Mason-Dixon Polls: OH, WV, WI

[Rowan]

OH
McCain 46%
Obama 45%

WV
McCain 47%
Obama 41%

WI
Obama 51%
McCain 39%

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/19/1567070.aspx

[Kalimantan]

Joy joy joy

[The Mikado]

OH
McCain 46%
Obama 45%

WV
McCain 47%
Obama 41%

WI
Obama 51%
McCain 39%

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/19/1567070.aspx

All looks pretty accurate to me.  Ohio dead even, Wisconsin double digits for Obama, WV a lead, but not a huge one, for McCain.  I can deal with that.

[Wiz in Wis]

Yes John... spend some more $$ here. Wisconsin is ripe for the plucking!!!

Sigh... I am used to being a swing state, but this year there was never that pit in my stomach that Wisconsin could flip to the Reps. Oh well, guess its only the Assembly for me this year.

[Tender Branson]

Man, Ohio is stubborn !

It probably depends on the ground game on Election Day - or which party got the better hackers.

FYI: Mason-Dixon will also have a South Dakota poll out by Wednesday.

[Sam Spade]

Ohio/West Virginia - "Obama is a black, you see."

Wisconsin - Not really surprising, but remember that the state is tough to poll.

[Wall St. Wiz]

Mixed bag for McCain. It confirms tightening in WV and the fact that Wisconsin is out of reach.  However, Ohio is hanging strong and I think if Obama hasn't taken the lead by now then he probably won't on election day.

I'd like to see another FL poll from them, they have consistently had it a 1-2 point race.  I would take that right now.  The problem is CO and VA.

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama wins WI easily. McCain wins WV by about 5%.

I still think Obama wins Ohio in the end, most polls show him leading by a few percentage points right now and the Obama campaign will have a better GOTV.

[JohnCA246]

well crap.

[Ty440]

well crap.

Did you actually believe Obama would carry Ohio?

[TheresNoMoney]

Did you actually believe Obama would carry Ohio?

Yes, the newly registered voters will allow him to carry the state.

[Brittain33]

well crap.

Did you actually believe Obama would carry Ohio?

Of course Obama can carry Ohio. He has a great ground game and the polls are always very close. It's frustrating to Democrats how the state won't swing past a certain point there like it has in nearly every other contested state, but it doesn't mean we expect to lose, although it's a reasonable possibility.

[TheresNoMoney]

One thing I do remember about Ohio is that both Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland outperformed their poll numbers on Election Day 2006. 

[Rowan]

Did you actually believe Obama would carry Ohio?

Yes, the newly registered voters will allow him to carry the state.

You mean those 200,000 registrations that don't match SSN's?

[Rowan]

One thing I do remember about Ohio is that both Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland outperformed their poll numbers on Election Day 2006. 

Or that John Kerry underperformed.

[Ty440]

One thing I do remember about Ohio is that both Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland outperformed their poll numbers on Election Day 2006. 

One thing I do remember about Ohio is that Obama under-performed his poll numbers on Super Tuesday.

[Brittain33]

Did you actually believe Obama would carry Ohio?

Yes, the newly registered voters will allow him to carry the state.

You mean those 200,000 registrations that don't match SSN's?

It's not SSNs, it's any character that appears in the name or address, including that of "Joe the Plumber" whose name is misspelled in some state records.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WV
McCain 47%
Obama 41%

Appropriately lukewarm numbers for each candidate.

[Brittain33]

One thing I do remember about Ohio is that both Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland outperformed their poll numbers on Election Day 2006. 

One thing I do remember about Ohio is that Obama under-performed his poll numbers on Super Tuesday.

Primary polling is inherently more volatile than general election polling, because people are much more likely to change their minds within a party than across party lines.

I'll raise you Al Gore, who also overperformed his poll numbers in Ohio in 2000.

[opebo]

Obama wins WI, McCain wins OH and WV, just as expected.

[Ty440]

Obama wins WI, McCain wins OH and WV, just as expected.

I agree. Now my question is , Is Virginia and North Carolina for the first time in a century gonna be more democratic than Ohio?

[Rowan]

Did you actually believe Obama would carry Ohio?

Yes, the newly registered voters will allow him to carry the state.

You mean those 200,000 registrations that don't match SSN's?

It's not SSNs, it's any character that appears in the name or address, including that of "Joe the Plumber" whose name is misspelled in some state records.

Okay, you can stake your hopes on these "new voters" and see if you win Ohio.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obama wins WI, McCain wins OH and WV, just as expected.

I agree. Now my question is , Is Virginia and North Carolina for the first time in a century gonna be more democratic than Ohio?

Both states were more Democratic than Ohio as recently as 1992.

[Kalimantan]

well crap.

Did you actually believe Obama would carry Ohio?

Is McCain at 46% supposed to worry us?

[GMantis]

Mixed bag for McCain. It confirms tightening in WV and the fact that Wisconsin is out of reach.  However, Ohio is hanging strong and I think if Obama hasn't taken the lead by now then he probably won't on election day.

So you agree that McCain won't win any Kerry/Gore states, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia?