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  OR: Survey USA: Obama leads Oregon by 19%
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Author Topic: OR: Survey USA: Obama leads Oregon by 19%  (Read 1679 times)
Alcon
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« on: October 27, 2008, 05:14:18 pm »
« edited: October 27, 2008, 05:18:00 pm by Alcon »

New Poll: Oregon President by Survey USA on 2008-10-26

Summary: D: 57%, R: 38%, I: 3%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Among the 50% of voters who have already cast ballots, he leads by 28%.  Oy.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2008, 05:14:54 pm »

Ah, SUSA and its wild swings.  Not buying it.

Bad news for a guy named Gordon though.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2008, 06:07:27 pm »

It's weird to think that Oregon might go more strongly for Obama than Washington... Though I feel like we will end up giving Obama a larger percentage of the vote here in Washington than he has been polling.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2008, 06:21:37 pm »

It's weird to think that Oregon might go more strongly for Obama than Washington...

I've only been saying that since spring.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2008, 07:04:34 pm »

Why would that happen though? I've always thought of WA as a more democratic Oregon. Could it have to do with the Gregoire-Rossi race?
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auburntiger
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2008, 11:46:44 pm »

Oregon was more Democrat than Washington in 1988.

Doesn't Obama have an exceptionally strong ground game in Oregon and the Portland area? Plus, the closeness of the governor's race in Washington might affect the presidential race, making it closer than Oregon.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2008, 11:54:58 pm »

Oregon was more Democrat than Washington in 1988.

Doesn't Obama have an exceptionally strong ground game in Oregon and the Portland area? Plus, the closeness of the governor's race in Washington might affect the presidential race, making it closer than Oregon.

Well, there's not really much in a way of a "ground game" in a state that's all vote-by-mail, but yeah, he has lots of energetic support in Oregon.  And lots of stuff has changed since 1988.  Dukakis did awful in the PNW middle-class suburbs, and WA has more of those.

I'm guessing your second thesis is accurate, but I still would give higher-than-50% odds that Oregon is closer.  I'd give much higher ads that OR will swing more, though, and that both states will be double-digit mini-blowouts.
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2008, 12:02:06 am »

I think Obama's showered a LOT more attention on Oregon than Washington.

They fought harder for the primary there, which was a critical test of his campaign after the IN-NC [slight?] victory.

I've gotten three to four contacts by the Obama campaign, living four-five hours away from Oregon, to tell all of my "friends" in Oregon to register.
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Alcon
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2008, 12:07:59 am »

I think Obama's showered a LOT more attention on Oregon than Washington.

They fought harder for the primary there, which was a critical test of his campaign after the IN-NC [slight?] victory.

I've gotten three to four contacts by the Obama campaign, living four-five hours away from Oregon, to tell all of my "friends" in Oregon to register.

I agree.  I think that the polls are somewhat overstating Obama's lead in Oregon and under-balling it in Washington.  However, the gap will shrink, and maybe disappear.  That's not because Obama is a better candidate for Oregon, or McCain a worse one.  I think McCain is probably worse for OR, but at the same time it's more polarized.

The shrinking gap is totally due to left-over primary enthusiasm and registration.  I think VBM means it's somewhat overstated, but I think it's more likely than Dukakis residuals (Tongue).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2008, 12:29:04 am »

Among the 50% of voters who have already cast ballots, he leads by 28%.  Oy.

50% surely haven't voted.

As of Sunday (when the poll was conducted) 400.000 have voted in Oregon, which would only be about 1/5 of expected turnout this year.
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Alcon
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2008, 12:41:20 am »

Among the 50% of voters who have already cast ballots, he leads by 28%.  Oy.

50% surely haven't voted.

As of Sunday (when the poll was conducted) 400.000 have voted in Oregon, which would only be about 1/5 of expected turnout this year.

Well, that's actually ballots received by Saturday, so that number is probably edging closer to 30%, maybe above, but still yeah...lots of liars.  Always are.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2008, 10:01:01 pm »

Republican 33% (36%): McCain 82% (79%); Obama 12% (18%)

Democrat 47% (45%): McCain 9% (12%); Obama 88% (86%)

Independent 19% (18%): McCain 32% (33%); Obama 56% (58%)

Conservative 30% (29%): McCain 81% (86%); Obama 13% (11%)

Moderate 42% (39%): McCain 25% (30%); Obama 69% (66%)

Liberal 24% (20%): McCain 6% (4%); Obama 90% (5%)

(denotes SUSA, Oct. 11-12, 2008)
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