Obama wins Future Timeline

[Daniel Z]

Obama/Biden defeats McCain/Palin

Obama: 289
McCain: 249

January 20 2009: Obama gives his inaugural address which is widley praised and compared to Kennedy. Obama's approval ratings stand at 64% approve 30% disapprove

Obama with the support of the Democratic House and Senate pass a serise of economic regulations as well as tax cuts for the middle class (although not as high as promised) and tax hikes for those makeing over $250,000 a year.

Congress also passes funding for increased research for alternative energy focusing on Wind, Solar, and biofules. The bill only squeeks by due to criticism from Republicans who say that the bill does not address curent concerns due to the absence of new drilling,  and increased production of nucular energy.

Health Care and Social Security reform are still at a standstill.

In 2009 Justices Stevens and Ginsberg retire. Obama replaces them with Merrick Garland and Sonia Sotomayor. To the suprise of many Obama chose two centerist for the court, which upset some on the left, but both were confermed with almost no opposition.

At the end of the first year of the Obama Presidency the economy continues to struggle with the Dow at 9300 and unemployment at 6.5%. American troops are still in Afghanistan and Iraq, although troop levels in Iraq are down to 75,000.

In spite of the weak economy Obama is seen as a President who is  actively working to solve the nation's problems, so his approval rateings remain fairly strong.

Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 38%

In his first state of the Union address Obama pledges to push for Health care reform and continue to pull troops out of Iraq.

However like in 2009 Congress in unable to pass a bill provideing Health Care for all Americans.

There was better news in Iraq where American troops was drawn down to 40,000, but Afghanistan falls further in to Anarchy causing President Obama to add an additonal 25,000 troops.

The economy continues to struggle with gas prices reaching $5.25 in the summer. The Dow has not been able to get over the 10000 point mark and was at 9700 at the mid-term election. Unemployment reached 7% in the month of October.

With the continued struggles of the economy and Obama's approval down to a personal low of 47% Republicans see a great opportunity to make serious gains in Congress. Adding to the Democrats problems elements of the far left are growning more and more upset with America's continued ocupation of Iraq and the escalating war in Afghanistan.

To the suprise of many the Democrats are able to avoid net losses in the Senate due to a few Democratic victories in open Republican seats. Republicans are able to make gains in the house, picking up 19 seats.

Senate: 56 (D)-2 (I)-42(R)
House: 232(D)-203(R)

Up Next 2011 and 2012 and maybe an international update.

[Daniel Z]

The World 2009-2014

Canada: The economic troubles in the US have greatly effected Canada as well. By fall 2010 unemployment reached 8%. Seeing weakness in the Harper government the Liberals, NDP, and the Bloc bring the government down. As expected the Conservatives lose power, and lost all their seats in the meritime and in Quebec. The new make up of the house of commons is 118 liberals, 90 Conservatives, 52 Bloc, and 48 NDP. The new PM is Bob Rae. Rae is still in power in 2014.

Mexico: Imigration from Mexico continues to be steady, due to a combination of a weak Mexican economy and a lack of action from the Obama administration. Due to the weak economy Obrador is swept in to office causing tension between US business intrest and the Mexican Government.

Cuba: As of 2014 Raul Castro is Still in power, although Fidel died in 2010. On the surface relations between the US and Cuba remain the same as they had been over the past fifty years, but behind the scenes Obama is negotiating the lifting of the trade embargo. However Obama will delay any announcement until after the 2014 election, for fear of upseting Cuban voters in Florida.

Venezuela: To the suprise of many in the US Hugo Chavez steps down after his term ends in 2012. The COPEI wins the election and sets out to liberalize the economy. The US imports large quantites of Venezuelan oil.

Rest of South America: Brazil continues to rise as South America's largest power. Revolutionary movements grow in Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia. Economic conditions cause the opposition parties in Chile, Argentina, and Uraguay to gain power.

Africa: Conditions in Africa have improved slightly with the spred of AIDS slowing and improvements in agriculture reducing famine. Mubarak loss hold on power in Egypt, and in order to avoid riots elections were called resulting with a coalition center right parties with the Muslim Brotherhood forming the oposition. UN peacekeepers enter Darfur in 2010. In 2009 Morgan Tsvangirai was assasinated causing riots, which eventualy caused the overthrow of the government shortly after Mugabe's death in 2010. Islamist gain power in Muritania, Mali, and Somalia (which is probably an improvement in Somalia's case since they now have a semi-functioning government). Nigeria and Angola move twords stability and growth.

EU: The EU continues to gain power over its members, although significant if diminished euroscepticism remains. Iceland, Norway, Macedonia, Montenegro, Croatia, Albania, Turkey, and the Ukraine join the EU.

Serbia: Becomes increasingly nationalistic and becomes closer to Russia. Serbia has threatened to invade Kosovo, but to do so would risk NATO involvement.

Bosnia: conditions improve, but are not yet up to EU standards.

Russia: The Russia constitution is amended to allow Putin to run for President in 2012, which does and wins. Prowestern governments in the caucasus are overthrown and replaced by prorussian regimes. Russia's obvious involvement is condemed by the west, but ultimatly nothing is done. Russia accepts Ukraine's entry into the EU in exchange for the US canceling the missile defense shield.  Moldova becomes a Russian puppet state. Belarus rejoins Russia in 2013.

Iran: Ahmadinejad is defeated in the 2009 election and is replaced by Mehdi Karroubi, who with the blessing of the Ayatollah negotiates a nucular deal with the US, EU, and Russia where Iran gets free nucular power in exchange for strict inspections.

Saudi Arabia/Jorden/Syria/UAE/Oman/Yemen/Bahrain/Kuwait/Qatar: Current regimes stay in power with slow movement twords Democracy and increased islamist activity in Saudi Arabia, Yemen and UAE.

Lebanon: In 2009 Hezbollah gains almost total control, causing mass exodus of Lebanese Christians and Jews to Isreal, Jorden, the EU and the US.

Isreal: Tzipi Livni becomes PM of Isreal. Due to the Iranian nucular agreement war with Iran is avoided. Isreal bombs and invades Lebanon in 2010 due to Hezbollah fireing missiles and sending suicide bombers into isreal. Leabanon is burnt to the ground and in 2011 Isreal and Lebanon call a cease fire, but sporadic violence is still common. The creation of a Palistinian state is delayed due to increased Isreali-Palistinian violence due to the Lebanon war.

Pakistan: By 2014 the Zardari (who has become a bit of a strongman like Musharraf)  government has lossed control of all but the southern part of Pakistan and the area surounding Islamabad. The Northern and western parts of the country are controled by the tribal warlords, the Taliban, and even the US in a few parts. Starting in 2010 the US millitary began doing raids into pakistan contributing to the undermining of the Zardari government. Thankfully Pakistans nukes do remain in the hands of the government.

India: India continues to make great strides in economic development. The military with the help of the US focuses heavily on modernizing. India becomes the US's biggest partner in the region.

China: China's military and economic assent continues, but with no further steps twords Democracy and very slow progress in Human rights. China grows its space program and plans to send a man to the moon by 2020.

Korea: Korea remains divided with the North continuing to promise to open up and then backing out.

Japan: In fear of China's growing power Japan amends its constitution to allow for the creation of a military.

Taiwan: In a suprise move China allows Taiwan to declare its independence. Taiwan and China open diplomatic relations, Taiwan is admitted into the UN, and is allowed to play as Taiwan in international sporting events.

Myanmar: Under international pressure Myanmar opens up a little, but military remains in power.

Bangladesh: The Awami League wins the 2008 elections and puts a program of economic liberalization into place which is met with mixed results as growth increased, yet the poverty rate is falling very slowly.

Thailand: In 2009 the military once again stages a coup. Elections are called in 2011 where promonarchy forces win.

Cambodia: The world applaudes as the government cracks down on sex tourism, but the country remains in deep poverty.

Vietnam: Growth continues (although slowed by world economic crises) many observers predict Vietnam will be the next Asian Tiger.

Indonisia: Islamist rebelion is begining to take hold is some isolated parts of the country.

Philipines: Many Islamic countries recognize the independence of the Islamic areas of the Philipines.

Australia: Defying the international trend the incumbent labor party is re-elected in spite of the world wide economic troubles. The biggest gains in the election was the conservative National Party who increased their representation to 20 seats.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Australia: Defying the international trend the incumbent labor party is reelected in spite of the world wide economic troubles. The biggest gains in the election was the conservative National Party who increased their representation to 20 seats.

So let me get this straight, the country based National Party somehow manages to win an extra 10 seats in the 2010 Federal Election (which is when the next Federal Election is to take place in Australia), even though they have not reached that mark since the 1996 Federal Election or thereabouts. I'm sorry my friend but that is unplausible. If anything is to occur to the National Party by 2014 its merger with the Liberal Party, which they're in a coalition with.

[Hash]

The World 2009-2014

Canada: The economic troubles in the US have greatly effected Canada as well. By fall 2010 unemployment reached 8%. Seeing weakness in the Harper government the Liberals, NDP, and the Bloc bring the government down. As expected the Conservatives lose power, and lost all their seats in the meritime and in Quebec. The new make up of the house of commons is 118 liberals, 90 Conservatives, 52 Bloc, and 48 NDP. The new PM is Bob Rae. Rae is still in power in 2014.

wtflol

If Bob Rae somehow wins the Liberal leadership, his record in Ontario won't make Canadians elect him, especially in tough economic times. Bob Rae is the easiest person to destroy after Dion.
Secondly, the Conservatives will always have seat in the Maritimes. If they lose seats like C-C-MV, Fundy Royal, NB Southwest, then they might as well disband. Secondly, the Conservatives won't be wiped out in Quebec. They lost this time around because Harper screwed up. But they won't lose stuff like Beauce unless Maxime Bernier eats a constituent.
The seat makeup makes no sense either, sorry.

Also, what's happening in France?

[Хahar 🤔]

But they won't lose stuff like Beauce unless Maxime Bernier eats a constituent.

That's not out of the question.

[dead0man]

My biggest problem is gas being $5.25 next summer.  Not going to happen.

[Daniel Z]

My biggest problem is gas being $5.25 next summer.  Not going to happen.

I don't think it will make it any better for you, but gas reaches $5.25 in summer 2010 not next summer.

[Daniel Z]

The World 2009-2014

Canada: The economic troubles in the US have greatly effected Canada as well. By fall 2010 unemployment reached 8%. Seeing weakness in the Harper government the Liberals, NDP, and the Bloc bring the government down. As expected the Conservatives lose power, and lost all their seats in the maritime and in Quebec. The new make up of the house of commons is 118 liberals, 90 Conservatives, 52 Bloc, and 48 NDP. The new PM is Bob Rae. Rae is still in power in 2014.

wtflol

If Bob Rae somehow wins the Liberal leadership, his record in Ontario won't make Canadians elect him, especially in tough economic times. Bob Rae is the easiest person to destroy after Dion.
Secondly, the Conservatives will always have seat in the Maritimes. If they lose seats like C-C-MV, Fundy Royal, NB Southwest, then they might as well disband. Secondly, the Conservatives won't be wiped out in Quebec. They lost this time around because Harper screwed up. But they won't lose stuff like Beauce unless Maxime Bernier eats a constituent.
The seat makeup makes no sense either, sorry.

Also, what's happening in France?

Your probably right. After the election the Conservatives remain shutout of Newfoundland and lose their seat on PEI and all their seats in Nova Scotia. In NB they lose Fredericton, Miramichi, and Saint John. Conservatives fall to four seats in Quebec.

In France the first round of the 2012 election: UMP: 30 Socialist 26 FN 17
The Second round: UMP 56 Socialist 44 Sarkozy is reelected as President.
As with the rest of the west France's economy struggles in 2009 and 2010, however by the time of the 2012 election the French economy has rebounded giving Sarkozy a relatively easy reelection.

[Daniel Z]

Australia: Defying the international trend the incumbent labor party is reelected in spite of the world wide economic troubles. The biggest gains in the election was the conservative National Party who increased their representation to 20 seats.

So let me get this straight, the country based National Party somehow manages to win an extra 10 seats in the 2010 Federal Election (which is when the next Federal Election is to take place in Australia), even though they have not reached that mark since the 1996 Federal Election or thereabouts. I'm sorry my friend but that is unplausible. If anything is to occur to the National Party by 2014 its merger with the Liberal Party, which they're in a coalition with.

I confess that I don't know much about Aulstralian politics. The Nationals gain only three seats instead of the ten, but Labor and Rudd stay in power.

[Hash]

The World 2009-2014

Canada: The economic troubles in the US have greatly effected Canada as well. By fall 2010 unemployment reached 8%. Seeing weakness in the Harper government the Liberals, NDP, and the Bloc bring the government down. As expected the Conservatives lose power, and lost all their seats in the maritime and in Quebec. The new make up of the house of commons is 118 liberals, 90 Conservatives, 52 Bloc, and 48 NDP. The new PM is Bob Rae. Rae is still in power in 2014.

wtflol

If Bob Rae somehow wins the Liberal leadership, his record in Ontario won't make Canadians elect him, especially in tough economic times. Bob Rae is the easiest person to destroy after Dion.
Secondly, the Conservatives will always have seat in the Maritimes. If they lose seats like C-C-MV, Fundy Royal, NB Southwest, then they might as well disband. Secondly, the Conservatives won't be wiped out in Quebec. They lost this time around because Harper screwed up. But they won't lose stuff like Beauce unless Maxime Bernier eats a constituent.
The seat makeup makes no sense either, sorry.

Also, what's happening in France?

Your probably right. After the election the Conservatives remain shutout of Newfoundland and lose their seat on PEI and all their seats in Nova Scotia. In NB they lose Fredericton, Miramichi, and Saint John. Conservatives fall to four seats in Quebec.

There are still seats in Nova Scotia that the Conservatives wouldn't lose.

In France the first round of the 2012 election: UMP: 30 Socialist 26 FN 17
The Second round: UMP 56 Socialist 44 Sarkozy is reelected as President.
As with the rest of the west France's economy struggles in 2009 and 2010, however by the time of the 2012 election the French economy has rebounded giving Sarkozy a relatively easy reelection.

OK, I'm sorry, but there is no way the FN will poll 17% in any world at this point. They'll probably poll like 5%. But there is no way they reach 17%, especially if Le Pen doesn't run.

Sarkozy is not winning 56%. He's still too divisive and has some very passionate haters out there that he can't win 56%.

[dead0man]

My biggest problem is gas being $5.25 next summer.  Not going to happen.

I don't think it will make it any better for you, but gas reaches $5.25 in summer 2010 not next summer.

meh, slightly more likely I suppose.  Still, probably not going to happen.

[Daniel Z]

2012 Republican Primaries

In the six months following the 2010 midterm elections seven major Republicans declare their candidacy for the 2012 Republican nomination: Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, and 75 year old Texas Rep Ron Paul.

May 11, 2011 SUSA Poll
Palin 28%
Romney 22%
Crist 8%
Santorum 6%
Paul 2%
Corker 2%
Pawlenty 2%
Undecided 30%

In order to avoid possible embarrassment the front runner Palin, Romney and Crist all decide to skip the Ames Strawpoll. The other candidates all decide to invest heavily into the Strawpoll, and it is rumored that a poor showing may cause some candidates to drop out of the race.

2011 Ames Strawpoll
Santorum 38%
Palin 23%
Pawlenty 20%
Paul 8%
Romney 6%
Corker 4%
Crist 1%

Due to Palin's strong showing despite skipping the Strawpoll the media views Palin as the winner. Corker drops out due to his poor showing and endorses Pawlenty.

In the final months before the primaries the candidates focus even more on the early states. Santorum and Pawlenty more or less move to Iowa. Crist focuses on South Carolina and the big Super Tuesday states. Romney focuses on New Hampshire, Nevada, and several Super Tuesday states. Palin attempts to run everywhere, although her campaign is forced to shut off media contact due to a series of disastrous interviews and press conferences by Palin which causes her poll numbers to go down.

December 15, 2011 SUSA Poll
Romney 26%
Palin 21%
Crist 16%
Santorum 10%
Pawlenty 9%
Paul 3%
Undecided 15%

Iowa Caucus
Pawlenty 31% 18 delegates
Palin 28% 13 delegates
Santorum 18% 6 delegates
Romney 13% 3 delegates
Other 10%

-Santorum drops out

New Hampshire Primaries
Romney 43% 17 delegates
Palin 20% 5 delegates
Pawlenty 16% 1 delegate
Crist 10 % 1 delegate
Other 11%

South Carolina Primary
Crist 45% 32 delegates
Palin 33% 15 delegates
Romney 13%
Paul 5%
Other 4%

Nevada Caucus
Romney 59% 22 delegates
Palin 19 % 6 delegates
Crist 10% 3 delegates
Paul 9% 3 delegates
Others 3%

Pre Super Tuesday Delagate count
Romney: 42
Palin: 39
Crist: 36
Pawlenty: 19
Paul: 3

Super Tuesday

Alabama Primary
Romney: 38% 25 delegates
Palin 36% 20 delegates
Crist 18%
Paul: 5%
Other 4%

Alaska Caucus
Palin: 72% 21 delegates
Paul: 14% 3 delegates
Romney: 10% 2 delegates
Pawlenty 2%
Other: 2%

Arizona
Romney 53% 50 delegates
Palin 29%
Crist 10%
Paul: 4%
Other: 4%

Arkansas
Palin: 48% 25 delegates
Romney 30% 6 delegates
Crist: 12%
Pawlenty: 5%
Other: 5%

California Primary
Romney: 42% 119 delegates
Palin: 28%
Crist: 15%
Paul: 8%
Other: 7%

Colorado Caucus
Romney: 65% 22 delegates
Palin: 28%
Pawlenty: 4%
Paul: 2%
Other: 1%

Connecticut
Mitt Romney: 68% 27delegates
Palin: 15%
Crist: 7%
Pawlenty: 6%
Other: 4%

Delaware Primary
Romney: 56% 18 delegates
Palin: 20%
Crist: 12%
Pawlenty: 8%
Other: 4%

Florida Primary
Crist 48% 114 delegates
Romney 23%
Palin: 21%
Paul: 5%
Other: 3%

Georgia Primary
Romney 35% 39 delegates
Palin 30% 6 delegates
Crist 28% 3 delegates
Paul 5%
Other 2%

Illinois
Romney 48% 54delegates
Palin 23% 2 delegates
Pawlenty 17%
Crist 8%
Other 4%

Massachusetts Primary
Romney: 68% 30 delegates
Palin: 18% 8 delegates
Crist: 9%
Pawlenty: 3%
Other: 2%

Michigan Primary
Romney 53% 48 delegates
Palin 38% 11 delegates
Pawlenty 12% 1 delegate
Crist 5%
Other 2%

Minnesota Caucus
Pawlenty: 32% 38 delegates
Romney: 30%
Palin: 22%
Paul: 9%
Other: 7%

Missouri Caucus
Romney: 36% 58 delegates
Palin: 35%
Crist: 17%
Pawlenty: 7%
Other: 5%

Montana Caucus
Palin: 32% 25 delegates
Romney 27%
Paul: 20%
Pawlenty 15%
Other: 6%

New Jersey Primary
Romney: 50% 52 delegates
Palin: 25%
Crist: 15%
Pawlenty: 6%
Other 4%

New York Primary
Romney: 54% 101 delegates
Palin: 23%
Crist: 12%
Pawlenty: 6%
Other 5%

North Dakota Caucus
Pawlenty: 29% 8 delegates
Palin: 28% 6 delegates
Romney: 27% 6 delegates
Paul: 11%: 3 delegates
Other: 5%

Oklahoma Primary
Palin: 47% 29 delegates
Romney: 42% 9 delegates
Crist: 5%
Paul: 3%
Other: 3%

Tennessee Primary
Palin: 45% 30 delegates
Romney: 41% 22 delegates
Crist:8%
Paul:5%
Other: 3%

Utah
Romney: 90% 36 delegates
Palin: 5%
Paul" 3%
Pawlenty: 1%
Other: 1%

West Virginia Caucus
Palin 50% 18 delegates
Romney: 37%
Paul 9%
Crist: 3%
Other: 1%

After Super Tuesday Crist Pawlenty, and Palin drop out giving the Nomination to Romney
 

Romney
Palin
Pawlenty
Crist

Romney selects Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal for his running mate.

[Psychic Octopus]

My biggest problem is gas being $5.25 next summer.  Not going to happen.

LOL

[Landslide Lyndon]

I very much doubt that Crist can win the South Carolina primary, or that Romney will win Alabama and Georgia.

Also, Missouri is a primary, not a caucus.

[Psychic Octopus]

BUMP

Holy Sh**t, he wasn't far off in predictions. He accuarately predicted Sonia Sotomayor's ascension to the Supreme Court.

But the unemployment numbers and the international update...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Holy Sh**t, he wasn't far off in predictions. He accuarately predicted Sonia Sotomayor's ascension to the Supreme Court.

A lot of people predicted that, though.

[Vepres]

Obama would have 70%+ approvals if unemployment were at 6% now