Rasmussen State Polling (10/23) - GA, LA, MN, WA

[Sam Spade]

GA, MN and WA were conducted on 10/22.  LA on 10/21.

Georgia
McCain 51%
Obama 46%

Louisiana
McCain 57%
Obama 41%

Minnesota
McCain 41%
Obama 56%

Washington
McCain 43%
Obama 54%

Enjoy...

[Lief 🗽]

All of those look about right.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Minnesota = swing state!

Signed,

- Rowan Brandon

[Eraserhead]

Wait, I thought Rowan said Minnesota was a tossup?

[Boris]

GA?

[J. J.]

Nothing unexpected.

[Ronnie]

I think these numbers are pretty good.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't suppose Sam would be willing to post the racial breakdowns in that GA poll, so that we can kind of get an idea of what Rasmussen thinks black turnout will be and how many whites need to swing to Obama for to win?

[Sam Spade]

I don't suppose Sam would be willing to post the racial breakdowns in that GA poll, so that we can kind of get an idea of what Rasmussen thinks black turnout will be and how many whites need to swing to Obama for to win?

I can't tell you anything because it looks like to me that the poll won't be posted until tomorrow morning.

[Sam Spade]

I don't suppose Sam would be willing to post the racial breakdowns in that GA poll, so that we can kind of get an idea of what Rasmussen thinks black turnout will be and how many whites need to swing to Obama for to win?

I can't tell you anything because it looks like to me that the poll won't be posted until tomorrow morning.

My best guess breakdown of the sample is:

White 68%
Black 29%
Other 3%

White 70-26-1-3
Black 6-92-0-2
Other 39-61-0-0

[MR maverick]

Come on white folks get of your racial crap and do the right thing LOL Obama can win GA and should win that state its a shame that his skin color is preventing that.   Its not like these people actually like McCain and after his little rant attacking Bush they should stay at home and let McCain eat cake.

[Franzl]

Come on white folks get of your racial crap and do the right thing LOL Obama can win GA and should win that state its a shame that his skin color is preventing that.   Its not like these people actually like McCain and after his little rant attacking Bush they should stay at home and let McCain eat cake.

why "should" Obama win Georgia?

[MR maverick]

He should, Ga is kinda like Nc in a way.
 In that during tough economic times these states can become blue.

BIll Clinton won Ga if I remember right?
 
I bet Hillary would carry it assuming she would get the black vote at high levels.

[Franzl]

He should, Ga is kinda like Nc in a way.
 In that during tough economic times these states can become blue.

BIll Clinton won Ga if I remember right?
 
I bet Hillary would carry it assuming she would get the black vote at high levels.

North Carolina is very different, lol.

And concerning Georgia in 1992.....first and primarily...Bill Clinton was a southern democrat, meaning that naturally...the South liked him more than they would a generic democrat. And secondly, Ross Perot was also in the race...and considering Clinton's small margin of victory...that could have made the difference, although I'm not sure in that respect...from which candidate Perot took more votes in Georgia....but my point stands anyway...there is no plausible way to compare Bill Clinton to Barack Obama.

And no..Hillary would most certainly not win Georgia...seeing as it's highly unlikely that Hillary would draw so many blacks to the polls.

[Rowan]

Wait, I thought Rowan said Minnesota was a tossup?

The poll was taken the same night(last night) that an Obama +7-8 sample came on the tracker. Thus with a good national night will mean a good night in states for Obama. Same thing for the GA poll.

[Alcon]

Wait, I thought Rowan said Minnesota was a tossup?

The poll was taken the same night(last night) that an Obama +7-8 sample came on the tracker. Thus with a good national night will mean a good night in states for Obama. Same thing for the GA poll.

That makes a lot of overly-concrete assumptions about noise in polls.

[Lunar]

Isn't Rowan one of those "lag" proponents anyway?  Can't have it both ways.

[Rowan]

Isn't Rowan one of those "lag" proponents anyway?  Can't have it both ways.

I'm a "whatever-helps-my-candidate" proponent.

[MR maverick]

He should, Ga is kinda like Nc in a way.
 In that during tough economic times these states can become blue.

BIll Clinton won Ga if I remember right?
 
I bet Hillary would carry it assuming she would get the black vote at high levels.

North Carolina is very different, lol.

And concerning Georgia in 1992.....first and primarily...Bill Clinton was a southern democrat, meaning that naturally...the South liked him more than they would a generic democrat. And secondly, Ross Perot was also in the race...and considering Clinton's small margin of victory...that could have made the difference, although I'm not sure in that respect...from which candidate Perot took more votes in Georgia....but my point stands anyway...there is no plausible way to compare Bill Clinton to Barack Obama.

And no..Hillary would most certainly not win Georgia...seeing as it's highly unlikely that Hillary would draw so many blacks to the polls.

I don't know about that you are factoring in the bitter fight Hillary had with Obama.

If Hillary had locked everything on super Tuesday and picked Obama as Vp AND the stock market crash etc would have took place like it is now .. I could see Ga being a toss up.  Iam considering alot of factors though.

[Dan the Roman]

Everyone on this thread is forgetting that Clinton won Georgia with 43.5% of the vote in 1992. Obama here is likely to do better than Clinton ever did in the state. He just lacks Perot stealing off McCain's voters.

[Alcon]

Isn't Rowan one of those "lag" proponents anyway?  Can't have it both ways.

I'm a "whatever-helps-my-candidate" proponent.

Being wrong about polls helps your candidate? 

[MR maverick]

Everyone on this thread is forgetting that Clinton won Georgia with 43.5% of the vote in 1992. Obama here is likely to do better than Clinton ever did in the state. He just lacks Perot stealing off McCain's voters.

Bob Barr can't even muster Perot type of support in his own state.  What a joke he has been considering how much his followers hyped him up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Isn't Rowan one of those "lag" proponents anyway?  Can't have it both ways.

I'm a "whatever-helps-my-candidate" proponent.

Thanks for the admittance uber-hack. Hack hack hack.

[Lunar]

Isn't Rowan one of those "lag" proponents anyway?  Can't have it both ways.

I'm a "whatever-helps-my-candidate" proponent.

Being wrong about polls helps your candidate? 

Alcon raises a good point,  Being stupidly wrong on internet forums yields questionable utility to your candidate.

[Gustaf]

Isn't Rowan one of those "lag" proponents anyway?  Can't have it both ways.

I'm a "whatever-helps-my-candidate" proponent.

Thanks for the admittance uber-hack. Hack hack hack.

"Hack hack hack."?