or if you take into account the trend (we're several days away from the actual election).

Opebo, the Bradley effect isn't proven to exist.  Obama has a pretty solid base, and there would have to be a large, inexplicable backlash for Obama to lose.

That said, undecideds will probably break something like 56-44 for McCain, but it isn't enough to carry the state.

Oh please, 56/44? More like 70/30, at least.  And the large backlash is very explicable - Obama is a black, you see.

[TheGlobalizer]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

At first, this was annoying.

But now, every time I see an opebo post, I start to smile.

[Ronnie]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

It's not like McCain is ahead in this poll.

He is if you adjust for the Bradley Effect.. or if you take into account the trend (we're several days away from the actual election).

Opebo, the Bradley effect isn't proven to exist.  Obama has a pretty solid base, and there would have to be a large, inexplicable backlash for Obama to lose.

That said, undecideds will probably break something like 56-44 for McCain, but it isn't enough to carry the state.

Oh please, 56/44? More like 70/30, at least.  And the large backlash is very explicable - Obama is a black, you see.

Don't forget, many of the undecided are blacks.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, often times the simplest explanation is the correct one.

Instead of presuming 1/20, conspiracy or what have you, the difference between M-D and these other polls (Rasmussen, SUSA, other crap polls to have appeared) is that M-D is simply not pushing the soft leaners.

It's also a good answer at the national poll level too.

[Franzl]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

It's not like McCain is ahead in this poll.

He is if you adjust for the Bradley Effect.. or if you take into account the trend (we're several days away from the actual election).

Opebo, the Bradley effect isn't proven to exist.  Obama has a pretty solid base, and there would have to be a large, inexplicable backlash for Obama to lose.

That said, undecideds will probably break something like 56-44 for McCain, but it isn't enough to carry the state.

Oh please, 56/44? More like 70/30, at least.  And the large backlash is very explicable - Obama is a black, you see.

Don't forget, many of the undecided are blacks.

where on Earth did you get that idea?

[opebo]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

At first, this was annoying.

But now, every time I see an opebo post, I start to smile.

I certainly hate to bring joy to the repulsive but I will stick to my pessimistic appraisal.

[Alcon]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

It's not like McCain is ahead in this poll.

He is if you adjust for the Bradley Effect.. or if you take into account the trend (we're several days away from the actual election).

Opebo, the Bradley effect isn't proven to exist.  Obama has a pretty solid base, and there would have to be a large, inexplicable backlash for Obama to lose.

That said, undecideds will probably break something like 56-44 for McCain, but it isn't enough to carry the state.

Oh please, 56/44? More like 70/30, at least.  And the large backlash is very explicable - Obama is a black, you see.

Don't forget, many of the undecided are blacks.

where on Earth did you get that idea?

I'm not sure I'd say "many," but some are, certainly.  As of Tuesday, across Gallup, R2K, Rasmussen, Battleground, The Economist, Pew and Zogby, whites were 7.2% undecided, blacks were 5.4% undecided, and Hispanics were 7.4% undecided.

In other words, the undecided electorate is about 79% white, 11% latino, 10% black.

[MR maverick]

Alas this poll indicates we will have Pennsylvania to thank for president McCain.

It's not like McCain is ahead in this poll.

He is if you adjust for the Bradley Effect.. or if you take into account the trend (we're several days away from the actual election).

Opebo, the Bradley effect isn't proven to exist.  Obama has a pretty solid base, and there would have to be a large, inexplicable backlash for Obama to lose.

That said, undecideds will probably break something like 56-44 for McCain, but it isn't enough to carry the state.

Oh please, 56/44? More like 70/30, at least.  And the large backlash is very explicable - Obama is a black, you see.

Don't forget, many of the undecided are blacks.

where on Earth did you get that idea?

I'm not sure I'd say "many," but some are, certainly.  As of Tuesday, across Gallup, R2K, Rasmussen, Battleground, The Economist, Pew and Zogby, whites were 7.2% undecided, blacks were 5.4% undecided, and Hispanics were 7.4% undecided.

In other words, the undecided electorate is about 79% white, 11% latino, 10% black.

This elections puts whites on the spot all that "I would vote for black candidate other then jessie or Al sharpton" nonsese will be really tested.

McCain has lost the campaign on merits.

Side note.. Remember Obama thought he was closing in on Hillary during that PA primary.

[opebo]

In other words, the undecided electorate is about 79% white, 11% latino, 10% black.

Ok, so undecideds will break about 8 to 2 for McCain.

[Ronnie]

In other words, the undecided electorate is about 79% white, 11% latino, 10% black.

Ok, so undecideds will break about 8 to 2 for McCain.

You think that undecided whites will break 100% for McCain?  What kind of unproven demagoguery are you spewing?

[kevinatcausa]

Under the assumptions suggested by Nate Silver on 538 (undecided whites split 2:1 for McCain, blacks split 9:1 for Obama, latinos split 3:2 for Obama, meaning that each group breaks slightly more for McCain than they have so far) the polling numbers give an nationwide undecided split of 58-42 in favor of McCain. 

However, this doesn't say much for state by state polls, and sample sizes for each of those are so small that its hard to break down the undecided voters in any individual state by race (this may be doable by aggregating a lot of state polls for, say, Pennsylvania, but I'd still be worried about the wide differences between pollster's definition of "undecided"). 

[TheGlobalizer]

In other words, the undecided electorate is about 79% white, 11% latino, 10% black.

Ok, so undecideds will break about 8 to 2 for McCain.

LOL.

Classic.

[TheGlobalizer]

Under the assumptions suggested by Nate Silver on 538 (undecided whites split 2:1 for McCain, blacks split 9:1 for Obama, latinos split 3:2 for Obama, meaning that each group breaks slightly more for McCain than they have so far) the polling numbers give an nationwide undecided split of 58-42 in favor of McCain. 

This is a good example of why I think 538 = garbage.

Excessive fixation on numbers over realities.

[MR maverick]

In other words, the undecided electorate is about 79% white, 11% latino, 10% black.

Ok, so undecideds will break about 8 to 2 for McCain.

You think that undecided whites will break 100% for McCain?  What kind of unproven demagoguery are you spewing?

If they are that racist and partisan why wait untill election day?  Seems like thay would already be on the McCain wagon.

[Brittain33]

Why are people arguing with opebo?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Opebo is my favorite poster on this forum.

[ucscgaldamez]

opebo is too pessimistic...

[Lunar]

When MD polled in September, they had Obama up 2%.

So is Obama expanding his lead?

[Nym90]

It's not over....Obama only up four.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48619.0

Before everyone castrates me, yes, of course Mason-Dixon is a far more reputable firm than that one.