18 days away, what's your prediction?
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Author Topic: 18 days away, what's your prediction?  (Read 5483 times)
Iosif
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« on: October 18, 2008, 07:12:45 PM »
October 18 2008



364 - 174

Obama wins by 6%.
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panda_priest
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2008, 07:20:10 PM »


Obama - 277
McCain - 251

McCain wins popular vote.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2008, 07:25:06 PM »


291-247 Obama

If the election were held today, it would be much worse for McCain.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2008, 07:28:28 PM »


Obama 291
McCain 247

I think the polls will tighten and McCain will not get as blown out as some are predicting. North Carolina and West VA come back to him narrowly and Ohio doesn't flip, as he seems to have a hard time winning there even when he was up by 8 nationwide.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2008, 07:35:57 PM »
I'm sticking with my prediction:

McCain   273   

Obama   265
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pepper11
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2008, 08:19:41 PM »



305-233 Mac
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Ty440
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2008, 08:22:39 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2008, 08:24:48 PM by GoldenBoy »

Let's hope your right. Mccain needs a game-changer. I still think there  is ONE more big twist or turn in this election yet to go, and I think this week we will see it.

If there are no more big negative financial surprises, and the DOW stays steady Mccain is in decent shape.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2008, 08:24:57 PM »

Hack post of the year.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2008, 08:25:24 PM »


Something like this...maybe.

OBiden: 318
McPalin: 169
Tossup: 51
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Ty440
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2008, 08:27:33 PM »

Hack statement of the year people swearing Obama would win the New Hampshire primary because he was up by double digits in the polls Smiley
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2008, 08:29:59 PM »
Quote from: Iosif on October 18, 2008, 07:12:45 PM
October 18 2008



364 - 174

Obama wins by 6%.


I agree.
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pepper11
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2008, 09:47:11 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2008, 09:49:31 PM by pepper11 »
Quote from: GoldenBoy on October 18, 2008, 08:27:33 PM

The point of a prediction map is to PREDICT what I think will happen on election day, not the state of the race today.  Maybe I will be wrong, but that doesn't make me a hack.  I just happen to think the race will tighten to a one point McCain national win. And the above is the map I that I think will play out with that margin.   How about we wait until election day to see what happens
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Lunar
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2008, 09:49:12 PM »

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Zarn
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2008, 09:50:20 PM »

No, hack would be McCain winning IL, NY, VT, or MD.
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Workers' Friend
Bob Dole
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2008, 09:52:23 PM »
See my Presidential Prediction below my avatar.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2008, 09:53:26 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2008, 09:55:28 PM by brittain33 »


Obama - 350
McCain - 188

NE-2 is the only one I feel completely blind predicting.

Ohio is my leap of faith, which is different.
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Torie
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2008, 09:54:37 PM »
Quote from: brittain33 on October 18, 2008, 09:53:26 PM


Obama - 350
McCain - 188

NE-2 is the only one I feel completely blind predicting.

Obama wins by 6% eh?
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2008, 09:55:45 PM »
Quote from: Bob Dole on October 18, 2008, 09:52:23 PM
See my Presidential Prediction below my avatar.

McCain >70% in Arizona? >90% in Alaska? Obama >60% in New Mexico? Are you ing serious?
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Hash
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2008, 09:57:16 PM »
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Brittain33
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2008, 09:58:50 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2008, 10:02:24 PM by brittain33 »
Quote from: Torie on October 18, 2008, 09:54:37 PM
Quote from: brittain33 on October 18, 2008, 09:53:26 PM


Obama - 350
McCain - 188

NE-2 is the only one I feel completely blind predicting.

Obama wins by 6% eh?

Yes, I'm toward if not at the bold end of predictions, I recognize.

I favor the Ronnie/Duke prediction, too, but this one is a conscious leap beyond that in optimism (or pessimism, depending on your POV).
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J. J.
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2008, 10:14:26 PM »
Here is actual map, and it should be McCain 274 to Obama 264:
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2008, 10:16:52 PM »
Wake me in 17 days.  I think I have a decent feel as to what's going on, but there's still too many variables.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2008, 10:17:15 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on October 18, 2008, 10:14:26 PM
Here is actual map, and it should be McCain 274 to Obama 264:



Probably the best McCain can do at this point. I can see NC, FL and NV coming back to McCain by election day. Colorado and Virginia are worrying me the most.
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Workers' Friend
Bob Dole
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2008, 10:23:20 PM »
Quote from: Governor Duke, Dirty South on October 18, 2008, 10:17:15 PM
Quote from: J. J. on October 18, 2008, 10:14:26 PM
Here is actual map, and it should be McCain 274 to Obama 264:



Probably the best McCain can do at this point. I can see NC, FL and NV coming back to McCain by election day. Colorado and Virginia are worrying me the most.

Same here.

Is it plausible for McCain to win NH or Minnesota?
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2008, 10:24:42 PM »
Quote from: Governor Duke, Dirty South on October 18, 2008, 10:17:15 PM
Quote from: J. J. on October 18, 2008, 10:14:26 PM
Here is actual map, and it should be McCain 274 to Obama 264:



Probably the best McCain can do at this point. I can see NC, FL and NV coming back to McCain by election day. Colorado and Virginia are worrying me the most.

I'd also put NH into the mix; it is a difficult state to accurately poll.
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