Putting your money where your mouth is in the UK

[Harry Hayfield]

Political Betting.com is a UK blog that deals with the betting side of politics and reported yesterday that the Paddy Power website in Ireland has closed it books on the US presidency and will pay out from today onwards on all Obama bets( which if you placed £100 at 50-1 last June means a very nice payday for you). As a result, they are now concentrating on the states themselves and the markets can be found at http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/usa/

I would like to know whether members agree with the suggestions put forward in those markets and whether they are more accurate than the polls or not?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

They look like they're pretty decent estimations so far as I'm concerned.

Though keep in mind: These odds aren't exactly reflective of what will happen, they're reflective of what people think will happen, and those are two very different things.  The Intrade odds of Mitt Romney being Vice President were terribly inflated because people unrealistically believed he'd be picked (even though it made little political sense), and a $10 bet on Sarah Palin paid out $1,000.

[Franzl]

what happens if McCain wins?