Quebec 2008: ADQ getting owned LIVE. LIBERALS LEAD DUPLESSIS!11!!!

[Hash]

62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

[Хahar 🤔]

62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

I knew the tide is anti-sovereigntist, but I didn't think it'd be like this.

[Verily]

62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

I knew the tide is anti-sovereigntist, but I didn't think it'd be like this.

62% don't want a referendum, not 62% against independence.

[Хahar 🤔]

62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

I knew the tide is anti-sovereigntist, but I didn't think it'd be like this.

62% don't want a referendum, not 62% against independence.

Ohh, I see.

[MaxQue]

62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

I knew the tide is anti-sovereigntist, but I didn't think it'd be like this.

62% don't want a referendum, not 62% against independence.

Ohh, I see.

No, 62% are against independence.

[Hash]

62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

I knew the tide is anti-sovereigntist, but I didn't think it'd be like this.

62% don't want a referendum, not 62% against independence.

No, that's completely wrong. 62% would vote no.

[Verily]

62-38% no?

Wow.

What is so surprising?

I knew the tide is anti-sovereigntist, but I didn't think it'd be like this.

62% don't want a referendum, not 62% against independence.

No, that's completely wrong. 62% would vote no.

Sorry, I guessed that was the case based off of your post. 62% against is a bit surprising.

[Hatman 🍁]

It is very surprising, but a good sign.  Vive le Quebec!

[Hash]

Leger, November 17

Lib 44
PQ 33
Mario 15
Greenies 4
QS 4

Francophone: Lib 39, PQ 37, ADQ 15, QS, Greenies 4
Non-Francophone (small sample) Lib 68, ADQ 14, PQ 12, QS 3, Greenies 3
Changing votes: Lib 66% definitive choice, PQ 62% definitive choice, ADQ 48% definitive choice (50% could change)
Best PM: Charest 43, Marois 27, Mario 13, NOTA 7, Undecided 5, David 3, Rainville 1
Referendum: 63-37 No
Turnout: Compared to 2007, 48% are as inclined to vote as they were in 2007, 37% less so, 13% more so.

Junk:

Culture, French etc: Marois 54, Charest 26, Mario 9
Best to deal with financeland troubles: Charest 51, Marois 26, Mario 10
Interest in this boring crap: 51% don't give a sh**t. (including 59% of Adequistes)
Should Charest win: 64 say yes
Women PM: 92-6 say they'd be OK
Who will win Lib 75, PQ 14, Lived on another planet 4, DK 7

Applied to HDKP's predictor

Lib 73
PQ 50
ADQ 2 (includes Dumont defeated wtf lol)

[Hash]

Riding polls!

Champlain (400 répondants)

PQ: 50%
LIB: 32%
ADQ: 15%
Others: 3%

Saint-Maurice (401 répondants)

PQ: 41%
LIB: 36%
ADQ: 20%
Other: 3%

Trois-Rivières (400 répondants)

LIB: 37%
PQ: 31%
ADQ: 21%
VRT: 7%
QS: 4%


Oh, and this is funny: http://medias.tva.ca/2008/11/19/1866.wmv.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Riding polls!

Get out your salt, people!

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Comfortably ADQ in 2007, narrowly PQ (over PLQ) in 2003. ADQ incumbent is running as a Liberal.

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Narrow ADQ gain (PQ second) in 2007, extremely tight (PQ 34, PLQ 32, ADQ 32) in 2003.

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ADQ gain in 2007, narrowly PLQ in 2003.

[Hash]

Riding polls!

Get out your salt, people!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Comfortably ADQ in 2007, narrowly PQ (over PLQ) in 2003. ADQ incumbent is running as a Liberal.

Ah, yes, it's his seat. Forgot that.

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ADQ gain in 2007, narrowly PLQ in 2003.

Current MNA is Sébastien Proulx, ADQ House Leader and the only other ADQ MNA most people know.

[Хahar 🤔]

Wasn't that Duplessis' seat?

[Hash]

Wasn't that Duplessis' seat?

Yes. Trois-Rivières.

[Hash]

Clowns are debating tonight. Obviously, I prefer to watch 22 Minutes.

Anyways, 3 polls

Nanos, November 23

Lib 44
PQ 36
Mario 12
Greenies 4
QS 4

No linguistic breakdown or anything, in addition to a different question. And Nanos has never polled Quebec provincial politics before.

Leger, November 24

Lib 46 (+2)
PQ 34 (+1)
Mario 12 (-3)
Greenies 4.2
QS 3.8

The full results are not online, but this is a quick overview of what we have available now:

Francophone: PQ 40, Lib 38, ADQ 14
Changing votes: 64% (+7) are sure. 33% (-6) could change.
Best PM: Charest 41, Marois 26, Mario 9, David 3

CROP, November 25

Lib 45 (+3)
PQ 32 (+1)
Mario 12 (-3)
Greenies 5 (-2)
QS 5 (+1)

The full results are not online, but this is a quick overview of what we have available now:

Francophone: PQ 39, Lib 36, ADQ 15, QS 6, Greenies 5
Non-Francophone: Lib 81, Greenies 8, ADQ 7, PQ 4
Changing votes: 64% (+7) are sure. 33% (-6) could change.
Best PM: Charest 44, Marois 27, Mario 12, NOTA 10, Und 6
Government: 44 want to keep the current government, 45 want a new one (37-52 in 2003 and 35-58 in 2007).
This is boring: 57% (-5) agree with me.
Approve: 51-45 approve of the government. -8 for approvals, +5 for disapproval.


Roundup of all predictions online

308.com Nov 25

Lib 67
PQ 54
Mario 4

HDKP Nov 25

Lib 79
PQ 45
Mario 1

Geloso-Breguet Nov 24

Lib 73
PQ 48
Mario 4

However, they say they wouldn't be surprised if only Mario survived for the ADQ and wouldn't be surprised if the Lieberals won over 50% of the votes.

DemSpace Nov 22

Lib 70
PQ 46
Mario 9

QuebecPol Nov 19

Lib 78
PQ 45
Mario 2

[Hash]

More related to polls from 308.com (regional breakdowns)




Riding polls! By Segma (aka Zogby-ARG!)

Chicoutimi

PQ: 51%
LIB: 37%
ADQ: 6%
QS: 5%

Dubuc

LIB: 45%
PQ: 35%
ADQ: 13%
QS: 7%

Jonquière

PQ: 44%
LIB: 42%
ADQ: 9%
QS: 4%

Lac-Saint-Jean

PQ: 58%
LIB: 30%
ADQ: 5%
Greenies: 5%
QS: 2%

Roberval

PQ: 48%
LIB: 41%
ADQ: 6%
QS: 4%

All are currently held by the PQ.

[Hash]

Nominations closed on November 22. 651 candidates.

Lib, PQ, Mario all running a full slate. 122 for QS, 80 Greenies, 23 Marxist-Leninist, 19 PI, 1 "Parti durable du Québec", 1 Republic of Quebec, 30 Indies. 8 registered parties are not running candidates, including the Bloc Pot, Affiliation Quebec, Union du centre, Communist, Christian Democracy (fundies), and other things I never saw before.

[Хahar 🤔]

What seats isn't QS running in?

[MaxQue]

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce: A liberal stronghold. They endorsed the Green Party since that was their best result in Quebec in 2007.

Abibiti-Ouest: A pequiste stronghold. They finded a candidate but she didn't succeed to be on the ballot.

Gatineau: Liberal stronghold.

[Kevinstat]

Does the "peq" in "pequiste" refer to the PQ?

[Хahar 🤔]

Does the "peq" in "pequiste" refer to the PQ?

It does. "Pequiste" is a contraction of "PQ-iste".

[Hash]

Does the "peq" in "pequiste" refer to the PQ?

It does. "Pequiste" is a contraction of "PQ-iste".

"Adequiste" is ADQ-iste. And there's not really a similar word for the Liberals, except maybe PLQiste.

[Kevinstat]

I seem to remember QS finishing second (to the PQ) in at least one riding in 2007.  What were their best ridings percentage-wise and those where they came in the highest (2nd being higher than 3rd, etc.) place (perhaps the same, but not necessarily)?

[Hash]

I seem to remember QS finishing second (to the PQ) in at least one riding in 2007.  What were their best ridings percentage-wise and those where they came in the highest (2nd being higher than 3rd, etc.) place (perhaps the same, but not necessarily)?

QS got 26.03% in Gouin and 29.38% in Mercier. David ran in Gouin and Khadir in Mercier. And 14.16% in Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques.

[Hatman 🍁]

I seem to remember QS finishing second (to the PQ) in at least one riding in 2007.  What were their best ridings percentage-wise and those where they came in the highest (2nd being higher than 3rd, etc.) place (perhaps the same, but not necessarily)?

QS got 26.03% in Gouin and 29.38% in Mercier. David ran in Gouin and Khadir in Mercier. And 14.16% in Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques.

they finished a close second in both those ridings. They are very working class francophone ridings.