Israel 2009

[dunn]

Haaretz-Dialoge poll:

Likud: 34
Kadima: 28
Labor: 10
Shas: 10
"arab parties": 10
Yisrael beitenu(Lieberman): 9
Meretz: 7
UTJ: 7
The Jewish home (replaces Nrp-Nru): 4
Greens: 0-2

[Umengus]

Go bibi!

[big bad fab]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

[Hash]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

It was 1% before, then 1.5%. Now it's 2.5%.

[Jens]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

You mean having a party with a large majority in parliament (55%) with 35% of the votes is the best. Sure, much better to avoid giving dissatisfied votes representation than having to deal with opposition. That is probably why turnout is sooo high in FPTP-systems (61% UK to 87% in DK, 77% in N & 78% in G).

[Хahar 🤔]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

You mean having a party with a large majority in parliament (55%) with 35% of the votes is the best. Sure, much better to avoid giving dissatisfied votes representation than having to deal with opposition. That is probably why turnout is sooo high in FPTP-systems (61% UK to 87% in DK, 77% in N & 78% in G).

PR is good in countries that are stable electorally, but not in those that are unstable.

[danny]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.

[danny]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.

Basically, yes but while both the national religious settlements (extreme right), south Tel Aviv (poor mizrahi) and south Ashdod (Russians) would all probably elect a Likud guy they would be very different.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.

Basically, yes but while both the national religious settlements (extreme right), south Tel Aviv (poor mizrahi) and south Ashdod (Russians) would all probably elect a Likud guy they would be very different.

But they would all come from the same party, making coalitions easier.

[danny]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.

Basically, yes but while both the national religious settlements (extreme right), south Tel Aviv (poor mizrahi) and south Ashdod (Russians) would all probably elect a Likud guy they would be very different.

But they would all come from the same party, making coalitions easier.

I think your underestimating the ability of Israeli politicians to fight amongst eachother. It's already common for parties to split and for MKs to leave their party when they're supposed to be more homogenous.
Besides even if they work it out it would just give even more sway to the haredi.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think your underestimating the ability of Israeli politicians to fight amongst eachother.

Which is not something that you should ever, ever do.

[Jens]

The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

You mean having a party with a large majority in parliament (55%) with 35% of the votes is the best. Sure, much better to avoid giving dissatisfied votes representation than having to deal with opposition. That is probably why turnout is sooo high in FPTP-systems (61% UK to 87% in DK, 77% in N & 78% in G).

PR is good in countries that are stable electorally, but not in those that are unstable.

It's more about respecting the rules of democracy. PR fx makes it possible in times of crisis to have a parliament that reflect public opinion. FPTP makes it very impossible for new political forces to break through.

[danny]

Up to now this is turning in to a bizarre election so far where most parties seem to be fighting amongst themselves rather than against each other.

 Labor is the funniest case where Barak forced through a vote in the party committee to have non-secret voting for "shiryunim" (deciding in advance a certain place for a certain person in the party before the primaries) to make sure his buddies get in. However, the plan backfired when it was eventually decided that an open ballot was against the party constitution so the whole thing was canceled. The whole affair was of course accompanied by fighting between the Barak camp and some anti-Barak party activists.

 Kadima- Following the announcement of Meni Mazuz (officially called the legal adviser to the government but is the Israeli version of attorney general) that he will press charges against Olmert on corruption charges, Livni, Kadimas chairwoman and the acting prime minister, called for Olmert, Her own parties representative, to step down. Of course, par the course with Livni, she did in a gutless hypocritical way since Olmert said no she seems to have no desire to actually resign from her roles in Olmert's government.

 Likud- Following the polls showing a Likud win suddenly a whole bunch of people, some of whom with very questionable ties to the party, decided to run in the primaries. These people have been welcomed with great fanfare and press conferences by bibi, something that's causing a murmur amongst Likud old timers. Also the primaries are heating up between the moderate wing of the party( Meridor, Hefetz, sort of bibi etc) and the more hawkish wing (Benny Begin (son of) Zeev Zhabotinsky (grandson of) Feiglin, and the Likud rebels).
 On a personal note, if the hawkish side wins I'll definitely vote Likud, if the moderate wing wins I'll have to reconsider.

 The Jewish home- A total mess, this party is a union between the NRP and the National Union parties. the main point of the union seemed to be to have a single primary amongst them to decide the placings in the list. To decide on how the primary will be conducted they set up a committee to set the rules. Except rather than do their job, they decided not to have any primaries and to simply decide on the placings itself, using the the excuse that primaries would be divisive (as if the decision to cancel the primaries wasn't...). This decision caused the members of the former parties to blame one another of being behind the decision because they were afraid to lose in the primaries.

 United Torah Judaism- The big fight is over the aftermath of the Jerusalem Municipal election where the haredi candidate, mk Porush, was hated by several hasidic sects, most prominent among them being the Gur, after Porush supposedly screwed them over in past. This resulted in the Gur voting for the secular candidate, and being partially "to blame" for Porush's loss. The whole ordeal caused a huge rift between the Porush camp and between Gur and allies, with both sides threatening not to vote for the party as long as the other side will be represented in the list.

[danny]

new poll:

Likud- 35
Kadima- 26
Shas- 10
"arab parties"- 10
Yisrael Beitenu- 9
Meretz- 8
Labor- 7
UTJ- 6
The Jewish Home- 6
Greens- 3

[Hash]

lol Labor.

[danny]

New poll in Yisrael hayom by "new wave":

Likud 35
Kadima 26
Yisrael Beitenu10
Shas 10
Labor 8
Meretz 7
Jewish home 5
UTJ 5
Greens 2
GIL 2

they the combine it to right- 65, left- 55.The paper is right that Kadima is left nowadays but GIL is more problematic.

[danny]

Lol, just when you think Labor can't get more pathetic they do this:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3631836,00.html

idiots.

[Yamor]

What is causing the widening gap between Likud and Kadima? Also, is the infighting in Likud (Beilin) making any difference?

[danny]

What is causing the widening gap between Likud and Kadima?

Not sure, but probably in part due to the many people who joined Likud lately.

Also, is the infighting in Likud (Beilin) making any difference?

You mean Feiglin (Beilin is the former Meretz chairman) and I don't think care about it yet but if he gets in and Kadima attacks Likud over his presence it will.

[Yamor]

Interesting, and yes, I did mean Feiglin.

I saw somewhere today that Shas, interestingly, are reaching out to the Arabs, even giving them one place on their list, someone called Najib Me'udi. He says he thinks he could get them 20,000 votes. That's basically another seat. It must be a first for an ultra-orthodox party.

[danny]

Today they had the Labor primaries for a second and it seems to have gone off okay, and the results should known by tomorrow . Of course, because of the events in hebron the elections have become an afterthought in the news and are barely mentioned.

[Hash]

Get out of this thread, Stark. And Ben, don't feed the troll.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Right.  Sorry.

[Thomas216]

The 2009 Knesset election's list of the Labour party:
1. Ehud Barak (b. 1942, former PM and current leader of the party, didn't participate in the primaries as the chairman of the party)
2. Isaac Herzog (b. 1960, current minister of Welfare and Social Services, son of former president of Israel and Labour MK Chaim Herzog)
3. Ofir Pines (b. 1961, former minister of internal affairs and a powerful figure in the party, I'd say one of the frontrunners in future Labour chairman elections).
4. Avishay Braverman (b. 1948, a man of the academy, former president of a university and the head of a powerful Knesset committee, resembling the committees of appropriations and of the budget in US congress combined)
5. Shelly Yachimovich (b. 1960, former journalist and a future prospect of the party)
6. Matan Vilnai (b. 1944, former general and Deputy Chief of Staff in the IDF, current deputy defence minister)
7. Eitan Cabel (b. 1959, didn’t participate in the primaries, slot reserved to the Labour general secretary)
8. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (b. 1936, minister of National Infrastructure, former Labour chairman and defence minister)
9. Yuli Tamir (b. 1954, minister of education, 9th slot reserved to women, otherwise would have been 10th)
10. Amir Peretz (b. 1952, former Labour chairman and defence minister during the last war)
11. Daniel Ben-Simon (b. 1953, a new-comer, former journalist)
12. Shalon Simhon (b. 1956, minister of Agriculture, the slot reserved to the Moshavim, a rural sector in Israel)
13. Orit Noked (b. 1952, the slot reserved to the Kibbutzim, traditionaly a pro-Labour sector)
14. Einat Vilf (b. 1970)

Most polls today shows the ILP with 7-8 seats though I won’t be surprised if it get up to 12 seats.
All in all can't say I'm surprised with the primaries results.