OR: Riley Research: Obama Leads OR by 14%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Oregon President by Riley Research on 2008-10-24

Summary: D: 48%, R: 34%, I: 4%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

First off, who will you most likely vote for in the upcoming presidential election? I'm going to read a list of candidates, and please tell me who you are most likely to vote for. (Very or somewhat likely?)

Democratic party candidate Barack Obama

Republican party candidate John McCain

Constitution party candidate Chuck Baldwin

Libertarian party candidate Bob Barr

Pacific Green party candidate Cynthia McKinney

or Peace party candidate Ralph Nader

VOTED FIRST REGISTERED TO LIKELY

GENDER PARTY COUNTY AGE VOTING HISTORY TIME VOTE VOTE PRES

————————— —————————————— ———————————————————————— ———————————————————————— ———————————————————————— —————————————— —————————————— ————————

— HAVE JOHN

FE WILL C/E SO CO 18- 25- 35- 45- BFOR '06- NOT BFOR AFTR BRCK MC

Total MALE MALE DEM REP OTHR PDX VLY OR OR AST 24 34 44 64 65+ 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 0/4 2006 '08 VOTD 2006 2006 2006 OBMA CAIN

————— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ———— ————

Total Participants 499 275 224 212 174 113 201 138 48 59 32 31 54 82 221 111 67 67 119 202 44 415 40 44 415 31 53 241 171

55% 45% 42% 35% 23% 40% 28% 10% 12% 6% 6% 11% 16% 44% 22% 13% 13% 24% 40% 9% 83% 8% 9% 83% 6% 11% 48% 34%

Barack Obama 48% 52% 43% 77% 10% 53% 52% 49% 33% 46% 47% 65% 56% 40% 52% 40% 51% 40% 45% 52% 48% 47% 60% 50% 47% 52% 55% 100% -

Obama - Very 41 44 38 66 8 45 45 44 25 41 34 52 50 37 43 34 40 37 38 45 41 39 57 43 40 45 47 85 -

Obama - Somewhat 7 8 6 11 2 8 7 5 8 5 13 13 6 4 9 5 10 3 7 8 7 8 3 7 7 6 8 15 -

John McCain 34% 31% 38% 9% 75% 19% 29% 39% 44% 32% 31% 23% 31% 34% 31% 46% 28% 45% 39% 34% 18% 37% 22% 18% 37% 29% 19% - 100%

McCain - Very 31 28 35 8 69 17 25 37 40 32 28 16 24 32 29 44 22 42 35 33 11 35 17 11 34 23 13 - 91

McCain - Somewhat 3 3 4 1 6 3 4 2 4 - 3 6 7 2 2 2 6 3 3 1 7 2 5 7 2 6 6 - 9

Miscellaneous 4% 2% 6% 2% 3% 8% 4% 3% 6% 5% - 3% - 9% 4% 2% 6% 6% 3% 2% 7% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% - -

Barr - Very 1 0 1 - 1 1 0 1 - 2 - - - 2 - 1 - 1 - 0 2 0 - 2 1 - - - -

Nader - Very 0 - 1 - - 2 1 - - - - - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 - 0 - - 0 - - - -

Nader - Somewhat 0 - 0 - - 1 0 - - - - 3 - - - - 1 - - - - - 3 - - 3 - - -

Miscellaneous 3 1 4 2 2 4 2 2 6 3 - - - 4 4 1 3 4 3 1 5 3 3 2 3 - 4 - -

Undecided / Refused 14% 15% 12% 11% 13% 19% 14% 9% 17% 17% 22% 10% 13% 17% 14% 13% 15% 9% 14% 11% 27% 12% 13% 27% 12% 16% 23% - -

Undecided/Don't know 12 13 10 9 11 18 11 8 17 14 19 10 13 13 13 9 12 9 13 9 23 11 10 23 11 16 17 - -

Refused 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 - 3 3 - - 4 1 4 3 - 1 2 5 1 3 5 1 - 6 - -

Chi Square 12.67 240.83 32.38 68.39 47.62 38.49 35.58 412.00

.178 .001 .641 .001 .093 .003 .008 .001

[Alcon]

Riley (R/Sucks)

This may be the first poll ever where Riley didn't badly underestimate the Democrat.