Winthrop/ETV: McCain leads in SC, Obama in NC and VA

[Tender Branson]

SC:

McCain - 55.1
Obama - 34.9

NC:

Obama - 44.6
McCain - 44.2

VA:

Obama - 44.6
McCain - 43.6

The data represent responses from 2026 individual likely voters from South Carolina, North Carolina  and Virginia gathered between September 28 and October 19, 2008. These include:

    * 617 respondents from SC (margin of error +/- 3.94% at the 95% confidence level)


    * 744 respondents from NC (margin of error +/- 3.59% at the 95% confidence level)


    * 665 respondents from VA (margin of error +/- 3.8% at the 95% confidence level)

http://www.scetv.org/index.php/winthrop/results/15/15/23

[Aizen]

Gutter trash

[tokar]

Gutter trash

Ya know, at some point someone has to accept some poll.

Back when we were kids playing sports, we used to either swing a baseball and miss, or flub up a billiards shot, or tap a golf ball the wrong way on mini-put, or gutter ball in bowling and we could claim "oooh that was just a practice shot" and everyone would be up in arms for a bit until we messed up again.  In other words, the "practice shot" claim was useful to get a second shot, but even the second shot revealed the true nature of our abilities.

How many times can we claim "practice shot", or "junk poll", with new polls?  Seriously?

[Eraserhead]

LOL

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gutter trash

Ya know, at some point someone has to accept some poll.

Back when we were kids playing sports, we used to either swing a baseball and miss, or flub up a billiards shot, or tap a golf ball the wrong way on mini-put, or gutter ball in bowling and we could claim "oooh that was just a practice shot" and everyone would be up in arms for a bit until we messed up again.  In other words, the "practice shot" claim was useful to get a second shot, but even the second shot revealed the true nature of our abilities.

How many times can we claim "practice shot", or "junk poll", with new polls?  Seriously?

As long as they are from unknown firms taken over such a ridiculous time period. And it seems a majority of polls this year are sh!t.

[Aizen]

Gutter trash

Ya know, at some point someone has to accept some poll.

Back when we were kids playing sports, we used to either swing a baseball and miss, or flub up a billiards shot, or tap a golf ball the wrong way on mini-put, or gutter ball in bowling and we could claim "oooh that was just a practice shot" and everyone would be up in arms for a bit until we messed up again.  In other words, the "practice shot" claim was useful to get a second shot, but even the second shot revealed the true nature of our abilities.

How many times can we claim "practice shot", or "junk poll", with new polls?  Seriously?

*Sigh*

"gathered between September 28 and October 19, 2008"

[cinyc]

Gutter trash

Ya know, at some point someone has to accept some poll.

Back when we were kids playing sports, we used to either swing a baseball and miss, or flub up a billiards shot, or tap a golf ball the wrong way on mini-put, or gutter ball in bowling and we could claim "oooh that was just a practice shot" and everyone would be up in arms for a bit until we messed up again.  In other words, the "practice shot" claim was useful to get a second shot, but even the second shot revealed the true nature of our abilities.

How many times can we claim "practice shot", or "junk poll", with new polls?  Seriously?

As long as they are from unknown firms taken over such a ridiculous time period. And it seems a majority of polls this year are sh!t.

Winthrop is not an unknown firm.  It's a uni pollster from South Carolina (perhaps not much better than a totally unknown pollster).  They polled some southern states in the primary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gutter trash

Ya know, at some point someone has to accept some poll.

Back when we were kids playing sports, we used to either swing a baseball and miss, or flub up a billiards shot, or tap a golf ball the wrong way on mini-put, or gutter ball in bowling and we could claim "oooh that was just a practice shot" and everyone would be up in arms for a bit until we messed up again.  In other words, the "practice shot" claim was useful to get a second shot, but even the second shot revealed the true nature of our abilities.

How many times can we claim "practice shot", or "junk poll", with new polls?  Seriously?

As long as they are from unknown firms taken over such a ridiculous time period. And it seems a majority of polls this year are sh!t.

Winthrop is not an unknown firm.  It's a uni pollster from South Carolina (perhaps not much better than a totally unknown pollster).  They polled some southern states in the primary.

So yes, not much better.

[opebo]

Regardless of the quality of this poll, its results are reasonable - there is little doubt that South Carolina is solid McCain, North Carolina likely McCain, and Virginia a complete tossup.

[Lunar]

Regardless of the quality of this poll, its results are reasonable - there is little doubt that South Carolina is solid McCain, North Carolina likely McCain, and Virginia a complete tossup.

Opebo, I'm surprised by you.  I clicked on this post expecting a mini-mini-racism lecture and I got a reasonable post  


Too much opium from the northern hill tribes?



I'm still working on figure out VA.  McCain's got a half-decent operation there (relative to his other organizations), probably his third best among states >4 EV's, as far as I can tell (after OH, PA).  But simultaneously, he is still dwarfed by Obama's campaign. 

But still, the difference that a good organization makes (a better organization on the X axis measured against increased votes on the Y axis) is probably going to yield significant diminishing returns, so a solid organization that can pack a stuffed office here and there is probably enough to make him competitive.  It's not as ideal as an overflowing, kids-on-the-street-because-there's-not-enough-room-to-make-calls situation that Obama has (I just biked by a local office of some kind at 9 pm on my way to food and callers were on their cell phones with a script in front of them on the sidewalk), but it's not as bad as McCain's operations in Colorado, which I view as a complete failure.