PA-Mason Dixon: Good news for J.J. & Co.

[Tender Branson]

Obama - 47
McCain - 43

Dates conducted: Oct. 27-28. Error margin: 4 points.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/30/pennsylvania-hope-for-mccain/

[Brittain33]

10% undecided on Oct. 30? Unwillingness to push leaners may make M-D good in September, but Is that reasonable at this date?

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't worry much:

M-D has shown MI tied and a few days later McCain pulled out of the state. I'm a bit suspicious of them this year ...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

With all the national polls in agreement that this is a 6-7 pt race, I'm supposed to believe that Pennsylvania is more Republican than the nat'l average all of the sudden?

No, M-D has been pretty suspect this year. 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Obama - 47
McCain - 43

Dates conducted: Oct. 27-28. Error margin: 4 points.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/30/pennsylvania-hope-for-mccain/

a bridge too far

[Reaganfan]

With all the national polls in agreement that this is a 6-7 pt race, I'm supposed to believe that Pennsylvania is more Republican than the nat'l average all of the sudden?

No, M-D has been pretty suspect this year. 

It isn't a 6-7 pt race. Rasmussen has it at a 3 pt race, Gallup has it 2-4 pts...TIPP has it at 3 pts...I think it probably is a 2-4 pt race.

[afleitch]

I wouldn't worry much:

M-D has shown MI tied and a few days later McCain pulled out of the state. I'm a bit suspicious of them this year ...

Did they not show McCain up in New Mexico too?

[Reaganfan]

I wouldn't worry much:

M-D has shown MI tied and a few days later McCain pulled out of the state. I'm a bit suspicious of them this year ...

Did they not show McCain up in New Mexico too?

I was just looking back at 2004 polls around this time...and Mason-Dixon was on the ball, as were Strategic Vision and Rasmussen. Gallup was off.

[afleitch]

I wouldn't worry much:

M-D has shown MI tied and a few days later McCain pulled out of the state. I'm a bit suspicious of them this year ...

Did they not show McCain up in New Mexico too?

I was just looking back at 2004 polls around this time...and Mason-Dixon was on the ball, as were Strategic Vision and Rasmussen. Gallup was off.

It's best to compare pollster by pollster, state by state. A M-D only polls infrequently it is dfficult to identify any trend with them. Their last PA poll in 2004 was taken in mid-October: it showed Kerry 46 and Bush 45 with 9% undecided. Now it's 10% undecided in 2008 at the end of October - that is a suspiciously high number.

[J. J.]

PA will be close, but I'm predicting Obama will carry it.  I'll bet my prediction of 1.5 points will be within 5 points (which is Rasmussen's MOE).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Obama - 47
McCain - 43

if this is accurate, Obama is in trouble in PA:  leading by 4% with 10% undecided is cutting it very close since undecideds will break for McCain.  But, I don't expect this poll to be accurate.  My gut tells me Obama leads 50-44 with 6% undecided...but my gut is not polling anyone

[Reaganfan]

I think Obama will carry PA but it will be very close.

[ucscgaldamez]

Kerry was leading Bush 48-46% around this time in 2004 according to Mason-Dixon. Obama is leading by 4, much better than +2. We know what the final results were.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now it's 10% undecided in 2008 at the end of October - that is a suspiciously high number.

I don't know about suspicious, but it does mean that it should probably be treated as measuring something slightly different to most other polls.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Kerry was leading Bush 48-46% around this time in 2004 according to Mason-Dixon. Obama is leading by 4, much better than +2. We know what the final results were.

and the undecideds are going to break the same way with Obama as with Kerry?   neither campaign believes that.

I am not saying this poll is accurate, but you're placing false hope in how the undecideds broke in 2004

[Eraserhead]

Almost certainly an outlier. Even MD can have them, guys.

[ucscgaldamez]

Kerry was leading Bush 48-46% around this time in 2004 according to Mason-Dixon. Obama is leading by 4, much better than +2. We know what the final results were.

and the undecideds are going to break the same way with Obama as with Kerry?   neither campaign believes that.

I am not saying this poll is accurate, but you're placing false hope in how the undecideds broke in 2004

I don't know the answer to how they will break, neither do you. We will find out Tuesday night. Stay tuned.

[Alcon]

Mason-Dixon is so weird this year.  I'm sorry, sacred cow and all, but what's going on?

[TheGlobalizer]

Probably a little too favorable for McCain, but M-D is reliable enough to give them the benefit of the doubt.  As others routinely say -- it's a data point, move on.

[Person Man]

Well, it will be funny as hell if Pennsylvania has to be recounted because of a large enough Bradley Effect, even when Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico fell in a reasonable time in the evening.

[J. J.]

I think Obama will carry PA but it will be very close.

Mike, you have tended to be right more than I am, but I still have Obama winning PA, though very closely.  I think this margin is why Obama and McCain have been "palling around" in PA.

As for being an outlier, the polls have been tightening in PA, and this might be at the low edge of the MOE.  It's only three points off the last Rasmussen.

[Keystone Phil]

Shhhhhhhhhhhh...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mason-Dixon is so weird this year.  I'm sorry, sacred cow and all, but what's going on?

I suppose it's possible that they're finding things, important things, that everyone else is missing. But that hardly ever actually happens in polland. Perhaps something is a little off with their fiddling. Maybe we'll find out soon enough.

[Lunar]

With the MoE of 7 or so, where I have the race.

I don't see the big deal.  You don't judge a race by where the poll closest to your preferred result has it, but the overall spread.

[bullmoose88]

What counties in PA would you see as Bellweathers?

I think Bucks would be a pretty good one, though I personally suspect it tilt towards Obama (just a matter of how strongly).