Actually, Tokar, Q was 6 points off for Casey in 2006 and about 7.5 off the margin. Muhlenburg, their general poll, was more off actually with the same gap as Zogby.
Keystone (which I thing is F & M) came closest.
I think I made pretty clear in my post that I was not trying to show that the margins were accurate, rather the TRENDS were correct.You are fool to take these margins in the polls as "predictors" for the actual margin of victory.
Again, I don't think pollsters are trying to accurately predict the margin of victory, rather they are making polls to
gauge the temperature of the race. And right now the temperature says
STRONG OBAMA, and
every pollster is showing this exact trend.
If pollsters were out there to accurately predict the exact margin of victory they would do all their polling internally and then on the last day they would release a poll. The fact that pollsters release polls like every 3 days should be a pretty clear indication that polls are meant to be used as a temperature gauge.
If the actual margin ends up being +7, +8 or even as high as +15, it pretty much shows the pollsters were all correct in identifying PA is
STRONG OBAMA.
Again, it would be one thing if Quinnipiac was polling PA at +20 Obama or +20 McCain right now. But with ALL...OTHER...POLLING...OUTLETS polling PA at +10 Obama I think Quinnipiac is doing a good job of gauging the race as it is.