NH: University of New Hampshire: Obama surges to 15-point lead
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Author Topic: NH: University of New Hampshire: Obama surges to 15-point lead  (Read 1753 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 26, 2008, 08:46:39 AM »
New Poll: New Hampshire President by University of New Hampshire on 2008-10-25

Summary: D: 54%, R: 39%, I: 0%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Rowan
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2008, 08:47:44 AM »
Uhh, who to believe, RAS or a college? Hmmm...
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2008, 10:10:09 AM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 08:47:44 AM
Uhh, who to believe, RAS or a college? Hmmm...

Like you believe Ras whenever he has a good poll for Obama.

UNH is one of the few good uni polls. They basically nailed 2004 (Last poll was Kerry +1)
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tokar
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2008, 11:47:20 AM »
I think republicans need to get it in their head that New Hampshire isn't a toss-up state and has 0% chance of going to McCain.
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Daniel Adams
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2008, 12:50:05 PM »
Quote from: tokar on October 26, 2008, 11:47:20 AM
I think republicans need to get it in their head that New Hampshire isn't a toss-up state and has 0% chance of going to McCain.
Even Nate Silver, whom you seemingly revere, gives McCain a 6% chance of winning NH.
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tokar
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2008, 12:52:46 PM »
Quote from: Daniel Adams on October 26, 2008, 12:50:05 PM
Quote from: tokar on October 26, 2008, 11:47:20 AM
I think republicans need to get it in their head that New Hampshire isn't a toss-up state and has 0% chance of going to McCain.
Even Nate Silver, whom you seemingly revere, gives McCain a 6% chance of winning NH.

6% is somewhat generous.
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2008, 03:35:28 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 08:47:44 AM
Uhh, who to believe, RAS or a college? Hmmm...

Wasn't this college more accurate than Rasmussen in 2004?
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2008, 03:37:06 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 08:47:44 AM
Uhh, who to believe, RAS or a college? Hmmm...

For you, the one which has Obama up the least.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2008, 04:08:52 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on October 26, 2008, 03:35:28 PM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 08:47:44 AM
Uhh, who to believe, RAS or a college? Hmmm...

Wasn't this college more accurate than Rasmussen in 2004?

I generally believe Rasmussen, but, IIRC, this was one of those better in state college polls.  Anybody got a track record?
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2008, 04:19:59 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on October 26, 2008, 04:08:52 PM
Quote from: Lunar on October 26, 2008, 03:35:28 PM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 08:47:44 AM
Uhh, who to believe, RAS or a college? Hmmm...

Wasn't this college more accurate than Rasmussen in 2004?

I generally believe Rasmussen, but, IIRC, this was one of those better in state college polls.  Anybody got a track record?

Spot on in 2004, IIRC.
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benconstine
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2008, 04:25:15 PM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 08:47:44 AM
Uhh, who to believe, RAS or a college? Hmmm...

What about when Ras has Obama +16?  Who will you believe then?
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2008, 05:15:30 PM »
Does UNH use live interviewers?  Rasmussen doesn't.

This may sound counterintuitive, but I think Eastern New England, of all regions, is most likely to be susceptible to the Bradley/Wilder effect.  It's probably the most quietly racist part of the country (Southerners are pretty open about their racism).
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Lunar
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2008, 05:16:04 PM »
Quote from: 44=BZH on October 26, 2008, 04:19:59 PM
Quote from: J. J. on October 26, 2008, 04:08:52 PM
Quote from: Lunar on October 26, 2008, 03:35:28 PM
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 26, 2008, 08:47:44 AM
Uhh, who to believe, RAS or a college? Hmmm...

Wasn't this college more accurate than Rasmussen in 2004?

I generally believe Rasmussen, but, IIRC, this was one of those better in state college polls.  Anybody got a track record?

Spot on in 2004, IIRC.

Oops.  My mistake.  

Well, they're both good polls from 2004's track record, but one good poll a good pollster does not make.  But it's not necessarily one to chuck into the bucket either.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2008, 05:23:34 PM »
Obama won't win NH by 15%, but he'll win by 2-5 points more than the national average.
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