OR: Survey USA: Obama leads Oregon by 19% (user search)
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  OR: Survey USA: Obama leads Oregon by 19% (search mode)
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Author Topic: OR: Survey USA: Obama leads Oregon by 19%  (Read 1884 times)
Alcon
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« on: October 27, 2008, 05:14:18 PM »
« edited: October 27, 2008, 05:18:00 PM by Alcon »

New Poll: Oregon President by Survey USA on 2008-10-26

Summary: D: 57%, R: 38%, I: 3%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Among the 50% of voters who have already cast ballots, he leads by 28%.  Oy.
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2008, 11:54:58 PM »

Oregon was more Democrat than Washington in 1988.

Doesn't Obama have an exceptionally strong ground game in Oregon and the Portland area? Plus, the closeness of the governor's race in Washington might affect the presidential race, making it closer than Oregon.

Well, there's not really much in a way of a "ground game" in a state that's all vote-by-mail, but yeah, he has lots of energetic support in Oregon.  And lots of stuff has changed since 1988.  Dukakis did awful in the PNW middle-class suburbs, and WA has more of those.

I'm guessing your second thesis is accurate, but I still would give higher-than-50% odds that Oregon is closer.  I'd give much higher ads that OR will swing more, though, and that both states will be double-digit mini-blowouts.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2008, 12:07:59 AM »

I think Obama's showered a LOT more attention on Oregon than Washington.

They fought harder for the primary there, which was a critical test of his campaign after the IN-NC [slight?] victory.

I've gotten three to four contacts by the Obama campaign, living four-five hours away from Oregon, to tell all of my "friends" in Oregon to register.

I agree.  I think that the polls are somewhat overstating Obama's lead in Oregon and under-balling it in Washington.  However, the gap will shrink, and maybe disappear.  That's not because Obama is a better candidate for Oregon, or McCain a worse one.  I think McCain is probably worse for OR, but at the same time it's more polarized.

The shrinking gap is totally due to left-over primary enthusiasm and registration.  I think VBM means it's somewhat overstated, but I think it's more likely than Dukakis residuals (Tongue).
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2008, 12:41:20 AM »

Among the 50% of voters who have already cast ballots, he leads by 28%.  Oy.

50% surely haven't voted.

As of Sunday (when the poll was conducted) 400.000 have voted in Oregon, which would only be about 1/5 of expected turnout this year.

Well, that's actually ballots received by Saturday, so that number is probably edging closer to 30%, maybe above, but still yeah...lots of liars.  Always are.
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