VA-SurveyUSA: Obama continues to lead by a healthy margin
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Author Topic: VA-SurveyUSA: Obama continues to lead by a healthy margin  (Read 3073 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 27, 2008, 10:42:00 AM »
Obama - 52
McCain - 43

Early Voters (9% of the sample):

Obama - 67
McCain - 30

800 adults were interviewed 10/25/08 and 10/26/08. Of them 764 were registered to vote. Of them, 671 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7bcdca4d-f6ea-4515-9928-119c5590638e
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2008, 10:42:33 AM »
Ahh, VA you make me happy ! Smiley
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Sbane
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2008, 10:48:40 AM »
Mccain getting absolutely pizzowned in fake virginia.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2008, 10:53:31 AM »
wow!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2008, 11:11:39 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 11:29:58 AM by Eraserhead »
VA looks pretty close to a done deal.
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Rowan
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2008, 11:26:23 AM »
Party ID folks, party ID.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2008, 11:28:08 AM »

This has gotta be the 20th time where I've been forced to re-iterate my point about SUSA and party ID.  You can't just throw SUSA polls out because their partisan spread looks off.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2008, 11:30:27 AM »
Quote from: Alcon on October 27, 2008, 11:28:08 AM

This has gotta be the 20th time where I've been forced to re-iterate my point about SUSA and party ID.  You can't just throw SUSA polls out because their partisan spread looks off.

Get ready to do it a few more times before this thing is over.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2008, 11:34:15 AM »
Quote from: Alcon on October 27, 2008, 11:28:08 AM

This has gotta be the 20th time where I've been forced to re-iterate my point about SUSA and party ID.  You can't just throw SUSA polls out because their partisan spread looks off.

Okay I'll throw it out because it has too many young voters and the regional breakdowns are off.
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Franzl
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2008, 11:35:57 AM »
Virginia is quickly becoming out of reach for Mac.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2008, 11:36:50 AM »
Haha, Rowan thinks McCain still has a shot at Virginia.

I'm getting close to moving this state to safe Obama.
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Aizen
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2008, 12:01:47 PM »
Virginia is not a swing state
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2008, 12:03:35 PM »

You're right. McCain takes it.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2008, 12:04:26 PM »

lol
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2008, 12:05:43 PM »
Goldmine material.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2008, 12:05:57 PM »

he's written it off...  he's resorting to something like this
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Aizen
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2008, 12:06:13 PM »


Just you wait one more week. I have some humble pie right here for you. Rest assured I'll force-feed it down your throat.
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tokar
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2008, 12:12:12 PM »

Hey, can you change your USElectionAtlas avatar?  I think R-NJ fits you better.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2008, 12:18:43 PM »
Quote from: tokar on October 27, 2008, 12:12:12 PM

Hey, can you change your USElectionAtlas avatar?  I think R-NJ fits you better.

Just because I support McCain, it doesn't make me a Republican.
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Aizen
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2008, 12:20:46 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 27, 2008, 12:18:43 PM
Quote from: tokar on October 27, 2008, 12:12:12 PM

Hey, can you change your USElectionAtlas avatar?  I think R-NJ fits you better.

Just because I support McCain, it doesn't make me a Republican.


The "R"  wouldn't stand for "Republican"... It would stand for "Retarded".
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Alcon
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2008, 04:07:14 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 27, 2008, 11:34:15 AM
Quote from: Alcon on October 27, 2008, 11:28:08 AM

This has gotta be the 20th time where I've been forced to re-iterate my point about SUSA and party ID.  You can't just throw SUSA polls out because their partisan spread looks off.

Okay I'll throw it out because it has too many young voters and the regional breakdowns are off.

In 2004, 17% of Virginia voters were under 30.  Assuming that only 1/4 of the 30-44 demographic in Virginia was under 35 (probably generous to your argument), we're now up to exactly 25%.  Which is, coincidentally, exactly the sample this poll has.

What about the regional break-down is a red flag to you?  Keep in mind that the MoEs on those range from +/-7.2% to +/-8.3%.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2008, 06:55:59 PM »
Republican 30% (34%): McCain 84% (86%); Obama 12% (11%)

Democrat 38% (40%): McCain 12% (9%); Obama 87% (88%)

Independent 30% (25%): McCain 42% (46%); Obama 46% (47%)

Conservative 31% (32%): McCain 78% (75%); Obama 17% (23%)

Moderate 46% (45%): McCain 33% (39%); Obama 62% (57%)

Liberal 16% (17%): McCain 15% (15%); Obama 78% (81%)

Regions:

Shenandoah 25% (25%): McCain 47% (51%); Obama 46% (45%)
Northeast 26% (26%): McCain 33% (36%); Obama 63% (60%)
Southeast 21% (21%): McCain 46% (45%); Obama 48% (52%)
Central 28% (28%): McCain 46% (48%); Obama 49% (47%)

(denotes SUSA, Oct. 18-19, 2008)
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LanceMcSteel
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2008, 09:30:26 PM »
Fake America Communist NOVA and African Americans will crush old man McCain.

Safe Obama.
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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2008, 09:35:05 PM »
So does the fake part of Virginia deliver fake votes or real votes?
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