Obama has good chance to win Georgia

[TheresNoMoney]

Why does everyone think Obama is such a longshot to win Georgia? Early voting has been going on since 9/22, and the demographics look very strong for him.  Blacks make up 35.52% of the 892,230 voters thus far! If this continues to hold as it has for the past month:

35% Black voters @ 95% = 33.25%
61% White voters @23% = 14.03%
4%   Other voters @ 70% =  2.80%

Total                                  = 50.08%

Obama only needs about 23%-27% of the white vote to win this state!

[Tender Branson]

How do you know that Blacks will also make up 35-36% on Election Day and not 25% ?

(Allthough I think the share will be higher than 25%, maybe close to 30%.)

[panda_priest]

I live in GA and I would be so happy if he wins here.

[Alcon]

Only if we assume that early voters aren't subtracting from election-day electorate, or something like that.  Winning Georgia would require low evangelical white turnout, period.

[TheresNoMoney]

How do you know that Blacks will also make up 35-36% on Election Day and not 25% ?

Early voting has been going on for over a month now, and black percentage has held remarkably steady at 35%-37% the whole time.  More than half the state will have already voted before Election Day. The overall black percentage won't dip much, if at all.

[Alcon]

How do you know that Blacks will also make up 35-36% on Election Day and not 25% ?

Early voting has been going on for over a month now, and black percentage has held remarkably steady at 35%-37% the whole time.  More than half the state will have already voted before Election Day. The overall black percentage won't dip much, if at all.

So, white voters are just gonna not show up, or what?  Obama's campaign has been heavily targeting blacks for early voting.

[TheresNoMoney]

So, white voters are just gonna not show up, or what?  Obama's campaign has been heavily targeting blacks for early voting.

Good lord man, I'm just saying that Obama has a very plausible shot to win Georgia. Blacks will make up 30%-35% of the electorate (I think closer to 35%). Whites will show up, but at a lower rate than blacks.

Georgia will be the first state to flip after Indiana.

[Alcon]

So, white voters are just gonna not show up, or what?  Obama's campaign has been heavily targeting blacks for early voting.

Good lord man, I'm just saying that Obama has a very plausible shot to win Georgia. Blacks will make up 30%-35% of the electorate (I think closer to 35%). Whites will show up, but at a lower rate than blacks.

Well, OK.  I disagree, but we'll see.

[TheresNoMoney]

And even so, Obama only needs to win about 25% of whites to win the state. That seems very possible to me.

[Alcon]

Well, my disagreement is not that Obama can get a quarter of whites, it's that the black vote isn't going to decline more than 1% or 2%.

[Adam Griffin]

Everybody gets emotional at the mentioning of Georgia flipping. I forgot where I posted it, but whites have saw their percentage of the electorate drop from 68% in 2004 to 63% in 2008, which is one good sign. The other thing is that from living in a traditionally very strong Republican area of GA (even when the Democrats controlled GA), that I've encountered many white people who are staying home on Election Day because they think both of the candidates are crap.

[Lief 🗽]

I think that, with Barr getting ~2-3%, Obama only really needs 48 or 49%. If he can get 30% among non-black voters and keep the black vote total at 30% or more, then he wins Georgia. I really don't understand why he isn't throwing some money at it. Winning the state is definitely within the realm of possibility, and he'll probably carry Martin across the finish line even if he comes up a bit short in the Presidential race.

[JSojourner]

If I were McCain, I'd be a lot more worried about Georgia if Barr were polling well there.  Naderesque numbers from 2000 maybe...

Georgia should be safe McCain unless there's a major meltdown.  I just don't see fundamentalists and other southern conservatives staying home in large enough numbers to help Obama.

[Brittain33]

Georgia should be safe McCain unless there's a major meltdown.  I just don't see fundamentalists and other southern conservatives staying home in large enough numbers to help Obama.

A big chunk of the Republican base in Georgia is non-evangelical transplants to suburban Atlanta who vote Republican on the basic government-does-nothing-for-me platform and they aren't going to come out because of Sarah Palin or Supreme Court judges. Ditto for the Charlotte suburbs.

[JSojourner]

Georgia should be safe McCain unless there's a major meltdown.  I just don't see fundamentalists and other southern conservatives staying home in large enough numbers to help Obama.

A big chunk of the Republican base in Georgia is non-evangelical transplants to suburban Atlanta who vote Republican on the basic government-does-nothing-for-me platform and they aren't going to come out because of Sarah Palin or Supreme Court judges. Ditto for the Charlotte suburbs.

That could be what's making Georgia a shade closer than, say, Alabama or Mississippi.  But enough for a win?  I'm not sure. 

I am curious though -- and maybe a Georgian or someone with an encyclopaedic mind like Sam Spade can help me.  Why did Clarke, Taliaferro and Hancock counties go so heavily for Kerry in 2004? I get Dekalb and Fulton Counties...but these others?

[WalterMitty]

the funny thing is....on the off chance that obama doesnt happen to win ga, you will never see this thread again.  no one will bump it.  mention it.  anything.

if i make a bad prediction, you hear about it for years and years and years.

[TheresNoMoney]

the funny thing is....on the off chance that obama doesnt happen to win ga, you will never see this thread again.  no one will bump it.  mention it.  anything.

Go ahead and bump it.

I am not predicting that Obama will win, but I am predicting that the race will be within 2%-3% either way. That is all this thread is saying, that it will be very close.

[WalterMitty]

the funny thing is....on the off chance that obama doesnt happen to win ga, you will never see this thread again.  no one will bump it.  mention it.  anything.

Go ahead and bump it.

I am not predicting that Obama will win, but I am predicting that the race will be within 2%-3% either way. That is all this thread is saying, that it will be very close.

i wont bump it.  it isnt my thing.

[TheresNoMoney]

i wont bump it.  it isnt my thing.

Go ahead. My prediction is that the race will be within 2%-3%, and Obama has about a 40% chance to win.

[Speed of Sound]

i wont bump it.  it isnt my thing.

Go ahead. My prediction is that the race will be within 2%-3%, and Obama has about a 40% chance to win.

Phew.....40%? Ehhh.....I just dont see the demos holding up....Ill say, 20%.

[TheresNoMoney]

Phew.....40%? Ehhh.....I just dont see the demos holding up....Ill say, 20%.

The toughest thing to predict is how much of the white vote he'll get. If it's over 25%, he'll have a good shot.

[Torie]

Georgia should be safe McCain unless there's a major meltdown.  I just don't see fundamentalists and other southern conservatives staying home in large enough numbers to help Obama.

A big chunk of the Republican base in Georgia is non-evangelical transplants to suburban Atlanta who vote Republican on the basic government-does-nothing-for-me platform and they aren't going to come out because of Sarah Palin or Supreme Court judges. Ditto for the Charlotte suburbs.

That could be what's making Georgia a shade closer than, say, Alabama or Mississippi.  But enough for a win?  I'm not sure. 

I am curious though -- and maybe a Georgian or someone with an encyclopaedic mind like Sam Spade can help me.  Why did Clarke, Taliaferro and Hancock counties go so heavily for Kerry in 2004? I get Dekalb and Fulton Counties...but these others?

Clarke:  28% black, home of all of those commielib professors and graduate students at the University of Georgia in Athens.

Taliaferro: 60% black
Hancock: 78% black

[??????????]

McCain wins Georgia, hands down.  The demographics do not at all favor Obama barring some massive collapse. And McCain is recovering very well nationally over the past week.

[Lief 🗽]

McCain wins Georgia, hands down.  The demographics do not at all favor Obama barring some massive collapse. And McCain is recovering very well nationally over the past week.

Not really: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php?xml=/flashcharts/content/xml/08USPresGEMvO.xml&choices=Obama,McCain&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=2008-10-01&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=

[TheresNoMoney]

The last two polls on this race have Obama down by 2% (Democracy Corps) and 5% (Rasmussen).