% chance obama wins the following 'battleground' states?

[WalterMitty]

new hampshire
pennsylvania
virginia
north carolina
georgia
florida
west va.
ohio
michigan
missouri
indiana
north dakota
new mexico
colorado

[Franzl]

new hampshire 85%
pennsylvania 95%
virginia 50%
north carolina 30%
georgia 10%
florida 40%
west va. 10%
ohio 40%
michigan 99%
missouri 40%
indiana 15%
north dakota 15%
new mexico 85%
colorado 85%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

new hampshire: 99.9%
pennsylvania: 75%
virginia: 60%
north carolina: 40%
georgia: 15%
florida: 45%
west va.: 20%
ohio: 55%
michigan: 99.99%
missouri: 52%
indiana: 38%
north dakota: 18%
new mexico: 80%
colorado: 70%

[Boris]

new hampshire -95%
pennsylvania- 99%
virginia - 60%
north carolina - 45%
georgia - 0%
florida - 50%
west va. - 0%
ohio - 49%
michigan - 99%
missouri - 51%
indiana - 20%
north dakota - 0%
new mexico - 99%
colorado - 75%

[Lief 🗽]

new hampshire- 98%
pennsylvania- 98%
virginia- 80%
north carolina- 50%
georgia- 35%
florida- 50%
west va.- 15%
ohio- 45%
michigan- 98%
missouri- 50%
indiana- 40%
north dakota- 20%
new mexico- 98%
colorado- 90%

[Likely Voter]

I will order them (and add nevada)

michigan  99%
new hampshire  95%
new mexico  90%
pennsylvania 80%
colorado 75% (this gets you to 273)
-------
virginia  70% 
nevada  63%
florida  58%
north carolina 55%
missouri 54%
ohio 52% (if he wins all above = 364)
-----------------
indiana 40%
north dakota 25%
west va. 20%
georgia 10%

[Mr.Jones]

new hampshire - 85 %
pennsylvania - 85 %
virginia - 75 %
north carolina - 50 %
georgia - 10 %
florida - 50 %
west va - 35 %
ohio - 50 %
michigan - 90 %
missouri - 60 %
indiana - 20 %
north dakota - 20 %
new mexico - 75 %
colorado - 70 %

So my conclusion is Obama is definitely getting NH + PA + VA + MI + NM + CO

[Ronnie]

new hampshire - 80%
pennsylvania - 90%
virginia - 70%
north carolina - 50%
georgia - 20%
florida - 50%
west va. - 10%
ohio - 50%
michigan - 90%
missouri - 50%
indiana - 30%
north dakota - 20%
new mexico - 75%
colorado - 75%

[WalterMitty]

new hampshire: 80%
pennsylvania: 80%
virginia: 65%
north carolina: 40%
georgia: 25%
florida: 55%
west va.: 20%
ohio: 55%
michigan: 85%
missouri: 51%
indiana: 40%
north dakota: 35%
new mexico: 70%
colorado: 65%

[memphis]

Many of these states are not battleground states. Short of a major October surprise which is not, at this point, quanitifiable, McCain is not winning PA or MI. Period. Similarly, Obama is not winning GA or WV. End of Story.

[Josh/Devilman88]

new hampshire - 80%
pennsylvania - 90%
virginia - 70%
north carolina - 50%
georgia - 20%
florida - 50%
west va. - 10%
ohio - 50%
michigan - 90%
missouri - 50%
indiana - 30%
north dakota - 20%
new mexico - 75%
colorado - 75%

[Ban my account ffs!]

new hampshire--90%
pennsylvania--95%
virginia--60%
north carolina--50%
georgia--33%
florida--50%
west va.--40%
ohio --55%
michigan--95%
missouri--50%
indiana--40%
north dakota--25%
new mexico--85%
colorado--66%

[Adam Griffin]

New Hampshire: 85%
Pennsylvania: 80%
Virginia: 75%
North Carolina: 40%
Georgia: 10%
Florida: 50%
West Virginia: 20%
Ohio: 60%
Michigan: 95%
Missouri: 50%
Indiana: 30%
North Dakota: 15%
New Mexico: 95%
Colorado: 75%

[Hyperfast]

New Hampshire: 90%
Pennsylvania: 80%
Virginia: 65%
North Carolina: 35%
Georgia: 10%
Florida: 50%
West Virginia: 15%
Ohio: 55%
Michigan: 95%
Missouri: 40%
Indiana: 35%
North Dakota: 15%
New Mexico: 90%
Colorado: 70%

[TheGlobalizer]

Gut numbers.

new hampshire 60%
pennsylvania 60%
virginia 45%
north carolina 30%
georgia 1%
florida 40%
west va. 5%
ohio 40%
michigan 65%
missouri 50%
indiana 30%
north dakota 30%
new mexico 50%
colorado 50%

[DownWithTheLeft]

65% new hampshire
55% pennsylvania
30% virginia
20% north carolina
10% georgia
25% florida
<5% west va.
50% ohio
80% michigan
20% missouri
30% indiana
10% north dakota
85% new mexico
50% colorado

[Daniel Z]

New Hampshire 75%
Pennsylvania 65%
Virginia 35%
North Carolina 20%
Georgia 10%
Florida 40%
West VA 15%
Ohio 35%
Michigan 90%
Missouri 50%
Indiana 25%
North Dakota 5%
New Mexico 60%
Colorado 55%

[© tweed]

new hampshire: 93%
pennsylvania: 97%
virginia: 84%
north carolina: 56%
georgia: 12%
florida: 58%
west va.: 11%
ohio: 41%
michigan: 98%
missouri: 52%
indiana: 24%
north dakota: 17%
new mexico: 89%
colorado: 79%

[J. J.]

new hampshire 50%
pennsylvania 65%
virginia  50%
north carolina  40%
georgia  10%
florida  45%
west va. 10%
ohio   40%
michigan 75%
missouri  50%
indiana  42.5%
north dakota  40%
new mexico  75%
colorado  50%

[TheresNoMoney]

new hampshire 90%
pennsylvania 90%
virginia 70%
north carolina 55%
georgia  40%
florida  55%
west va. 20%
ohio  65%
michigan 95%
missouri 50%
indiana 40%
north dakota 25%
new mexico 80%
colorado 75%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

new hampshire - 80%
pennsylvania - 90%
virginia - 60%
north carolina - 50%
georgia - 20%
florida - 55%
west va. - 15%
ohio - 50%
michigan - 90%
missouri - 45%
indiana -  35%
north dakota -  35%
new mexico -  95%
colorado -  80%

[RJ]

new hampshire 50%
pennsylvania 65%
virginia  50%
north carolina  40%
georgia  10%
florida  45%
west va. 10%
ohio   40%
michigan 75%
missouri  50%
indiana  42.5%
north dakota  40%
new mexico  75%
colorado  50%

Wow, according to J.J., this election's only a 50-50 tossup.

I'll just start by saying Obama has a less than 10% chance of taking states like North Dakota, West Virginia, and Georgia. His chances of taking Indiana and Missouri are a little better, probably around 25% each. Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are in the bag, about 90% each. New Mexico is around 80% and Colorado is about the same, perhaps a little less.

The other 4(NC, OH, VA, FL) may be irrelevant if the first 10 I mentioned hold to form, but Obama has a little better than a 50-50 chance in each, the strongest of which would be Virginia. The other 3 are as close to tossups as there are right now.

Of course, this is according to the data analyzed 10/22/08, almost 2 weeks from the election.

[ottermax]

new hampshire - 70%
pennsylvania - 80%
virginia - 60%
north carolina - 45%
georgia - 20%
florida - 45%
west va. - 10%
ohio - 40%
michigan - 95%
missouri - 50%
indiana -  30%
north dakota -  25%
new mexico -  95%
colorado -  60%

At this point at least...

[J. J.]

Wow, according to J.J., this election's only a 50-50 tossup.

I've been calling this election as close for 6 weeks.

PA will be close, but I give it to Obama.

[TheresNoMoney]

[I'll just start by saying Obama has a less than 10% chance of taking states like North Dakota, West Virginia, and Georgia.

Watch out for Georgia! Early voting has been going on for over a month (since 9/22) and he is leading among early voters according to the polls. Blacks are 35.5% of the early vote! Georgia is going to be extremely close on November 4th.