% chance obama wins the following 'battleground' states?

[TheGlobalizer]

[I'll just start by saying Obama has a less than 10% chance of taking states like North Dakota, West Virginia, and Georgia.

Watch out for Georgia! Early voting has been going on for over a month (since 9/22) and he is leading among early voters according to the polls. Blacks are 35.5% of the early vote! Georgia is going to be extremely close on November 4th.

Georgia is not going to be "close" by any reasonable definition of the word.

[Lief 🗽]

[I'll just start by saying Obama has a less than 10% chance of taking states like North Dakota, West Virginia, and Georgia.

Watch out for Georgia! Early voting has been going on for over a month (since 9/22) and he is leading among early voters according to the polls. Blacks are 35.5% of the early vote! Georgia is going to be extremely close on November 4th.

Georgia is not going to be "close" by any reasonable definition of the word.

We'll see. Obama is probably leading by a good margin (~5%) among the votes already cast.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

new hampshire - 93%
pennsylvania - 98%
virginia - 92%
north carolina - 63%
georgia - 8%
florida - 74%
west va. - 4%
ohio - 71%
michigan - 98%
missouri - 63%
indiana - 35%
north dakota - 14%
new mexico - 92%
colorado - 90%

So speaketh Lord Nate Silver. The Gospel of the Lord.

[opebo]

new hampshire: 90%
pennsylvania: 60%
virginia: 50%
north carolina: 20%
georgia: 1%
florida: 20%
west va.: 1%
ohio: 30%
michigan: 90%
missouri: 30%
indiana: 10%
north dakota: 1%
new mexico: 80%
colorado: 60%

[Lunar]

That's pretty much just your rating for how racist each state is, huh? 

[Eraserhead]

new hampshire- 85%
pennsylvania- 80%
virginia- 65%
north carolina- 50%
georgia- 15%
florida- 50%
west va.- 20%
ohio- 50%
michigan- 95%
missouri- 55%
indiana- 40%
north dakota- 20%
new mexico- 95%
colorado- 70%

[opebo]

That's pretty much just your rating for how racist each state is, huh? 

Yes, after all that is what will decide this election.   The contest can be summed up this way:  Race (McCain) vs. Everything Else (Obama).  Hence the tossup.

[Fritz]

new hampshire 90%
pennsylvania 100%
virginia 50%
north carolina 35%
georgia 0%
florida 45%
west va. 25%
ohio 60%
michigan 100%
missouri 40%
indiana 30%
north dakota 05%
new mexico 95%
colorado 75%

nevada 55%

[RJ]

Wow, according to J.J., this election's only a 50-50 tossup.

I've been calling this election as close for 6 weeks.

PA will be close, but I give it to Obama.

How many times have we heard "McCain will be ahead by the end of the week" or "McCain leads in PA tomorrow" and never had it come to fruition? And where is this infamous weekend bounce you keep claiming Obama is getting? "Calling this election" and making predictions such as these  and having a less than 50% success rate make people such as myself question your credibility on this matter.

[Horus]

new hampshire - 90%
pennsylvania - 95%
virginia - 80%
north carolina - 60%
georgia - 25%
florida - 65%
west va. - 10%
ohio - 50%
michigan - 95%
missouri - 50%
indiana - 35%
north dakota - 20%
new mexico - 80%
colorado - 75%

[TomC]

new hampshire 75%
pennsylvania 80%
virginia 80%
north carolina 45%
georgia 20%
florida 48%
west va. 35%
ohio 40%
michigan 85%
missouri 40%
indiana 30%
north dakota 25%
new mexico 80%
colorado 75%

[elcorazon]

new hampshire 88%
pennsylvania 90%
virginia  85%
north carolina 48%
georgia  8%
florida  55%
west va.  9%
ohio  52%
michigan  90%
missouri 49%
indiana  40%
north dakota  19%
new mexico  88%
colorado  79%

[gorkay]

NH: close to 100%
PA: 85%
VA: 75%
NC: 60%
GA: 40%
FL: 65%
WV: 35%
OH: 60%
MI: 95%
MO: 55%
IN: 50%
ND: 35%
NM: 90%
CO: 85%