If Palin wants it, and she does, who could stop her from the Iowa Caucus in '12?

[Lunar]

She'd be like a super-charged, super-well connected, super-popular, beloved Huckabee.  Piss off the WSJ-type she might here and there, but she would raise insane amounts of money relative to her opponents.  Her grasp of national issues will only be better after this election and four years of prep-training.

I think she might be unbeatable in the '12 GOP primary, depending on what the country does in the next four years.

Jindal couldn't beat her in Iowa.  Romney couldn't any more than he could beat Huck.  I think Huck is done running for president himself.

We'll see, but I'd bet money that she'll take the caucus in '12, depending on the odds.

[Sam Spade]

Jindal could do it - maybe.  Crist - no.  Romney - lol.  Huckabee isn't interested, I agree.  And besides, he doesn't get the same type of enthusiasm she does among the same crowd.

Let's see who else has been talked about.  The Republican party will be so decimated in the Senate, I don't see anyone coming from there.

Huntsman?  Rossi if he gets elected, wouldn't play well there.  Pawlenty?  Somehow, I suspect he's not interested.  Sanford isn't smart enough.

Am I missing anyone?

[© tweed]

one thing to keep in mind about Palin is that her main attribute - perceived physical attractiveness - is likely to take a sharp downtown over the next handful of years.  she's 44 right now, iirc, which is near the age-cap for being a MILF.  could she retain MILF status at age 47-48?  conceivably, but it is hardly a given.

I don't see her being able to run any sort of national campaign.  she's shown nothing over the past few months to suggest that she has the neurological wherewithal to do so, and she may well understand her own limitations.

she could retain popularity with the "base," but I don't think she can get anywhere near 270 barring Obama facilitating the absolute destruction of the Western world.  but I suppose that's not what this thread is about...

Jindal is smarter and would be able to out-youth her (he'll only be ~40 at the time of Iowa) and will appeal better to the base. 



or something.

[Keystone Phil]

A lot can happen, people. Let's see if she even really wants it.

[bgwah]

one thing to keep in mind about Palin is that her main attribute - perceived physical attractiveness - is likely to take a sharp downtown over the next handful of years.  she's 44 right now, iirc, which is near the age-cap for being a MILF.  could she retain MILF status at age 47-48?  conceivably, but it is hardly a given.

I don't see her being able to run any sort of national campaign.  she's shown nothing over the past few months to suggest that she has the neurological wherewithal to do so, and she may well understand her own limitations.

she could retain popularity with the "base," but I don't think she can get anywhere near 270 barring Obama facilitating the absolute destruction of the Western world.  but I suppose that's not what this thread is about...

Jindal is smarter and would be able to out-youth her (he'll only be ~40 at the time of Iowa) and will appeal better to the base. 



or something.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14805.html

Won't be an issue for her. She'll just get plastic surgery if necessary.

[© tweed]

one thing to keep in mind about Palin is that her main attribute - perceived physical attractiveness - is likely to take a sharp downtown over the next handful of years.  she's 44 right now, iirc, which is near the age-cap for being a MILF.  could she retain MILF status at age 47-48?  conceivably, but it is hardly a given.

I don't see her being able to run any sort of national campaign.  she's shown nothing over the past few months to suggest that she has the neurological wherewithal to do so, and she may well understand her own limitations.

she could retain popularity with the "base," but I don't think she can get anywhere near 270 barring Obama facilitating the absolute destruction of the Western world.  but I suppose that's not what this thread is about...

Jindal is smarter and would be able to out-youth her (he'll only be ~40 at the time of Iowa) and will appeal better to the base. 



or something.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14805.html

Won't be an issue for her. She'll just get plastic surgery if necessary.

if she looks exactly the same in 10-15 years as she does now that would just be weird, not hot.

[Daniel Z]

I don't think Palin will be a factor if the GOP loses  this year. She may run, but I think she will be partialy blamed, especialy if Obama wins easily. Then again I'm a Democrat and if the Republicans really think that she is the best their party has to offer, then more power to them.

[Lunar]

Jindal could do it - maybe.  Crist - no.  Romney - lol.  Huckabee isn't interested, I agree.  And besides, he doesn't get the same type of enthusiasm she does among the same crowd.

Let's see who else has been talked about.  The Republican party will be so decimated in the Senate, I don't see anyone coming from there.

Huntsman?  Rossi if he gets elected, wouldn't play well there.  Pawlenty?  Somehow, I suspect he's not interested.  Sanford isn't smart enough.

Am I missing anyone?

I suppose it depends on who is willing to get behind the Palin train.  Ed Rollins would, but I don't know if he could muscle the entire operation himself. 

Jindal *might* be able to do it because the top brass, depending on the country's mood, might realize that Palin is not the one that could defeat Obama.  However, everyone knew that Huckabee wasn't the right one to win the '08 election but Iowa *still* went for Huck! 

I'm not sure if anyone could muscle out the amount of volunteer enthusiasm and money that Palin could for the Iowa caucus.  Jindal seems to me to be more of a New Hampshire type of guy, haha. 

I didn't say that Palin would get the nom, or that she would beat Obama, I'm just not sure if anyone could beat her in Iowa. 

Maybe there's someone like Haley Barbour that could give her a run for her money. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Rudy has joinrudy2012 already purchased. I don't know if he runs again, but if he does, he better hope the primary orders are changed so some state like Florida or New Jersey is the first to vote rather than Iowa. I wouldn't support Palin if she ran because I think she's in way over her head now. She's been vilified in the media, which is pretty unfair, but she's not ready for prime time. I bet she could win Iowa, but other than that, I doubt she is nominated unless our field is pretty bad in 2012.

[Workers' Friend]

Rudy has joinrudy2012 already purchased. I don't know if he runs again, but if he does, he better hope the primary orders are changed so some state like Florida or New Jersey is the first to vote rather than Iowa. I wouldn't support Palin if she ran because I think she's in way over her head now. She's been vilified in the media, which is pretty unfair, but she's not ready for prime time. I bet she could win Iowa, but other than that, I doubt she is nominated unless our field is pretty bad in 2012.

Even though Huckabee has his own TV show and it seems like he is about to go a route as a political commentator, I'd love to see Huckabee vs Rudy

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Rudy has joinrudy2012 already purchased. I don't know if he runs again, but if he does, he better hope the primary orders are changed so some state like Florida or New Jersey is the first to vote rather than Iowa. I wouldn't support Palin if she ran because I think she's in way over her head now. She's been vilified in the media, which is pretty unfair, but she's not ready for prime time. I bet she could win Iowa, but other than that, I doubt she is nominated unless our field is pretty bad in 2012.

Even though Huckabee has his own TV show and it seems like he is about to go a route as a political commentator, I'd love to see Huckabee vs Rudy

I really like Huckabee, and even though he's a populist and a social conservative, I'd be tempted to support him just because I feel so connected to him when he speaks. He is the best speaker the GOP has had since Reagan. But he's a big government guy, and goes against my beliefs. A Rudy v. Huckabee race would be interesting, but I wouldn't be surprised if neither of them run in 2012. Rudy did register his website and is still taking donation and Huckabee founded HuckPAC, but it's not clear that either wants to run.

[Workers' Friend]

Rudy has joinrudy2012 already purchased. I don't know if he runs again, but if he does, he better hope the primary orders are changed so some state like Florida or New Jersey is the first to vote rather than Iowa. I wouldn't support Palin if she ran because I think she's in way over her head now. She's been vilified in the media, which is pretty unfair, but she's not ready for prime time. I bet she could win Iowa, but other than that, I doubt she is nominated unless our field is pretty bad in 2012.

Even though Huckabee has his own TV show and it seems like he is about to go a route as a political commentator, I'd love to see Huckabee vs Rudy

I really like Huckabee, and even though he's a populist and a social conservative, I'd be tempted to support him just because I feel so connected to him when he speaks. He is the best speaker the GOP has had since Reagan. But he's a big government guy, and goes against my beliefs. A Rudy v. Huckabee race would be interesting, but I wouldn't be surprised if neither of them run in 2012. Rudy did register his website and is still taking donation and Huckabee founded HuckPAC, but it's not clear that either wants to run.

In fact, Huckabee is the man that brought brought me into The GOP. He is a good speech writer and leader.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Rudy has joinrudy2012 already purchased. I don't know if he runs again, but if he does, he better hope the primary orders are changed so some state like Florida or New Jersey is the first to vote rather than Iowa. I wouldn't support Palin if she ran because I think she's in way over her head now. She's been vilified in the media, which is pretty unfair, but she's not ready for prime time. I bet she could win Iowa, but other than that, I doubt she is nominated unless our field is pretty bad in 2012.

Even though Huckabee has his own TV show and it seems like he is about to go a route as a political commentator, I'd love to see Huckabee vs Rudy

I really like Huckabee, and even though he's a populist and a social conservative, I'd be tempted to support him just because I feel so connected to him when he speaks. He is the best speaker the GOP has had since Reagan. But he's a big government guy, and goes against my beliefs. A Rudy v. Huckabee race would be interesting, but I wouldn't be surprised if neither of them run in 2012. Rudy did register his website and is still taking donation and Huckabee founded HuckPAC, but it's not clear that either wants to run.

In fact, Huckabee is the man that brought brought me into The GOP. He is a good speech writer and leader.

He does have a base following that enabled him to win a few states during the primary season despite low cash on hand. His entire campaign was amazing in that he did it with barely any money at all. But his base is not that big as the populist movement within the GOP isn't that large.

[Workers' Friend]

Rudy has joinrudy2012 already purchased. I don't know if he runs again, but if he does, he better hope the primary orders are changed so some state like Florida or New Jersey is the first to vote rather than Iowa. I wouldn't support Palin if she ran because I think she's in way over her head now. She's been vilified in the media, which is pretty unfair, but she's not ready for prime time. I bet she could win Iowa, but other than that, I doubt she is nominated unless our field is pretty bad in 2012.

Even though Huckabee has his own TV show and it seems like he is about to go a route as a political commentator, I'd love to see Huckabee vs Rudy

I really like Huckabee, and even though he's a populist and a social conservative, I'd be tempted to support him just because I feel so connected to him when he speaks. He is the best speaker the GOP has had since Reagan. But he's a big government guy, and goes against my beliefs. A Rudy v. Huckabee race would be interesting, but I wouldn't be surprised if neither of them run in 2012. Rudy did register his website and is still taking donation and Huckabee founded HuckPAC, but it's not clear that either wants to run.

In fact, Huckabee is the man that brought brought me into The GOP. He is a good speech writer and leader.

He does have a base following that enabled him to win a few states during the primary season despite low cash on hand. His entire campaign was amazing in that he did it with barely any money at all. But his base is not that big as the populist movement within the GOP isn't that large.

True, hopefully if he runs again, he can get more money and have the same momentum. If he had as much money in the primaries as Obama now, he'd probably won almost every state in the nomination.

[Lunar]

Jindal maybe could win, but could he win the Iowa Caucus against Palin is the question. 

[Mr. Morden]

Insert standard "Mr. Morden is skeptical of Jindal giving up on the Louisiana governorship after just one term in order to run for president......he would have to skip reelection in Nov. 2011 if he wants to run in the 2012 primaries" post here.

[big bad fab]

Jindal could do it - maybe.  Crist - no.  Romney - lol.  Huckabee isn't interested, I agree.  And besides, he doesn't get the same type of enthusiasm she does among the same crowd.

Let's see who else has been talked about.  The Republican party will be so decimated in the Senate, I don't see anyone coming from there.

Huntsman?  Rossi if he gets elected, wouldn't play well there.  Pawlenty?  Somehow, I suspect he's not interested.  Sanford isn't smart enough.

Am I missing anyone?

What about John Thune ?
I mean, just in Iowa GOP primary.

As Romney will win in NH and will be the nominee, just to lose to Obama.
(The only uncertainty of the election: will Biden stay as VP, after many gaffes and after having irritated a lot The One)

[Jacobtm]

one thing to keep in mind about Palin is that her main attribute - perceived physical attractiveness - is likely to take a sharp downtown over the next handful of years.  she's 44 right now, iirc, which is near the age-cap for being a MILF.  could she retain MILF status at age 47-48?  conceivably, but it is hardly a given.

That's the thing; unless you're a complete knockout, you have no chance in Iowa.

[© tweed]

Insert standard "Mr. Morden is skeptical of Jindal giving up on the Louisiana governorship after just one term in order to run for president......he would have to skip reelection in Nov. 2011 if he wants to run in the 2012 primaries" post here.

even if he were to lose the primary and not be selected for VP, he would still probably have a decent shot of taking Landrieu's seat in 2014 at the age of just 43.  it's a risk for him, but one well worth taking, IMO.

[pragmatic liberal]

We'll see what happens in two weeks. I still think Huckabee is going to be in a stronger position. He'll be in the public spotlight for the next couple of years through his new Fox News TV show, he has a large PAC, he has a big evangelical and populist following (which has rapidly become the GOP base). Moreover, I think if the alternative is Palin, even the establishment may decide to back Huckabee (keeping with their pattern of supporting the runner-up from the last cycle, even one they previously hated).

[ShadowRocket]

I think Thune would fare well in an Iowa Caucus.

[Person Man]

We'll see what happens in two weeks. I still think Huckabee is going to be in a stronger position. He'll be in the public spotlight for the next couple of years through his new Fox News TV show, he has a large PAC, he has a big evangelical and populist following (which has rapidly become the GOP base). Moreover, I think if the alternative is Palin, even the establishment may decide to back Huckabee (keeping with their pattern of supporting the runner-up from the last cycle, even one they previously hated).

Neat observation....but wasn't Romney the "Runner Up" in this election? Or was it really the Huckster?

[Associate Justice PiT]

We'll see what happens in two weeks. I still think Huckabee is going to be in a stronger position. He'll be in the public spotlight for the next couple of years through his new Fox News TV show, he has a large PAC, he has a big evangelical and populist following (which has rapidly become the GOP base). Moreover, I think if the alternative is Palin, even the establishment may decide to back Huckabee (keeping with their pattern of supporting the runner-up from the last cycle, even one they previously hated).

Neat observation....but wasn't Romney the "Runner Up" in this election? Or was it really the Huckster?

     How many runner-ups actually get the nod next time without being put on the ticket the first time? There's McCain, but his nomination in 2008 was far from a fait accompli.

[Mr. Morden]

We'll see what happens in two weeks. I still think Huckabee is going to be in a stronger position. He'll be in the public spotlight for the next couple of years through his new Fox News TV show, he has a large PAC, he has a big evangelical and populist following (which has rapidly become the GOP base). Moreover, I think if the alternative is Palin, even the establishment may decide to back Huckabee (keeping with their pattern of supporting the runner-up from the last cycle, even one they previously hated).

Neat observation....but wasn't Romney the "Runner Up" in this election? Or was it really the Huckster?

     How many runner-ups actually get the nod next time without being put on the ticket the first time? There's McCain, but his nomination in 2008 was far from a fait accompli.

Reagan and Dole (Dole's case is complicated, because he was put on the ticket in '76, but didn't get the nomination until 1996, following his being the runner up in '88)......4 of the last 5 GOP nominees (Reagan, GHW Bush, Dole, and McCain) got the GOP nomination after having been the runner up in the previous competitive GOP nomination cycle, regardless of whether they were on the ticket before.  Yeah, it wasn't really a fait accompli in each of those cases that each of those guys would win, but that's a heck of a trend.

[Associate Justice PiT]

We'll see what happens in two weeks. I still think Huckabee is going to be in a stronger position. He'll be in the public spotlight for the next couple of years through his new Fox News TV show, he has a large PAC, he has a big evangelical and populist following (which has rapidly become the GOP base). Moreover, I think if the alternative is Palin, even the establishment may decide to back Huckabee (keeping with their pattern of supporting the runner-up from the last cycle, even one they previously hated).

Neat observation....but wasn't Romney the "Runner Up" in this election? Or was it really the Huckster?

     How many runner-ups actually get the nod next time without being put on the ticket the first time? There's McCain, but his nomination in 2008 was far from a fait accompli.

Reagan and Dole (Dole's case is complicated, because he was put on the ticket in '76, but didn't get the nomination until 1996, following his being the runner up in '88)......4 of the last 5 GOP nominees (Reagan, GHW Bush, Dole, and McCain) got the GOP nomination after having been the runner up in the previous competitive GOP nomination cycle, regardless of whether they were on the ticket before.  Yeah, it wasn't really a fait accompli in each of those cases that each of those guys would win, but that's a heck of a trend.

     As I recall Rockefeller did not run in 1980 & Quayle did not run in 1996. Fact is, being the runner-up last time probably does not give odds as good as being the running mate/VP does (though it is a definite boon).