Harris Poll (nat'l): Obama by 6%

[Alcon]

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/10/29/Harris_Poll_Obama_ahead_by_6_percent/UPI-79261225291441/

12% early voters, Obama +9

Margin unchanged

[Eraserhead]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Trust me, so am I.

[Sam Spade]

Harris is a good poll, which leans slightly Democratic.  It's basically the only Internet poll I would trust.  Sample is a smidgen old, however.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

6 points sounds about right

[J. J.]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Trust me, so am I.

You both are wise, though if I were predicting now, I'd give the race to Obama.

[opebo]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Trust me, so am I.

I've been nervous for quite a while now.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Trust me, so am I.

I've been nervous for quite a while now.

you should repent, you'll feel better for the rest of eternity

[opebo]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Trust me, so am I.

I've been nervous for quite a while now.

you should repent, you'll feel better for the rest of eternity

Repent from wanting Obama to win?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Trust me, so am I.

I've been nervous for quite a while now.

you should repent, you'll feel better for the rest of eternity

Repent from wanting Obama to win?

yeah, that too.

[Wall St. Wiz]

Why are you guys getting nervous? If it was the other way around I wouldn't be.  Obama is ahead in all the national polls, just by different degrees.  He seems to have the electoral college locked up with Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA.  He's got the money advantage, the ground game, the media, and everything else going for him.

It may not end up being the landslide you all wanted, but I have a hard time seeing how McCain gets to 270.

[J. J.]

Why are you guys getting nervous? If it was the other way around I wouldn't be.  Obama is ahead in all the national polls, just by different degrees.  He seems to have the electoral college locked up with Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA.  He's got the money advantage, the ground game, the media, and everything else going for him.

It may not end up being the landslide you all wanted, but I have a hard time seeing how McCain gets to 270.

I really wouldn't call CO or VA "locked" but I'd say lean Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Why? +6 is fine, especially with only 6 days left.

[Eraserhead]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Why? +6 is fine, especially with only 6 days left.

Obama is black, you see.

Seriously though, I'm not that worried... but can you honestly tell me you won't be at least a little nervous by the time election night rolls around (especially with at least some tightening going on)?

[TheresNoMoney]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Why? +6 is fine, especially with only 6 days left.

Obama is black, you see.

No, it's Obama is a black, you see.

[Person Man]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. I probably shouldn't be, but I am.

Why? +6 is fine, especially with only 6 days left.

Obama is black, you see.

No, it's Obama is a black, you see.

mmmm.... hmmm....

Yeah. I am beginning to worry about the Bradley Effect and the Republicans trying to steal the election again. Though the fact that they weren't able to steal the election in 2006 put my mind at ease a little. Then again, that wasn't a presidential race....and the Republicans can simply force the judiciary to super legislate massive economic deregulation, massive cultural regulation and powers from Congress to the president. I mean, even if the Dems gain big in Congress, they will either have to confirm McCain's Federalistas or face an empty judiciary. ...but I digress. Then again, with Obama between +5 and +8, depending on the time of week, and him being up +8 in each states that comprise 286 electoral votes, I am also put at ease.

My guess is that if Undecideds break 70% McCain in a worst-case Bradley Effect scenario, Obama can only be up  47-45 on election day and still win, even if the final national result is 49.5-48-1.5 in favor of Obama. This way, Obama should still squeak into a few thousand vote lead in Colorado, New Mexico and Viriginia, even though he still may lose New Hampshire.

Because of any Bradley effect would be strongest in Pennsylvania and Michigan, I expect then to flip at the same time that Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico to flip. I can't see any other type of flip in any other circumstance.

At...say a three point McCain Victory, say...50.7,47.7,1.7- I can see McCain winning the EC in his own mini-landslide-

[opebo]

Why are you guys getting nervous? If it was the other way around I wouldn't be.  Obama is ahead in all the national polls, just by different degrees.  He seems to have the electoral college locked up with Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA.  He's got the money advantage, the ground game, the media, and everything else going for him.

It may not end up being the landslide you all wanted, but I have a hard time seeing how McCain gets to 270.

Come on, Wiz, Colorado and Virginia are not locked up, particularly Virginia, and after all Pennsylvania could still go to McCain.

As has been pointed out above McCain's white skin is a much more substantial advantage than any of the factors you list.

[Bob Dole '96]

Why are you guys getting nervous? If it was the other way around I wouldn't be.  Obama is ahead in all the national polls, just by different degrees.  He seems to have the electoral college locked up with Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA.  He's got the money advantage, the ground game, the media, and everything else going for him.

It may not end up being the landslide you all wanted, but I have a hard time seeing how McCain gets to 270.

I really wouldn't call CO or VA "locked" but I'd say lean Obama.

I'd say they are actually leaning McCain.  The state polls are grossly oversampling Democrats.  Please look at their internals.

[TheGlobalizer]

Yeah. I am beginning to worry about the Bradley Effect and the Republicans trying to steal the election again.

I love how Dems win elections and Republicans steal them.