IN: Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead by 2%

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Indiana President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-10-20

Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Rowan]

Don't buy it.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Don't buy it.

I don't as well. But the last poll to come out for IN was 2 weeks ago. I guess we will have to wait and see if another poll backs it up.

[Kalimantan]

Don't buy it.

You don't buy any polls these days. Don't know why you bother coming to this forum.

[Rowan]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

[Kalimantan]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

Thats a better critique of the poll. What should party ID be?

[Josh/Devilman88]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

Maybe people are feeling very Democratic these days.

[Rowan]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

Thats a better critique of the poll. What should party ID be?

The party ID in the 2004 Exit Poll was:

R 46
D 32
I 22

So R +14, so a 15 point swing to the Democrats? Um no.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

Thats a better critique of the poll. What should party ID be?

The party ID in the 2004 Exit Poll was:

R 46
D 32
I 22

So R +14, so a 15 point swing to the Democrats? Um no.

You don't get how PPP does their polling do you. They call random people and ask them the question. They ask what Party they are in, and that is what the people said. It isn't like they cherry picked the Democrats out.

[Rowan]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

Thats a better critique of the poll. What should party ID be?

The party ID in the 2004 Exit Poll was:

R 46
D 32
I 22

So R +14, so a 15 point swing to the Democrats? Um no.

You don't get how PPP does their polling do you. They call random people and ask them the question. They ask what Party they are in, and that is what the people said. It isn't like they cherry picked the Democrats out.

But what it does show is that they got a bad sample and more than likely called too many people in Indianapolis.

[Kalimantan]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

Thats a better critique of the poll. What should party ID be?

The party ID in the 2004 Exit Poll was:

R 46
D 32
I 22

So R +14, so a 15 point swing to the Democrats? Um no.

Do you know what the registration statistics are? Consider that Obama is campaigning here and he is a fellow mid-westerner, turnout is going to be shifted towards the Dem's even if registration has stayed the same.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

Thats a better critique of the poll. What should party ID be?

The party ID in the 2004 Exit Poll was:

R 46
D 32
I 22

So R +14, so a 15 point swing to the Democrats? Um no.

You don't get how PPP does their polling do you. They call random people and ask them the question. They ask what Party they are in, and that is what the people said. It isn't like they cherry picked the Democrats out.

But what it does show is that they got a bad sample and more than likely called too many people in Indianapolis.

It maybe that, I'm not sure. But like I said the last poll in IN was 2 weeks ago. Lets wait to see another IN poll.

[TheGlobalizer]

McCain +2 is more likely.

[Alcon]

Pretty much every other poll that reported party affiliation this year in Indiana has shown it within a few points of tied.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Pretty much every other poll that reported party affiliation this year in Indiana has shown it within a few points of tied.

Congrats on #25,000.

[Alcon]

Pretty much every other poll that reported party affiliation this year in Indiana has shown it within a few points of tied.

Congrats on #25,000.

Oh, holy crap, kill me

Thanks

[Reds4]

Also interesting is that among those who they talked to in 04 they Voted 52% for Bush and 38% for Kerry... Bush won by 20 points... so it looks like did oversample Dems..

[riceowl]

Pretty much every other poll that reported party affiliation this year in Indiana has shown it within a few points of tied.

Congrats on #25,000.

Oh, holy crap, kill me

Thanks

aw, i noticed that last night when it was 24998.  oh dear, i need a vacation.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Also interesting is that among those who they talked to in 04 they Voted 52% for Bush and 38% for Kerry... Bush won by 20 points... so it looks like did oversample Dems..

10% said they didn't vote.

[Alcon]

Also interesting is that among those who they talked to in 04 they Voted 52% for Bush and 38% for Kerry... Bush won by 20 points... so it looks like did oversample Dems..

It's a possibility, but with his approval ratings as they are, there's a pretty darn good chance people just lied their faces off.

Remember those post-primary "if you had to do it over" polls this year, where Obama was ahead for the re-vote California has magically been -- in retrospect -- a tie?

[Lunar]

Just look at the party ID of the poll:

D 38%
R 37%
I 25%

That is just TERRIBLE and irresponsible.

Thats a better critique of the poll. What should party ID be?

The party ID in the 2004 Exit Poll was:

R 46
D 32
I 22

So R +14, so a 15 point swing to the Democrats? Um no.

You can shoot me if that exit polling data holds this year.  Self-ID for Democrats must have shot up, I'd stake my life on it.

[Verily]

Pretty much every other poll that reported party affiliation this year in Indiana has shown it within a few points of tied.

Was there a state-level exit poll in 2006? I suspect the ID would have looked very different from 2004...

[TheresNoMoney]

The internals look way off.

[Alcon]

Pretty much every other poll that reported party affiliation this year in Indiana has shown it within a few points of tied.

Was there a state-level exit poll in 2006? I suspect the ID would have looked very different from 2004...

Nah, since Lugar's lone opponent was a Libertarian.

[Rococo4]

Obama is not ahead by 2%.  PPP has been oversampling Democrats all year to get these results.  This Democratic pollster then goes around "teasing" their results to build suspense for their polls designed to depress Republicans.  That is what they do as a partisan pollster.

It is partly the GOPs own fault for not having their own fake pollster to push fake results.